Pence will be one of the top 3-4 contenders. He has Trumpist cred, he has evangelical cred and he is broadly acceptable to the GOP establishment. No other contender has those mix of attributes.
I don’t remember Walter Mondale having a lot of charisma, and he got the nomination in 84. Let’s hope Pence runs and gets nominated with the same results.
Al Gore, Michael Dukakis, and Mitt Romney were three more guys who were never nicknamed “Mr. Excitement” but were all nominees. Sometimes the charismatic candidate wins, and sometimes the safe candidate wins; it depends who they’re up against. George H.W. Bush was boring and he actually won.
I think it’s likely that Pence will run. He’s part of the Trump “movement.” That movement seems to have taken over the Republican electorate, if not the Republican Party. It depends on a number of choices that Trump may or may not make, post-presidency. He might just slink off to the shadows, emerging periodically to say or do something stupid, OR he might double down on being a public figure (he does adore the spotlight) and essentially become the new Alex Jones, continuing to rant and rave every single day on whatever platforms he’s able to buy. In other words, it’ll be the 2016 campaign for the next four years, and - crucially - it’ll be someone else in charge of the country, meaning he will have a whipping boy to blame for everything that he and his supporters perceive to be wrong. All of the people who voted for him will continue to be part of this movement and hang on his every word. It truly will be like there are two presidents, one for the liberals/globalists/cucks/whatever and one for “the real America.”
So let’s say this situation does come to pass. Is Pence going to be part of it? Is he going to be right there beside Trump throughout all of it, affirming everything about it and participating in rallies and speeches and interviews representing it?
If so, the situation MIGHT arise that Trump deigns to “pass the torch” to Pence in the 2024 election, giving him his full endorsement and stumping his ass off for him on the campaign trail, while maintaining the “Trump brand.” Depending on how things play out, it might work (and yes, Pence might win the general election.)
If Trump decides it’s gotta be HIM running again in 2024 - he simply can’t abide being a one-term President, he simply MUST reclaim the second term that was stolen from him - well then, Pence might simply be his VP choice again. Or, over the next four years, Pence may slither his trail of slime in a different direction, away from Trump and towards some other shit pile for him to make his home. But in that scenario, it seems unlikely to me that he could successfully run for President in isolation of the “Trump movement.”
Ugh.
Mike Pence, for all his many shortcomings, and as much as I know I would disagree with him politically if he were President, is (a) a mature adult (b) with political experience (c ) who is not personally corrupt and who (d) doesn’t tweet.
I have a feeling that come Jan 21 Trump won’t be tweeting either.
He is going to be tweeting one way or another. If they somehow ban him from the platform, he’ll just have some surrogate speak for him. Twitter is cancer. I’ve hated it from the moment it became popular, I have never used it, I will never use it, and I think it should be obliterated from the earth.
Sadly you’re probably right about Trump vs. Twitter.
Agree completely with your assessment of the service. Let’s invent something intended to facilitate people baying at the moon instead of thinking and conversing in complete sentences. Now let’s give it worldwide reach and make it a popularity contest. What could go possibly wrong?
TwitFace maybe the death of civilization. See also my recent post here:
The weirdest thing about Pence’s total lack of media charisma is that he had a media career for over ten years. In between law school plus private practice (and a couple of failed electoral runs) and his eventual successful ascension to elected office, he spent more than a decade in radio and on television. He called himself “decaffeinated Limbaugh” or something like that, because he saw himself as a conservative-agenda warrior without the loudmouth braggadocio. It’s strange that somebody who could have that much time as a media figure wouldn’t be able to translate the experience into personal presence as a politico. Maybe there’s a fundamental difference between a pundit talking about and promoting ideas at an abstracted remove, versus a politician who is ultimately promoting himself. It feels like his statewide electoral success came as a ride on the coattails of his prior media exposure, but as soon as that faded Pence didn’t have the juice to refuel the engine.
Maybe there’s a fundamental difference between a pundit talking about and promoting ideas at an abstracted remove, versus a politician who is ultimately promoting himself.
Indeed- and a fundamental difference between a pundit with all the ideas and policy positions, vs. a politician who understands how to get the votes (including from people who would normally disagree with you) to put ideas into practice.
He did one thing- get the GOP nomination for governor in Indiana. That was his accomplishment, once he had that then winning the general was in the bag. Not sure what competition he faced that year but he did do that much. But truly you will never see anyone who is less inspiring as a speaker. He has that perpetual look on his face that he’s suppressing the urge to take a dump. Never smiles, never laughs, though neither does his master.
I think Trump has a little smile when he cons a widow out of her life’s savings…
Pence is the least charismatic person to ever live, he’d have no chance.
Dan Quayle
I just can’t agree with all of these people saying that Pence’s “lack of charisma” means he doesn’t have a chance. Honestly, should Trump not run in 2024 due to death, incarceration or just getting bored, I’d say that Pence is the front-runner for the Republican nomination.
As has been pointed out, there are no shortage of examples of major party nominees who came out on top in their presidential primary despite lacking charisma. And if you look at the other likely competitors for the Republican nomination, we’re not talking about a bunch of Robert Redfords here.
If Trump runs, he clears the field. But if not, I’d have Pence as the slight favorite for the nomination. Maybe he doesn’t have “charisma”, but what he does have is credibility and deep connections with two groups that will be determinative in the primary – evangelicals and movement conservatives. While maybe not “charismatic,” he can speak their language and present himself to them in a way that will resonate with their voters.
He wouldn’t be asking anyone to fall in love with him. But Republicans in 2024 might not be looking to fall in love again so soon after just getting out of a tumultuous relationship.
Seems to me this entire discussion revolves around a couple of common topics: what the Republican Party stands for in the 21st century and what fundamentally is the basis of Trump’s support. The disagreements here seem to fall under disagreements on what these two answers are.
Pence - Haley will be the GOP ticket in 2024.
Pence has name recognition, solid GOP credentials after sticking by Trump all four years, only baled at the very end (and he’ll get a pass on that). The party knows it needs to appeal to a more diverse base. We could have a female Asian-American Vice President twice in a row.
To me that seems like the best platform for the GOP to run on in 2024. I’m no Pence fan but I’d prefer him to just about anyone else the GOP could trot out.
South Dakota’s Kristi Noem is another interesting possibility but probably not well-known enough yet.
I read an interesting article yesterday that posited that Pence is basically done in national politics at this point, because he’s essentially radioactive from either side of the GOP. Too Trump-affiliated for the non-Trump side of the party, and after 1/6, not loyal enough to Trump for the foaming at the mouth pro-Trump wing.
I tend to think they’re right- he has moved himself into a sort of no-man’s-land where he can’t really recover.
The putative leaders of the “non-Trump side” have proven themselves downright eager to bow their heads and bend their knees for the sake of keeping the mouthfoamer voters marking under the “R”. So it’s going to be his rejection by the mouthfoamers that will make him not worth it to the “OMG how can I live w/o being in power” faction.