Of course it’s not over 'til it’s over, but I’d be curious to see a cite for this thinking, linked to stated decisions not to actually go out and vote because of it.
Y’know, I know that it is a long thread, but maybe, just maybe, reading just the last one day’s worth of posts might be worth your while. Jus sayin’ is all. :rolleyes:
But to recap for you … the all RV data in the AP poll was a 10 point Obama lead but their “likely voter” screen apparently filters out mostly/exclusively Obama supporters. So this outlier of a plethora of polling should be believed if one thinks that McCain supporters are pumped and will all get to the polls while Obama supporters will mainly not bother voting. If you think the opposite then it is not wrong but it points to an Obama victory by a wide margin.
Meanwhile feel free to enjoy the possible outliers the other way. The Big Ten Battleground results and the Quinipiac results. The truth probably lies somewhere between the AP’s near dead heat and the massive blow-out of these two … which would be a solid Obama win with an electoral blow-out.
There have been many problems pointed out with the poll samples/likely voter issue, but I think there is another that is not getting enough play–this is the first election in my life where people for one candidate want to be able to tell their grandchildren that they voted. Even in states where the outcome is a foregone conclusion–states where people tend to stay home–people are registering for the first time because they want to be part of this, they want to say they helped make it happen. So I tend to think even “complacent” Obama supporters will come out because of the sheer symbolism of the thing, and that that is will also probably skew results some.
I’m actually a bit skeptical of that, Manda, although it would be nice.
I will say that I don’t think that the media telling everybody that the race is neck-and-neck is a bad thing; it seems as though the worst think that could happen is for Obama to wind up like Bart Simpson on election day - losing because all of his supporters assumed he would win and didn’t vote.
I’m not skeptical of it. I don’t even foresee much drop off in voting out west if the networks as good as call it after the central time zone’s polls close. Elections are often called referenda on such and such an issue and this election has such clearly drawn differences between the candidates that I can see anger, hope, and good ol’ all-American bandwagonism (Go Rays! 
) bringing out voters in vast numbers, even if an objective look at the results would say that your vote for the top of the ticket won’t make a difference. “I’ll show those bastards,” has a long history of driving people to the polls.
It’s the general, and you only count once, so nobody is officially forked until they reach the Great Electoral Buffet. And we will have some interesting data on whether polling is at all useful in a rapidly dwindling number of days.
At this point, however, I am confortable saying that Hillary is officially forked.
I also think that the motivation to take part in a(n) historical moment could be a milder form of “I’ll show those bastards,” in the sense that here’s the one real chance in the history of this country’s elections that voters have had to make this happen – and with an extremely viable candidate, I might add – and they’re not going to let it slip away. That’s what some people tell me when I go down to PA and work for the Obama campaign weekends.
Well, he has brought out some Hollywood heavy hitters to breathe some new life into his campaign ads. 
The NRSC thinks McCain is forked! Vote for Elizabeth Dole, or else Obama will have a blank check!
I’m not sure I understand this line from the linked piece:
What the heck is a Bulworth? Does that mean she’s going to arrange for someone to assassinate her?
I think “pulling a Bullworth” is just insiderspeak for rebelling against one’s own staff and going renegade to the press/public.
Ah. After I posted my question, I then began to wonder if “pulling a Bulworth” involved making out with Halle Berry. That would be pretty cool, although wouldn’t play well to her base.
Either way, Todd is such a geek. It makes me happy.
I wasn’t sure which thread to ask this, but this seems a good one. BBC TV tonight has been in Missouri. Someone interviewed – I think it was a radio deejay – mentioned that McCain was up 1% in Missouri, making it a statistical dead heat. Is this true? Palin will be in Saint Louis on Friday, apparently. BBC mentioned a bunch of factories were going to close down between now and the election.
I think it’d be cool if Palin goes off script, especially if she dresses gangsta and delivers her renegade message in rhyme, but it’d be extra cool if she trades tongues with Halle.
NOT so cool if McCain trades tongues with Halle.
MO is currently leaning Dem and has been since last week. Most polls have Obama ahead, and the few that have McCain ahead there are within the MOE, so are basically a tie. Fivethirtyeight projects Obama taking the state.
Thanks. Sounds promising.
They’ve also suggested that the slaughter of the bear cub was committed by Obama supporters to drum up support and make the McCain camp look bad. Although compared to this latest theory, that sounds quite rational.
(I seriously think that the Freepers make the Left Behind folk look sane-or at least, the Freepers are scarier)
They like burros to me.
(Oh, and Obama is totally kick ass in the 7-Election!)
We are working our butts off here to turn Missouri blue. In our area, we still have lots of undecided voters but they are starting to break for Obama. Going to talk to voters in person seems to help more than calling them, because they are more willing to talk/listen. Things do look good. 
Now, if I could only stop stress-eating. ::backs away from cookie jar::