The thing with the margin of error, though, is that you can’t just assume that all of the polls are on the same side of their margins. Some will be one way and some will be the other, and the most likely place for any given poll to be is right in the middle of its margin. So when a poll with a margin of error of three points shows up three points above the average of the other polls, it does shift the overall average upwards.
We have a 60% chance of getting 57 senators. That is also no joke. With GOP in such a poor position I’m sure finding flipping 3 or 4 Republican senators won’t be too difficult.
If Franken and the guy who’s up against Stevens wins then we’ll have 59.
After than our only shot is a win in either Missouri or Georgia. Even though FiveThiryEight lists Georgia at 60% Republican, the Democrat could pull it off with a strong black voter turnout.
Go Franken! If he wins we’ll finally have a real liberal in the senate. Imagine that.
Lawrence O’Donnell over at Huffington Post claims that Colin Powell is going to endorse Obama shortly after tonight’s debate. He doesn’t, however, provide any real evidence supporting that claim. Is anyone else making the same claims? How big a deal would a Powell endorsement be?
I think it would be (one of) the final nails in the coffin for MCain, Powell, no matter his various shady business (Mi Lai, Iraq II) seems to be well respected by most independents and conservatives, if he lends his military cred to Obama it would help his campaign.
On a scale from 0 to 10, I’d give it at least a 7. It would definitely be out of the white noise, might even be worth a point or two in the polls. Anyone looking for one last bit of reassurance that Obama’s trustworthy before voting for him would probably be significantly affected by that.
Also, it would undercut some of the GOP “Obama’s a scary terrorist” shit.
And at this point, there’s about the same amount of evidence for it. Would be cool though.
Powell endorsement predictions have been reported on Huffington’s site several times before. Could be but I won’t hold my breath.
This is not new, the royal “they” were predicting a Powell endorsement for quite a while, and I bet he will endorse Obama. The biggest issue is going to be not politically but psychologically. Powell will basically be saying that Obama is more fit to be President then McCain…Coming from McCains own party and coming from a decorated General this will be a final nail in McCains campaign for president.
Good.
But of course you know what the ultra-right will say right?
Well Powell is just sticking with his own. :rolleyes:
What the Right would really say, if they’re incredibly slimy, is “How can you trust this guy? He’s the one who lied to the UN about the yellow cake uranium! Besides, Powell pals around with professional killers.”
Quite right. Powell has proven himself a gutless panderer from My Lai onwards. He hasn’t the courage or integrity to come out for Obama.
Today’s electoral vote.com results have just a bit of change - none for the better for McCain.
Colorado moves from Barely Dem to Weak Dem
Wisconsin moves from Weak Dem to Strong Dem
So…
In order to get 270 EV’s, McCain must do ALL of the following:
-
Retain the 2 “Barely GOP” states - IN and NC
-
Gain ALL of the “Barely Dem” states - NV, ND, OH, VA, FL
-
Get a combination of 21 EV’s from the “Weak Dem” states:
CO- 9
NM - 5
MN - 10
MO - 11
WV - 5
ME - 4
MN and MO together would do it, otherwise he’d need a combo of 3 states.
NEW TIME/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS
Among likely voters:
COLORADO: Obama 51, McCain 47
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 46
GEORGIA: McCain 53, Obama 45
MISSOURI: McCain 49, Obama 48
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 43
Dates conducted: Oct. 11-14. Error margin: 3.5 points.
FOX is already laying the groundwork, making sure to point out that Powell showed off his “hip-hop dance moves” at the annual African Rising festival, which FOX describes as “a festival in London celebrating African-American music and fashion.”* Why Londoners would want to celebrate African-American music and fashion is left unsaid. A couple of goofy photos of Powell accompany the article. If he does endorse Obama, look for FOX to run a loop of video of him looking like a fool, or of the “well-known rappers” saying something stupid at the festival.
*Nduka Obaigbena, the Nigerian media mogul who organized the travelling festival, describesit as an effort “to highlight the need to focus sustainable solutions on the problems [facing Africa] through massive investment in infrastructure and microfinance in order to rebuild Africa from the ground up”. Which, you know, makes a lot more sense for a former Secretary of State to attend.
Judging what I’m reading from conservative blogs, they’re already seeing a lot they like in the last debate. I predict that they’ll say McCain “finally stepped up,” that this is a “game-changer” that’ll “wow independents and undecideds.”
There’s the obvious question, whether it’s true. But there’s also the question of whether it’ll matter, if he got his base this excited.
Oh, one aspect I forgot: the enthusiasm of the reaction might lead McCain to believe that he has a better chance of winning if he does what he did in the debate in the public sphere. Would that be a correct tack to take?
My Google-fu fails me. Do you have any idea what those Georgia numbers look like if you include Bob Barr?
Electoral vote has some changes today - not all of them bad for McCain! (it will be interesting to see polls that take into account the Oct 15 debate)
Changes:
-
for McCain:
WV moves from Weak Dem to Barely Rep
MO moves from Weak Dem to Barely Dem -
for Obama:
NC moves from weak Rep to Tie
VA moves from barely Dem to Weak Dem
NM moves from weak Dem to Strong Dem
So…
To Win, McCain needs to do **all **of the following:
-
retain the two “barely Rep” states (IN and WV)
-
Take the tied state (NC)
-
Take ALL of the 5 barely Dem states (NV, ND, MO, OH, FL)
-
Get a total of 18 EV’s from the following “weak Dem” states:
CO (9)
MN (10)
ME (4)
VA (13)
From The New Republic:
It appears that McCain is changing his stump speech back to his convention speech and trying to distance himself with Bush.
This upsets me because it is a slightly coherent campaign strategy and I was hoping he would just continue to put out negative ads until election day.
This election has proven to be all about who can deliver change. McCain went ahead in the polls when he promised change at his convention along with his VP who reformed Alaska. Obama has obviously been riding the change horse all election long. What is crucial is that Obama never wavered from his message and knew he had to paint McCain as “more of the same.” McCain, on the other hand, did not attack Obama on his change message. The only line of attack that comes close is the celebrity attack, which implies Obama is all words, meaning he won’t deliver change. For some reason McCain could not stick to this line of attack, and decided to make people scared of Obama. As long as McCain tries to scare people that Obama is foreign and doesn’t try to convince people Obama won’t deliver change, McCain will lose.
Now apparently McCain has gained some sense and is distinguishing himself from Bush. A little to late, but it will still have some effect. If he figures out he needs to challenge Obama on his plan for change, then he might just cut down Obama’s lead.
Well maybe there is something to the rumors after all.
Yeah I still don’t see him swaying too many voters, but Obama’s game is now ball control while the clock runs down and this would be worth at least 3 or 4 days of news cycle possession, if nothing else.