“You have failed me, my droogs. And now you shall pay the penalty.”
Hee of the day from The Caucus:
It is to lawl. 
Texas probably won’t go blue but Georgia might; the latest poll has Obama up a point there. That would be some explanation point and could possibly see Obama over the 400 EV mark.
I suppose the absolute best-case scenario for Obama would be around a 55-40 win in the popular vote with 400EV. This scenario would assume a major blunder by the McCain campaign in the next ten days combined with a highly effective end-game by Obama and a huge GOTV operation. Unlikely everything will go that well of course; perhaps a 15-20% probability.
So the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull isn’t just lipstick… it’s a $10,000/wk makeup artist.
In beauty, as in campaigning, execution is everything.
Oh god. I take it back!
Today’s electoral-vote.com results show a greater degree of forkage than before.
In order to win 270 EV’s, McCain must:
-
Retain all strong and weak GOP states (No barely GOP states to worry about anymore for him!)
-
Gain the two tied states (MT, ND)
-
Gain all 4 “barely Dem” states (NV, MO, NC, FL)
This gives him 221.
He then needs a total of 49 EV’s from the “weak Dem” states:
CO (9)
IN (11)
OH (20)
VA (13)
NH (4)
In other words, he needs to win ALL of CO, IN, OH, VA
It’s a pretty good indication of the forkage that’s afoot for McCain if you think about the makeup artist thing. Here in Stodgy Corporate America Land where I work, people are paid in accordance to their perceived value to the company. Staff members that are thought of as low-skill and easily replaceable like receptionists and janitorial staff are paid next to nothing (note that I’m talking about perception here - people who are great at these jobs are really valuable, but still aren’t paid crap). Going up the chain, people are paid what the company thinks their worth, on up to the most important person in the whole company, without whom we’d be set adrift without any mission statements or action plans whatsoever: The CEO. He’s paid the most because he’s perceived as the most important employee of the company.
So what does this makeup artist story say about the priorities of the McCain campaign?
Well, they might have paid her all at once up-front as part of a contract. If I were dealing with the McCain campaign right now I would seek terms like that.
I doubt that by the hour worked she is getting more than top strategists. It doesn’t seem all that out of line to me. Politics is image, as we all know.
That seems like a stretch to me. Assuming 80 hours over two weeks’ time that’s almost $300 per hour. If you think about the times that she’s actually applying makeup to Caribou Barbie, that’s gotta be more like what, two or three hours per day? Now we’re talkin’ twice that amount.
And hey, I don’t give a rat’s arse what they spend on her. Like I said, I just find it to be indicatave of their priorities.
Personally, I really don’t see Obama winning Texas. But I do think it’s going to be a lot closer than most people expect, and Obama even getting close in Texas would majorly shake up the Republican party, and be a cause for celebration for the Dems.
Now, Obama winning Montana, that wouldn’t surprise me at all, and I intend to do my part to make it happen.
Yeah, I guess. I’m just sayin- a lump sum of say 30,000 for the entire election, paid 10 in Sept and 20 in Oct, or something, during which this person can do nothing else, and she is presumably an expert, also probably using expensive makeup all the damn time and billing for that. It seems a reasonable expense, as hollywood goes.
Unless you know what was covered by the cost, how long she was working before getting paid, etc., it’s hard to say how egregious this expense is, if at all.
I saw Rove on Faux News Wed. night say that he saw polls showing Obama didn’t have a double digit lead in PA. But he didn’t say it was close - I got the impression it was a 9 point lead or something.
I saw the close AP poll in the paper - but on the back pages, not in the big headlines you’d expect if it were believable. I think there was something like 13% undecided, which sounds really high at this point.
Headline: Reagan Appointee and (Recent) McCain Adviser Charles Fried Supports Obama
Fried has, somewhat superfluously, asked the McCain campaign to take his name off the committees on which he had been serving.
Can someone explain what McCain’s state by state strategy is at the moment. A few days I read that he was cutting advertising in Colorado. This sounds really risky because Colorado along with Virginia, Florida and Ohio is probably a must-win state for McCain. The idea presumably was to concentrate on PA though given his double-digit deficit there it doesn’t make much sense. But if indeed McCain is blowing off Colorado why are there events still scheduled there? Why is he still visiting states like Iowa? It’s all rather baffling unless his internal polls are telling a different story from public polls.
John Moody, Executive VP of Fox News, says it’s over (bolding mine):
I read somewhere, found compelling, but can’t take responsibility for the insight that McCain seems to be dumping states with significant early voting for big states like Penna with no early vote option. If he can somehow make a big local flip happen, his efforts are most efficient in a state with no early voting.
But it seems to me what he is doing in Penna is keeping local Obama supporters engaged.
Frankly, the man is out of reasonable options, and so some unreasonable choices are not, er, unreasonable.
It was stupid for McCain and Palin to inject themselves in the Joe The Mugger story by calling this woman, but I can’t see it affecting their campaign (unfortunately).
Sure! First he’s going to tell Colorado that Obama’s a terrorist, then he’s going to tell Iowa Obama’s a terrorist, then he’s going to tell Pennsylvania Obama’s a terrorist…
THIS is how bad it’s gotten! 
"McCain’s advisers acknowledge that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress.”
and
“We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.” The scary thing for the McCain campaign is that they could win Pennsylvania, but if they lose Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, they lose in the Electoral College, 270-268. That’s just stunning. The McCain campaign could win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – and still lose. This is how Obama’s money and organizational advantage has made such a difference: They’ve rewritten the battleground just as they promised.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/24/1588530.aspx