Midterm Election Races

Great Debates
1

I little survey here to spark the discussion.

ARKANSAS
MARK PRYOR (D) VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON
MARGIN:

COLORADO
TOM STRICKLAND (D) VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ®
MARGIN:

GEORGIA
SEN. MAX CLELAND (D) VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLIS ®
MARGIN:

LOUISIANA
SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D) VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ®
(RUNOFF?)
MARGIN:

MINNESOTA
WALTER MONDALE (D) VS. NORM COLEMAN ®
MARGIN:

MISSOURI
SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. REP. JIM TALENT ®
MARGIN:

NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D) VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ®
MARGIN:

NEW JERSEY
FRANK “THE CHEATER” LAUGHTENBURG (D) VS. DOUG “I WAS ROBBED!” FORRESTER ®
MARGIN:

NORTH CAROLINA
ERSKINE BOWLES (D) VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ®
MARGIN:

NORTH DAKOTA
SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D) VS. JOHN THUNE®
MARGIN:

TEXAS
RON KIRK (D) VS. JOHN CORNYN ®
MARGIN:
OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS

WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)?
A. BEFORE 7PM
B. 7PM-8PM
C. 8PM-9PM
D. 9PM-MIDNIGHT
E. HE WILL NOT ACT LIKE A MORON

WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD?
YES
NO

WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES?
YES
NO

OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES?
GOP GAINS SEATS
DNC GAINS SEATS
NO CHANGE

2

ARKANSAS
MARK PRYOR (D) VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON
MARGIN: Pryor by 6

COLORADO
TOM STRICKLAND (D) VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ®
MARGIN: Strickland by 4

GEORGIA
SEN. MAX CLELAND (D) VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLIS ®
MARGIN: Chamblis by 1

LOUISIANA
SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D) VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ®
(RUNOFF?)
MARGIN: Landrieu gets 46 percent and wins the DEC runoff

MINNESOTA
WALTER MONDALE (D) VS. NORM COLEMAN ®
MARGIN: Mondale by 4

MISSOURI
SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. REP. JIM TALENT ®
MARGIN: Talent by 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D) VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ®
MARGIN: Shaheen by 2

NEW JERSEY
FRANK “THE CHEATER” LAUGHTENBURG (D) VS. DOUG “I WAS ROBBED!” FORRESTER ®
MARGIN: Laughtenburg by 11

NORTH CAROLINA
ERSKINE BOWLES (D) VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ®
MARGIN: Dole by 5

NORTH DAKOTA
SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D) VS. JOHN THUNE®
MARGIN: Thune by 2

TEXAS
RON KIRK (D) VS. JOHN CORNYN ®
MARGIN: Cornyn by 7

Basically, seats will change hands, but the balance remains the same.

OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS

WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)?
B. 7PM-8PM

WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD?
YES
WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES?
YES- South Dakota and possibly MINN
OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES?
GOP GAINS SEATS (+2)

3

I don’t think I can pick individual races, but based on these polling numbers and breakdown from Gallup, along with what appears to a Late Shift Toward Republicans in Congressional Vote, I would say 50/50 that the Republicans take the Senate.

4

My picks are in bold face. The margin, of course, applies to the winning candidates and how much they won by.

ARKANSAS
MARK PRYOR (D) VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON
MARGIN: 4

COLORADO
TOM STRICKLAND (D) VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ®
MARGIN: 3

GEORGIA
SEN. MAX CLELAND (D) VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLISS ®
MARGIN: 2

LOUISIANA
SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D) VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ®
(RUNOFF?) Yes.
MARGIN: 45% for Landrieu; she will win the runoff.

MINNESOTA
WALTER MONDALE (D) VS. NORM COLEMAN ®
MARGIN: 4

MISSOURI
SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. **REP. JIM TALENT ® **
MARGIN: 1

NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D) VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ®
MARGIN: 1

NEW JERSEY
FRANK LAUTENBURG (D) VS. DOUG FORRESTER ®
MARGIN: 7

NORTH CAROLINA
ERSKINE BOWLES (D) VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ®
MARGIN: 1

SOUTH DAKOTA (not NORTH DAKOTA)
SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D) VS. JOHN THUNE®
MARGIN: >1

TEXAS
RON KIRK (D) VS. **JOHN CORNYN ® **
MARGIN: 2
OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS

WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)?
**A. BEFORE 7PM **
B. 7PM-8PM
C. 8PM-9PM
D. 9PM-MIDNIGHT
E. HE WILL NOT ACT LIKE A MORON

WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD?
YES
**NO **

WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES?
HELL, YES—Watch for fun in Texas and Arkansas.
YES
NO

OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES?
GOP GAINS SEATS
**DEMOCRATS GAIN SEATS—+6 **
NO CHANGE

5

BTW, Drudge has early exit polls posted. These were not completely accurate last time around, but interesting nonetheless.

6

Um… Lautenberg wins New Jersey by 7, despite local vandals’ attacks on his campaign posters last night. I just messed up my bolding. I really should check these things before I post.

7

Hmm things are looking bad for the Dems. It looks like the GOP will keep the House and take the Senate. They have lost New Hampshire and are behind in Georgia and Colorada. If they lose Minnesota it will be a disaster. Then even the Louisiana run-off won’t matter.

I guess their only hope is that they manage to get 48 seats (including Lousiana eventually) and then Chafee pulls a switcheroo to hand back the Senate to them.

8

The Senate is basically down to two races: South Dakota and Minnesota. In the first the Democrat holds a wafer-thin lead while in the second Mondale is trailing by 7 points but with lots of votes still uncounted.

The Dems have to pull both these races and also win the Louisiana run-off to keep the Senate. If they win one and win the run-off they will depend on a Chafee switcheroo. If they lose both they are done for.

9

My figures were out-of-date. Thune, the Republican, is leading by 3000 votes in South Dakota. Things are looking VERY bad for the Democrats. I wonder if heads will roll in their leadership

Isn’t anyone else interested in the election?.

10

Nope, Johnson squeaked through, 167,481 to 166,954.
Recount, anyone?

If Chafee switches, so will Miller, for no net effect. Neither will happen.

11

Not that it matters now but I had made a mistake; the Dems needed all three last seats andChafee to get back the Senate. Mondale’s loss means that the GOP majority is Chafee-proof.

“If Chafee switches, so will Miller, for no net effect”
Well Miller didn’t switch after Jefforts so I am not sure why he would have switched after Chafee. All moot now of course.