From where we have discussed this before:
Recapping - IF the Arab Institute and the YouGov poll (that had a majority of respondents who voted in 2020 saying they voted for Trump when actual voting was two to one Biden) are accurate, then the impact could be as much as 45K votes.
It is NOT impossible for all of: those polls are correct ; MI will be THE tipping point state; AND for it to be decided by 45K or less.
And voters in MI of Arab descent who would have voted for the D candidate if not for events in Gaza, are aware of that possibility, aware that theirs is THE vote that might have kept Trump out of the White House.
That’s a scary thought to think.
Now some think that anything different might be better. But most are very aware that Trump would be much worse. The fact that it is possible to not just be a sign of protest but THE tipping point vote that decides the presidency and what happens in the ME, the numbers who will die as a consequence of Trump as president? That may be … sobering.
Personally though I do not see those two polls or anecdata as good evidence that such will happen, and I am expected that there will be SOME systemic error of significance one way or the other. MI will IMHO be won or lost by more than 45K and so will the mass of swing states as a group. If the result is that Harris loses MI then I would shocked if she wouldn’t have lost with a win in MI. Likewise in a win. This group of states all within 1% will likely all go one way or the other together.
ETA. I am very sure that Harris has private polling much more reliable than these publicly available ones.