But…but…but…that would make Bill O’Reilly a liar! :eek: :dubious:
True, but Hearst Corp. now owns the Chronicle, not the Examiner. For the record.
Roddy
That electoral map is hilariously pathetic.
On Bill O’Reilly’s map, Indiana is rock-solid red, North Carolina is indisputable, and listed as toss-ups are Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and … OREGON?
Would that it were, Bill, would that it were.
I’m genuinely flabbergasted. McCain’s a local boy and Arizona is pretty much a red state anyway. That his campaign seems to to think that he needs to really push to win here stuns me.
<Hicks> “You’ve blown the transaxle! You’re just grinding metal!” </Hicks>
His campaign is right. In almost every recent AZ poll, McCain is leading Obama within the margin of error. Looks like the Goldwater endorsement (of Obama, by the late Senator’s family) is really hurting him.
Alternately,
Elwood: I t’ink we threw a rod.
Jake: Is that bad?
Elwood. Ayup.
Well, Ya! After all, the last poll only gave Obama a 13 point lead, and in the last 4 electoral cycles, the Dems only won all 4 times, so it is clearly a tossup state. Bill KNOWS, man.
What is so stunning about it? Obama is within the margin of error in Arizona, granted that is stunning, but the fact that the campaign now realizes that they must defend Arizona is not stunning. On the other hand, given how the campaign has been run, maybe it is stunning that they actually noticed…
Enough reality may have sunk in for them to realize that the choice is no longer between victory and defeat – it’s between defeat and outright humiliation.
Exactly. If they were still playing for the win, they’d let Montana and Arizona sink or swim on their own, be hoping that the national numbers tighten enough to bring NC and Missouri into the GOP column and keep Indiana there, and be playing hard for Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada. (They can’t even be fooling themselves anymore with the Pennsylvania play. And I have no more idea than anybody else why they keep on going back to Iowa, which hasn’t been in play anytime since the primaries ended.)
Why’d he go back to New Hampshire last week or the week before? Even if he did flip the state, it’d only be 4 electorial votes. Not enough to bother with when you’re down so far.
It looks to me like they gave Obama every state where he’s leading by 10 or so, and gave McCain every state where he has any sliver of a lead at all. The fact that it’s still essentially tied when you do all that says a lot.
Because while New Hampshire doesn’t get you much, it’s also cheap. A low population in the state means that you have to reach fewer voters to flip it-- 538’s model currently says that resources spent in New Hampshire go over eight times as far as the nationwide average.
So, instead of nothing, you have slightly less than nothing.
Yes, I guess it would have been more accurate to say that I’m stunned (though not NOT displeased) that AZ isn’t a slam dunk for McCain.
Pardon if this was mentioned above and I missed it, but this seems a good time to point out that no president has ever been elected without carrying his home state. As I recall, Gore lost Tennessee in 2000, and if he had managed to win it, that would have given him the electoral votes needed.
Apparently, when elected President, Nixon was a New York resident, and lost New York. Also, Wilson lost New Jersey in 1916 and Polk lost Tennessee in 1844. Yeah, it’s not much of a precedent, and it’s certainly not one that’s being broken in this election. If McCain loses Arizona, it’s only happening in an Obama landslide.
Cite: List of major-party United States presidential candidates who lost their home state - Wikipedia
Damn! Another bit of political lore exploded. How about the one that says no president has been elected without carrying Ohio? (Except for the pre-Ohio-statehood presidents, of course.) Does that one hold true?
I dunno if it holds true, but 538 currently has Obama with 344 EVs, if he loses Ohio, then it drops to 324 EVs, still enough to win.
1960.
Might be more but I stopped once I found one.