Won’t happen. Even if mathematically eliminated there are enough diehard supporters to fund him all the way to the convention. There’s also the “Clinton will be indicted” true believers and those that just want to push the overton window.
I don’t expect him to drop out of the race tonight. He hasn’t been very gracious in his concession speeches to date. If, as many believe, tonight finally drives a stake into his campaign, does he show any sign of backing off from the direct attacks on Clinton. Will he indict unequivocally that he will be supporting Clinton in November and his supporters should do so as well? Or, does he continue with his slippery weasel words?
I think a lot of Bernie Bros saw a realistic path to a floor fight. I also saw the possibilities of that path, which I discussed and kicked around at length on a few of the political threads. That path did not necessitate winning last week’s race in New York, but it absolutely included winning big today, and winning big absolutely means winning PA (or perhaps coming within a whisker of victory if he can win a majority of other states). Until last week, Bernie was gaining ground in national polls and he was on a major win streak. There was also a precedent of Bernie scoring major come-from-behind upsets. So it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility to throw out the possibility of Bernie going on a long win streak to close out the primary season and throw the convention into chaos.
Unfortunately for Sanders Nation, though, the polls over the last week suggest that this scenario probably won’t happen. Clinton didn’t collapse in New York. She doesn’t appear to be collapsing in the Northeast. And if these recent polls are accurate, then tomorrow morning will be a day of sober reckoning for even the hardiest of his supporters. It’s going to be hard to spin a Sanders floor fight if he loses the most diverse states, the largest states, and most of the swing states. It’s true that Clinton is a vulnerable candidate, but Sanders would, by all accounts, be even more vulnerable.
Do tell! 
The Clinton campaign, to their credit, have been relatively gentle so far. I hope that the race is sealed today - with a strong performance from Clinton putting things “beyond question” well and truly.
It is time for Bernie to “close ranks” and show strong support for the Dem cause moving forward. It would be nigh on criminal to do anything less and open even the slightest chink for the Orange One to exploit.
Many Sanders supporters saw a path to a floor fight. None of them saw a realistic path.
Here is the list of district delegates from the Pennsylvania state election site, along with their candidate preferences, based on the “official” Trump and Cruz lists and the Allentown/Lehigh Valley Morning Call list.
I put it inside a spoiler block so those of you who don’t want to see it don’t have to scroll down a rather long list to get to the rest of the thread.
- next to a candidate indicates the delegate is on the candidate’s “official” slate but has said they would vote for the district winner
- next to a delegate indicates a write-in delegate
A candidate name in parentheses indicates someone not on that candidate’s official slate
District 1
Hackett, David - District Winner
Kaufer, Seth W - Unpledged
Vogler, Christopher M - Unpledged
District 2
Cohen, Aaron J - Unpledged
Gessa, Aldridk - Cruz
Havey, Elizabeth - District Winner
Tucker, Calvin R - Unpledged
District 3
Aliota, Louis J - (Trump)
Baker, Michael T - District Winner
Ellis, Brian L. - ?
English, Philip S - Unpledged
Keffalas, James S - Trump
Measel Jr, Gale E - District Winner
Metcalfe, Daryl D - ?
Mustello, Michele - District Winner
Ryan, Carol Lynne - Trump
Vete Jr, Daniel P - Trump
Yates, Robert J. - Cruz*
District 4
Barker, Timothy - District Winner
Brennan, Amy Sarah - ?
Burford, Joseph Scott - State Winner
Gerow, Charles R. - District Winner
Gillispie, Marilyn S - Cruz
Hower, Betsy - State Winner
Jansen, Matthew R - Trump
Matthias, G Edwin - (Cruz)
Puig, Ana L. - (Withdrew?)
Ritter Jr, Andrew Joseph - District Winner
Rothman, William Greg - District Winner
Sacco, Joseph A - Trump
Saylor, Stanley E - District Winner
Scaringi, Marc Anthony - Trump
Shorb, Alexander V - District Winner
District 5
Chura Jr., Richard J - Cruz
Haas, Joyce C - District Winner
Khare, Ash - Trump*
Klein, James Feuer - Trump
Kroeker, Barry K - Cruz
Mcclure, C Arnold - Trump
Schreffler, Scott W - District Winner
Sterrett, Sheila Fitzgerald - District Winner
Stewart, Lyle - Cruz
District 6
Buckwalter, Wayne - Trump
Costello, Ryan A - District Winner
Hager, W Douglas - District Winner
Kichline, Michelle Haris - District Winner
Lightcap, Vicki - Trump
Stohler, Larry E - State Winner
Wert, Mary Elizabeth - Cruz
Wert, Robert A - Cruz
District 7
Miller, Joan M - ?
Puppio, Michael V - District Winner
Ting, Jan C - Trump
Wike III, Ralph E - Trump
Willert, Robert J. - ?
District 8
Casper, Barry Robert - Trump
Digirolamo, Gene - Unpledged
Evangelou, Deborah A - Cruz
Loughery, Robert G - Unpledged
Quinn, Marguerite C - ?
Shute, Sean M - Trump
Worthington Jr, Samuel James - Trump
District 9
Kaneshiki, Lois M. - Cruz
Knotts, Cody Raymond - Trump
Lamantia, Joseph - Trump
Show, Clayton David - Cruz
Shuster, William F - Unpledged
Taylor, Debra D - Trump
Thomas, Robert L - Unpledged
Ward, Judith F - District Winner
District 10
Belz, Ryan Alan - (Trump)
Brewer, Charles John - Cruz*
Bristol, Krystle R - District Winner
- Greenaway, Elizabeth - Cruz
Harris, Mark J - District Winner
Hayes, Jonathan Corona - Unpledged
Holt, Mark F - Cruz
Huffman Jr., David Alexander - Unpledged
Pickett, Tina - Trump*
Saylor, Patricia L - ?
Scavello, Mario Michael - Trump
Schrader, Nancy L - District Winner
Sides, Carol D - Trump
Stoicheff, Mark E - (Trump)
Wells, John - (Trump)
District 11
Adams, Richard P - (Cruz)
Bear, Philip G. - District Winner
Drewniak, Carol H - Cruz
Haste, Jeffrey T T - ?
Helm, Susan C - District Winner
Henry, Lowman S - Cruz
Loose, Marlene Faye - (Trump)
Mcelwee, David J - Trump
Morelli, Richard - Trump
Mosel, J Daniel - Cruz
Pyne, Thomas James - (Cruz)
Shecktor, Andrew - Trump
Sherwood, Donald L - ?
Urbanski, William C - ?
Warren, Rebecca - District Winner
District 12
Borland, Lawrence M - Cruz
Cooper, Jill N - District Winner
Fromme, Christopher H - ?
Howard, Robert C - District Winner
Keeler, Bruce - Cruz
Keller, Gabriel C - (Trump)
Majernik, David J - District Winner
Mcmullen, Micahel P - District Winner
Miclot, Samuel G. - District Winner
Morrill, Monica - Trump
Sernell, Joseph Matthew - Trump
Steigerwalt, George F - Cruz
Trevorrow, Michele T - ?
Valente, Louis Roger - State Winner on first ballot; District Winner after that
Vasilko, James J - Trump
District 13
Apt, Alan - ?
Casper, Lauren Elizabeth - Trump
Cox Jr, Gilbert W - Trump
Ellis, Thomas Jay - Trump*
Levy, Pamela - Unpledged
Mcmonagle, Michael J - Cruz
Oscar, Shannon Meadors - District Winner
District 14
Devanney, Michael - Unpledged
Linton, Cameron S - Unpledged
Meloy, Mary A - Unpledged
District 15
Browning, Dean N - Cruz
Cole II, Malcolm C - (Cruz)
Heydt, William L - District Winner
Hoffman, Mark S - Cruz
Kerwin, Patrick J - Trump
Leinbach, Christian Y - Cruz
Mackenzie, Ryan E - Unpledged
Reber Sr, John K - Trump
Smith Jr, Robert E - Unpledged
Uehlinger, Scott C. - Trump*
District 16
Brubaker, Douglas W - Cruz
Chiomento III, Thomas Vincent - ?
Christopher Jr., Terry R - District Winner
Denlinger, Gordon Ray - Unpledged
Dumeyer, David M - District Winner
Lemon Esq, Marcus James - Trump
District 17
Ames, Robert E - District Winner
Blauer, George Paul - (Trump)
Boltz, Ronald L - Cruz
Bonkoski, Carolyn L - Trump
Dougherty, Mary Beth - Unpledged
Gaffney, Theresa S - (Trump)
Halcovage Jr, George F - District Winner
Kirkwood Sr, Charles Warren - Unpledged, but asking for advice on his web page
Snover, Gloria Lee - Trump*
Villano, Teresa Lynette - Trump
- Underwood, Joel - Cruz
Whitehead, Thomas - District Winner
District 18
Avolio, Scott E - District Winner
Deplato Phd, Justin - Trump
Konkus, Charles T - ?
Means Jr., James R. - Cruz
Means, Sue Ann - Cruz
Petrarca, John Thomas - Trump*
Quaye III, Albert Ernest - District Winner
Saccone, Richard - District Winner
Silvis, Mary Jo - District Winner
Strain, Virginia J - ?
Uram, Thomas J - Trump
Looking at the list That Don Guy posted, the interesting thing to note (as the hot air article I posted does) is the number of districts that Cruz does not have 3 loyal delegates in. 12 of the 18 by my count. So that’s two thirds of the districts that he is unable to take completely.
And that’s where it gets dicey. Bernie’s greatest strength is his personal integrity and his weakness is the degree to which his platform is perceived as being off the mainstream. Sending forth the unlikable and ethically vulnerable Hillary with a lot of Bernie’s agenda – which is what he wants to achieve – has the potential to be, politically, the worst of both worlds. Bernie has to understand that Hillary is winning, despite her considerable faults, in large part because she’s not Bernie and her platform isn’t Bernie’s platform. Sad but true. Bernie is going to have to give up a lot of his idealism.
The problem is, how many of his supporters will refuse to support Clinton unless she pledges to support at least some of Sanders’s platform - and in that case, which parts?
Does anybody have any idea how much of Bernie’s support comes from college (and 18-year-old high school) students (and a lot of their parents) who are in it primarily for the free tuition, or at least a chance to cut the interest rate on their existing student loans? How about from supporters of single-payer healthcare paid for by taxes on the rich (or at least, that’s what they are assuming)?
Sanders: If Clinton Wins, She’ll Have To Win Over My Supporters Herself
Clickbait-y headline notwithstanding, if this is any indication of Sanders’ approach to rapprochement, I’m not encouraged.
From the article:
Which states are winner take all, winner take most, and proportional?
On the plus side on the Clinton/Sanders front, young voters overwhelmingly prefer Clinton over Trump. Per Political Wire this morning:
There’s still the weight of turning them out to the polls but there isn’t any major “Well, our outside guy didn’t win so let’s all go for the other outside the establishment guy!” mindset as some predicted.
I haven’t seen any evidence that Bernie’s support is dominated by any single-issue obsessions like that. Nor do I think that Bernie’s support is driven by young people or anyone else wanting “free stuff”. As Van Jones said the other night, it’s not about wanting “free stuff” but about the fact that we all pay taxes and then there is a consensus about where the money goes, and what Bernie supporters want to see is less money spent on dumb wars and massive prison programs and more money spent on things that people actually need. ISTM that Bernie support is based on that broad ideology of social reform.
The idea of health care being “paid for by the rich” is especially strawman-ish. Since all available evidence shows that universal health care is dramatically less expensive than private insurance which is notoriously inefficient, all that the Bernie types are saying is why don’t we do it the smart way instead of the dumb way.
Here’s a list I made about a month ago
Pennsylvania is a “loophole” primary. As described above each district votes directly for its 3 delegates with no candidate preference mentioned on the ballot. 17 statewide delegates are awarded WTA.
Maryland is WTA for each district plus the 14 delegates for the staewide winner.
Delaware is WTA for statewide winner.
Rhode Island is proportional for each of the two districts and statewide for the remaining 13 delegates.
Connecticut awards the delegates WTA within each district with a proportional allocation for the 13 at large delegates, with a WTA being triggered at 50% statewide.
Can’t speak directly to health care, but Sanders has certainly said things like “we’re going to make public colleges tuition free, and we’re going to make Wall Street pay for it.” Lines like these go over very well with his supporters.
It would be interesting to know how much of the enthusiasm for the proposal is “making college tuition free” and how much is “making college tuition free and having someone else pay for it.” If people were told that earners above $70,000, say, or $50,000, or take your pick, would be taxed to help pay for the program, would support for the proposal drop?
I kind of suspect it would. We do like our free stuff.
Speaking only for myself, my college days are behind me, and I’d still support a tax increase on my own bracket if that was what was needed to make college free for all.
I expect a lot of people would. But that’s not the rhetoric of the campaign.
I think that’s always a challenge for the nomination fight winner. Probably most of the democrats who voted for Sanders will end up voting for Hillary, especially if it looks like Trump or Cruz might actually come close to winning. Sanders has almost guaranteed that Clinton will be pushed to the left of where she would have been otherwise without the success of his campaign. There are rumblings of Elizabeth Waren being picked as her veep candidate. I’m not sure that would be my first choice but it probably reassure a good number of the Bernie support base that Clinton is serious about doing more than just paying lip service to their campaign.
If democratic voters are seriously going to get hung up on whether Clinton decides to go from 10 to 12 to 15 per hour over a period of years, rather than just jumping straight into a $15 per hour minimum wage right now, then there’s a lot more to worry about than whether or not Clinton can win the general election. I’d be worried if the progressive movement hasn’t, in fact, come unhinged, just as the radical right wing has.