Here’s a thread to discuss the 5 primaries being held on April 26.
Pennsylvania: 71 R delegates (54 are unbound) 181 D delegates
Maryland: 38 R delegates 105 D delegates
Delaware: 16 R delegates 27 D delegates
Rhode Island: 19 R delegates 24 D delegates
Connecticut: 28 R delegates 65 D delegates
Looks like another good night for Trump and Clinton. A Brown University poll shows Clinton beating Sanders in Rhode Island 43-34 with 16% undecided. Rhode Island is semi open, those not affiliated with a party can pick either ballot, which works in Sanders’ favor.
The big delegate prize is Pennsylvania and the latest NBC/Marist poll shows Clinton 55% and Sanders 40%.
I’ll be quite interested in the Sanders concession speech. Does he continue scorched earth with some favorable states to him in May? Will all the losses finally slow his fundraising? He’s been burning through money like mad.
Cruz and Kasich have surrendered all 5 states to Trump. Cruz is wooing Indiana while Kasich is onto Oregon and New Mexico as part of their strategy.
PPP shows this as +4 Sanders (49-45) which seems more likely to me than +9 Clinton but it won’t matter much either way since Clinton will win Maryland and almost certainly win PA.
Those PredicIt numbers are mostly useless on the Dem side unless you are actually betting on who wins. Also, I think all but the most loco Bernie supporters must realize the race is over now.
They are next to useless for determining what is going on in the Democratic race. So Hillary has a 99% chance of winning Maryland, what does that tell us about how many delegates she will win? At least half, I guess. So now we know she’ll get between 50 and 100% of Maryland’s delegates.
The Democratic side doesn’t mean much anymore. Bernie isn’t going to make it, turnout will be lower, and where the primaries are open enough independents will move more to the GOP race. There could be a big Bernie turnout down the road in CA, but that depends a lot on how far Hillary gets by then.
On the dark side, it’s all a question of whether Trump can hit 1237, or over 1100, the latter seemingly inevitable. So the independent turnout in open primaries is the big factor there, and difficult to read because there may be just as many anti-Trump as pro-Trump votes. I think there’s a fair chance Trump goes over 1000 tomorrow putting him close to the same position of presumptive nominee that Hillary has, and inevitably taking him over 1100, considered by many the point where the party can’t afford to take it away from him.
I can’t find where I read it but apparently Cruz kind of uncharacteristically dropped the ball in PA. He hasn’t gotten a full slate of delegates ready and a lot of the less partisan ones are planning to vote however the statewide or their congressional district voted, which likely means Trump as he is polling strong.
So do I. Your calculations have Clinton with an overall 17 point delegate spread (ironically enough, what Sanders would be needing to do if he was to be catching up). Double digit maybe but that seems high.
The race is over but the nature of the process from here and its potential impact on outcomes at the top of the ticket to the bottom are still to be determined.
Whoa, really? I see all sorts of potential for misinformation there. Candidate A can send volunteers to a precinct which favors B, and tell the voters as they’re going into the polling place that A’s delegates are B’s. Of course, they may or may not have to contend with B’s volunteers there also telling folks, but then it’s a question of who the voters believe.
Trump will sweep, and Hillary will near sweep everything except Rhode Island; a state almost as liberal as Vermont, no, even moreso; it voted for Carter twice and voted Dukakis, as well as the most recent 6 elections. Also, its not a fully closed primary.