How many Palestinians will that unkill?
As a voting bloc Palestinians are not a factor at all. The cites I can find say there are a little over 6,000 in Michigan. For purposes of this discussion of campaign realities it’s important to get those distinctions right. The Arab and overall Muslim population of Michigan is significant enough to affect the election. You more than most should know those things are not interchangeable. The issue isn’t getting people who are Palestinian to vote for Harris, it’s to convince the much larger group that has no direct connection to Gaza to vote for her. Many feel a kinship with Palestinians but they are not getting reports of family and friends being killed. I would not expect anyone directly involved to see beyond the one issue, even to consider what a Trump presidency would do to the vast majority of Muslims in this country.
No, but as you note, Arab Americans are an important voting bloc in Michigan and there seems to be sympathy for Palestine. I’m not arguing if they will or won’t cost Harris Michigan. I’m trying to get the Dope to understand that waiting for America to care about the Palestinians is not working and some supporters of Palestinians have given up hope. A lot of the perceived difference that people here are expressing between Trump and Harris are not nearly as stark to a lot of Arabs. It has been humiliation after humiliation and its possible that some voters are just going to check out.
Is there anything that Harris could have done as VP that would have pleased these MI Palestinian Americans without really pissing off an even bigger bloc of voters? No. (Even ignoring the fact that as VP, her power was extremely limited to do anything in this area)
Is there anything Harris could have done as a candidate to please these MI Palestinia Americans without pissing off an even bigger bloc of voters? Also no.
So the whole point is there is nothing at any time she could have done differently.
This is just edition #47 of OMG! Here is another way Harris is doomed!!!
ISTM there has been no shortage of people protesting in the US in support of Palestinians.
Maybe it is not enough but neither is it something that has gone unnoticed in the US.
Yes.
And the same is true for many other groups of voters who care intensely about one issue that they feel neither major party is addressing adequately.
These individuals will decide, each for themselves, if there are any other issues that matter to them with major differences between the candidates and the parties, and if one or the other presents more movement in the direction they prefer than the other.
For some Arab voters it is religious conservatism that also matters to them and they will vote Trump. For some it is protecting all minorities from hate, including but not limited to them, and they will vote Harris. Same for those who just feel strongly about preserving the institution of democracy.
And for some no other issue matters. Not reproductive freedoms, not criminality. Not Russia given a green light to have fun across Europe …
So those Arab voters may join those who only care about other things that neither party supports enough, like preventing fluoride in the water, or whatever, and go third party. Or just check out. You can’t win every voter. She’ll have to win without the support of some is all.
Apparently the Muslims voting for Trump have forgotten his virulent anti-Muslim rhetoric during the 2016 campaign & his term. They also must have forgotten his attempt to block all Muslim immigrants.
You keep missing the point that there are very few planning to vote for Trump. If you read the articles linked in the OP you would find most plan to abstain or vote 3rd party.
The strategy is much like in the MI primaries where 100K voted uncommitted rather than for Biden.
It is a reference to one of Q-Anon’s more bizarre conspiracy theories. I hope they are being ironic.
Ok Arab Americans make up about 4 percent of the Michigan’s population. Across the US 62% lean Democrat, 17% lean Republican. So they could make a difference in a tight race.
Except, Michigan polls suggest the Dems lead by 1.2 percentage points. Arab American preferences are baked into that. I sort of doubt whether many of them are undecided now. Nate Silver’s model gives Harris a 61.5% chance of winning Michigan. I wouldn’t count the state out.
In terms of anecdotes, my Michigan GOTV texting shows a few mentions of Palestine, but not a lot.
And his promise to make the attempt again.
Unfortunately, in the winner-take-all 2 party Electoral College, any action other than voting for Harris is equivalent to voting for Trump.
Nevertheless, I understand the emotional reward of a Protest Vote.
Another bit of encouraging news I found on the NYtimes election day feed.
Hours before polls opened in Michigan, Donald Trump told supporters that he had a big movement of Muslims behind him in the state. But in Hamtramck, we met a local Yemeni American political organizer who once supported Trump and even helped establish a campaign office for him in the city, until the former president described his community as “terrorists.”
There is a video of him which I can’t link to where he says he’s now voting for Harris.
Conversely, any action other than voting for Trump is equivalent to voting for Harris.
Exactly. I don’t understand why the Ds are always portrayed as entitled to 3rd party votes, for lack of a better way to put it. There is this attitude that a third-party vote is almost a vote robbed from Hillary or Kamala, as if it should have rightfully been theirs.
I see it like this:
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A basically D-leaning voter who choses to vote for e.g. Stein threw away their was-gonna-be-Harris vote. That decision was purely detrimental to the Ds since this person was never going to vote R.
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A basically R-leaning voter who choses to vote for e.g. the newly authoritarian now-misnamed Libertarians threw away their was-gonna-be-trump vote. That decision was purely detrimental to the Rs since this person was never going to vote D.
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The two situations above are logically mirror images. As rightly pointed out by @asterion.
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But they are not numerically mirror images. There are far more left-leaning 3rd party candidates and far more left-leaning voters inclined to register protest votes or send messages or whatever. The Rs are far better at preventing right-leaning splinter groups from gaining mindshare. The last significant right-leaning 3rd party candidate to do more than bupkiss was George Wallace in 1968.
As a consequence, the majority of the protest votes (and principled abstentions) in teh modern era come out of the D’s hide. In that sense the situation is anything but symmetrical.
That is the point of the oft-repeated phrase around here that “Any vote not for Harris amounts to a vote for trump.”
This is so disrespectful to Ross Perot.
Except for when it’s not symmetrical. For example, in 2016 if you push every Stein voter to Clinton and every Johnson voter to Trump, Trump still wins Pennsylvania.
If a voter isn’t out to hurt as many people as possible including themselves, then that’s basically what it is. They are at best being self defeating and supporting their enemy.
Not that it would have been enough to cost Harris the state but in Dearborn, MI the vote for Stein looks to be 11,273 out of 65,041 total. That works out to be ~17% of the vote in that one city.
No guarantee these were mostly Arab/Muslim voters or not but given the demographics of the city it seems likely most were.
It also was enough to give Trump the win in Dearborn.
The numbers also indicate it cost Slotkin thousands of votes in the Senate race.