Almost all the points in that article are also mentioned in the cites I pointed out, and 2 out of 3 factors mentioned in yours actually point to the Obama support as possibly being way under counted.
Also, according to that article and others, the Bradley effect - if it is significant at all - applies mostly to so-called undecided voters. Some of the latest polls show Obama with more than 50% of the vote, which would mean 100% of “undecideds” could be closet racists who would never vote for a black candidate and he’d still win the popular vote.
And as much as I would love to say, as Carville said on Larry King tonight, that the election is essentially over and Obama has won…I have had my little heart stomped on too many times with early polls. Nobody can throw up a free lunch better than the Democrats and I am getting too old for this shit. I have a friend in California who is about ready to have a nervous breakdown (she is hooked on polls like a crack whore). I get hysterical emails from her if Obama’s numbers go down .001% in a suburb of Omaha…she makes me seem calm in comparison. In the words of Agent Mulder, “I want to believe…”, but have learned the hard way not to count those chickens just yet…
He meant to say “my fellow citizens”, which is what he said in other stump speeches that used the same sentence — “this is the agenda I have set before my fellow citizens”. Candidates often give the same speech over and over at different stops.
I agree with him. I’ve hypothesized a phenomenon that I call “ballot shock”. The idea is that, whatever the campains may say or do, once people are in the booth, there will be a big bold Republican next to McCain’s name. If Obama has succeeded in tying him to Bush, then that one word may off-put a lot of voters at the last minute.
If someone had good reason to lie to pollsters about voting for Obama it would have been fellow democrats in the primaries, he outperformed polls by a 2-3% average. Why would republicans or independents lie for fear of being thought of as racists? “i like the other guy” is a perfectly valid non racist position to have.
My memories of the past two Presidential elections are people shouting, refusing to allow votes to be counted, people turned away from polling places incorrectly, people put off by the long, long lines at (and how odd that this should happen only in poorer sections of certain towns and cities–can’t imagine why) polling places and giving up and going home or polling places closing despite people in line.
McCain doesn’t have to improve his message or his methods. All he has to do is sit tight and let the RNC stir shit and interfere with the voting process. It’s worked twice before-why not now?
As others have said, I am an Obama supporter and I want him to win. I will believe that he has when he is inaugurated.
I listened to a woman on NPRfrom Common Cause, is a group who “holds the powers that be responsible”…basically, they are a watchdog group looking into voter fraud.
On average, the “stirring of shit” won’t effect turnout come elction day to any measurable degree.
IMO, it’s a fairly safe bet – the attacks really only work to rile up the hardcore base (and it has the secondary effect of pissing off, and thus energizing, Obama’s hardcore base); everybody else’s attention is on the economy. For that matter, if McCain doesn’t have the balls to bring the mud to the last debate, some of his hardcore base will see it as wussing out and become less likely to get their butts to the polls.
This time I think long lines might work out in favor of Obama. His voters are clearly more energized than McCain’s, and I think would be more willing to stick it out to cast their vote.
Also, I think there are far fewer hot button ballot issues this year. As far as I know, same sex marriage bans are only on the ballot in California and Arizona.
new tack just announced: [url=http://www.youtube.com/v/ONfJ7YSXE5w&hl=en&fs=1]renewed focus on Ayers and the so-called terrorist cronies.
Here is the ad.
McCain has truly lost his mind.
True, but remember that in 2006 we did far better than expected. Plus Obama is a far better campaigner than either Gore or Kerry.
That ad is hilarious.
This has probably been done, but a perusal of Electoral vote.com today tells me that in order to win, McCain will need to do ALL OF the following:
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Keep support in all 5 states currently listed as “weak Republican” (MT, TX, MS, GA, WV) Likelihood: Good.
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Keep support in 1 state that is currently listed as "barely Republican (IN) Likelihood: Good
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Grab the one state that is currently listed as tied (NC) Likelihood: Could be - this state has gone repub the last 4 elections.
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Switch ALL the 5 states that are currently “barely democrat” (NV, CO, MO, OH, FL)
Likelihood: Probably not all of them. NV, MO and OH went for Clinton twice, and CO and FL went for Clinton once. These are not Republican locks by any stretch. -
Switch one of the 4 states with more than 5 EV’s that are listed as “weak dem” (MN, WI, MI, VA) OR, switch both of NM and ME Likeihood: Not likely at all. NM is the only one of the 6 that went republican over the past 4 elections, and that was only by 1%. I don’t think they’ll suddenly love McCain now.
Yesterday McCain recieved an endorsement from Leonore Annenberg. The very same Annenberg who has funded the left-wing comie inspired agenda of unrepentant terrorist William Ayers through her foundation!
Why is McCain palling around with this woman?
Anybody catcj Ayers Shirt in that Ad? FREE MINDS
So thats what they are afraid of… :smack:
The only reason I’d believe an ARG poll is if it agreed with a bunch of more reputable polls.
But at this point, I think Obama could pick up WV if he made just a few campaign stops there over the next few weeks.