McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked

[Lantern]

OK but it doesn’t explain the campaign schedule. Slate has a mapof the various rallies and it shows a McCain rally in Colorado today and as many as three rallies by him and Plain in Iowa over the next couple of days. That’s pretty weird IMO.

[MovieMogul]

Iowa?!?!? They’re off their nut.

[Marley23]

@ArchiveGuy

Iowa?!?!? They’re off their nut.

They’re not even paying for ads in Iowa anymore, I thought. Maybe they’re trying to give somebody a lift in a Congressional race.

[Lantern]

McCain will also be campaigning in New Mexico tomorrow. While that isn’t quite as hopeless as Iowa the last two polls there according to TPM show him 13 and 7 points down. That was around 10 days ago; have things tightened since then?

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Lantern

McCain will also be campaigning in New Mexico tomorrow. While that isn’t quite as hopeless as Iowa the last two polls there according to TPM show him 13 and 7 points down. That was around 10 days ago; have things tightened since then?

Electoral vote.com shows McCain down by 10 points. It’s a horserace!

[Frank]

@Marley23

Maybe they’re trying to give somebody a lift in a Congressional race.

And Republican congressional candidates run screaming for the hills.

“Thanks for the offer, but I’m … umm … visiting Barack’s grandmother that day.”

[DSeid]

A Texas early voting update. FWIW.

The secretary of state’s office says more than 1.1 million Texans cast ballots in the 15 most populous counties through Thursday.

That compares with 655,265 in those counties four years ago.

Harris County — the state’s largest — had 208,010 ballots completed through mail or in-person voting, representing more than a 2-to-1 increase over 2004.

Harris county a two-fold increase in early voting you say?

… you have to consider that Houston is essentially its own swing state within Texas. Harris County, which encompasses the city and its suburbs, is home to 3.9 million people, outnumbering the populations of 23 states, and is roughly the same population as Oregon. Now consider that Harris County—in theory, at least—is already Democratic. Surveys and polls repeatedly show that more of its eligible voters identify with Democrats. It’s just that many of those people don’t vote. Moreover, the area is growing…

… They talk of a day when Houston could be for Texas what Philadelphia has been for Pennsylvania—a metro area that votes so overwhelmingly Democratic it provides a large enough advantage to deliver the state almost by itself…

… Harris County Democratic Party Chair Gerry Birnberg points out that if big margins in Houston could help a Democratic presidential candidate capture Texas, the Electoral College map would shift decisively. He says New York and California likely will vote Democratic for a generation. “If you can start a presidential cycle with California, New York and Texas already in your column, there is not an electoral map you can draw that a Republican candidate can win,” Birnberg says. “Harris County is ground zero. We don’t get there without Harris County.” …

… local Democrats have worked toward flipping Harris County in 2008. They’ve recruited more candidates than ever before, raised money specifically for the effort, and designed a comprehensive campaign that coordinates the state and county party apparatuses with candidates on advertising, voter registration, and get-out-the-vote operations.

At the same time, circumstances seem to have conspired to favor Democratic gains. Corruption scandals engulfed a county commissioner, the county judge, the sheriff, and the district attorney (who eventually had to resign)—Republicans all.

And in March, the Democratic presidential primary ignited unprecedented voter interest and turnout, which seem likely to carry over into the general election.

It all seemed like the proverbial perfect storm to sink Houston Republicans in 2008—that is, until a very real storm arrived September 12. Hurricane Ike devastated the area, knocking out electricity for nearly three weeks in some neighborhoods. The storm and its aftermath precluded weeks of campaigning and voter registration, a period when no one, including campaign staff, was thinking about politics—the sort of interruption that typically benefits an incumbent.

If Democrats don’t sweep Harris County this year, it might take a while. In 2010, statewide campaigns for governor, lieutenant governor and perhaps U.S. Senate may suck up much of the Democratic campaign money in the state, and Barack Obama won’t be at the top of the ballot to bolster turnout. Ike or no Ike, Harris County’s Democrats think this is their year…

Ike or no Ike, a two-fold early voting turn-out is a good sign.

[Leaper]

Update on Palin’s Pennsylvania comment: it’s not just her. I noticed that according to an article linked in the Pit by Dio, a campaign official says they have “a real chance” there. What do they think/know that’s not being reflected in the polls, I wonder? And if that’s so, could it really be the key that wins the White House for McCain?

[Shayna]

No. They’re trying to hoodwink you. Don’t let them.

[Biggirl]

@Leaper

Update on Palin’s Pennsylvania comment: it’s not just her. I noticed that according to an article linked in the Pit by Dio, a campaign official says they have “a real chance” there. What do they think/know that’s not being reflected in the polls, I wonder? And if that’s so, could it really be the key that wins the White House for McCain?

Well, if more people vote for McCain in Pennsylvania, then he’ll win it. This turns his chance of becoming president from impossible to improbable. The hope I have is that everyone will vote for the best guy. That’s all anyone can hope for.

[tnetennba]

I found the last paragraph in that article interesting… about not “taking people down with him.” It explains how McCain is planning his schedule now (although the crappy dishonest super-negative campaigning is a black eye for the entire party) (and not an Ashley Todd black eye!)

[tnetennba]

Pennsylvania isn’t McCain’s secret for winning the White House. It’s just that he absolutely has to win Pennsylvania or he’s toast. It’s like a team trailing by 10 going for it on 4th and 27 from their own 11 yard line when there is 0:37 left in the game. There’s really nothing left to lose for McCain at this point, and that’s what makes the next 11 days so scary.

[scabpicker]

@Greg_Charles

Texas going blue would definitely make me smile, but tell me you got odds man!

That would be the poorly thought out part…I saw a polling average and a margin of error that were within 1 point of each other, and started looking for someone (non-professional) to take that bet. No one would take the bet, much less give me odds. When I did get someone to take it, I was so surprised I could get someone to take the other side of the bet, I decided to not even ask for odds.
Yeah, the wife thinks I’m dumb, too. Join the crowd.

[Siam_Sam]

Well, I did my part. My Obama vote went winging to Texas almost four weeks ago.

[Slacker]

@Siam_Sam

Well, I did my part. My Obama vote went winging to Texas almost four weeks ago.

Congrats! Mine will be registered tomorrow morning.

[Marley23]

This is nobody’s fault, but it’s one of those things that shows you how snakebit the McCain campaign is these days:

On the ESPN ticker a few minutes ago, I saw that Sarah Palin dropped the puck at the St. Louis Blues-L.A. Kings game. She walked onto the ice on a red carpet, and Blues goalie Manny Legace stepped on the carpet and fell. Strained hip flexor, gave up two goals in the first period and then left the game. The Blues lost 4-0.

[Greg_Charles]

@Siam_Sam

Well, I did my part. My Obama vote went winging to Texas almost four weeks ago.

How did you send your absentee ballot by the way? I’m trying to decide if I need to pay for DHL or something like that, or if just registered mail is the way to go.

[Desert_Nomad]

I used DHL from Prague ($60 to Nevada). Nevada will be close and I am not going to trust the Czech Post for something like that.

[rocking_chair]

@Marley23

This is nobody’s fault, but it’s one of those things that shows you how snakebit the McCain campaign is these days:

On the ESPN ticker a few minutes ago, I saw that Sarah Palin dropped the puck at the St. Louis Blues-L.A. Kings game. She walked onto the ice on a red carpet, and Blues goalie Manny Legace stepped on the carpet and fell. Strained hip flexor, gave up two goals in the first period and then left the game. The Blues lost 4-0.

just ask the flyers. to break the jinks they sacrificed a player and finally won, after the palin losing streak.

[Siam_Sam]

@Greg_Charles

How did you send your absentee ballot by the way? I’m trying to decide if I need to pay for DHL or something like that, or if just registered mail is the way to go.

Just regular airmail. I’ve never had trouble with mail getting to or from the US. If my absentee ballots don’t make it, they’ll be the only pieces that ever don’t, so I figure what are the odds. And they keep sending me ballots based on my having sent the previous ones in, plus I’ve been in e-mail contact with the registrar, so I know they’ve been getting there. I don’t know what the Vietnamese postal service is like, but the Thai service is excellent.