For those of you who love America’s pasttime - making a prediction and then cramming it down everyone’s throat when you’re right - here’s the thread for you.
Ground rules: Pick the winners of the division series, championship series and the World Series, with the number of games required.
My prediction:
ALDS
Mariners over Indians in 4 games
Athletics over Yankees in 4 games
NLDS
Astros over Braves in 5 games
Diamondbacks over Cardinals in 5 games
ALCS
Mariners over Athletics in 7 games
I’m outrageously biased as a Seattle Mariners fan, but I really think they have the best team this year. If only they can get by the A’s…
ALDS
Mariners over Indians in 5 games (Indians just don’t have the pitching)
Yankees over Athletics in 4 games
NLDS
Braves over Astros in 4 games (And I am a HUGE 'Stros fan)
Cardinals over Diamondbacks in 5 games. Somehow MUST find a way to beat Schilling/Johnson
ALCS
Yankees over Mariners in 6 games
NLCS
St. Louis over Atlanta in 6 games
World Series
Yankees over St. Louis in 5 games
The Yanks have a few things going for them: Pitching (Pettitt, Clemens, Mussina), History and that feel good NY thing.
Picking the yankees over the A’s? The A’s were 1 Gil Heredia meltdown away from beating the yanks last year, and the A’s are a markedly better team this year while all the yanks did was add Mussina. He’s good, but…
ALDS
Athletics over Yankees in 5 (I’m trying to be nice here :))
Mariners over Indians in 4 (but I really want cleveland to win)
NLDS
Astros over Braves in 5 (anyone else noticed how mediocre maddux has looked lately?)
Diamondbacks over Cardinals in 4 (RJ/schilling are too much for anyone in a short series)
ALCS
A’s over Mariners in 7 (in the best ALCS in recent memory)
NLCS
Astros over Diamondbacks in 7 (RJ/Schilling/LuGon can’t do everything)
World Series
A’s over Astros in 5 (and the NL is revealed for the pathetic division that it is)
While the A’s and Mariners are outstanding teams, the Yanks have a huge amount of post-season experience, and the confidence that goes with it. That has to be considered a major asset.
I do agree with you that whoever emerges as the American League champ (Yankees) will win the World Series.
A major difference is that the Yankees experience is in winning, while the Braves is in losing the big game.
ALDS
Mariners def. Indians, 4 games
Yankees def. A’s, 5 games
NLDS
Braves def. Astros, 4 games
Diamondbacks def. Cards, 4 games
ALCS
Yankees def. Mariners, 6 games
NLCS
Diamondbacks def. Braves, 6 games
The Yanks do have the toughest road to the series in a long time, but they are so business like in their winning. Besides, I just can’t predict my team losing.
I wonder if the sabremetrics people have done any research on whether playoff experience really makes a different; or is that a myth like clutch hitters?
(Of course, a team that has lots of playoff experience is going to be a pretty good team, it may be hard to separate the two.)
The sabre-whosis? Please elaborate, it sounds interesting.
I couldn’t point to any data showing how experience improves a player’s performance. I would think though, that a promising rookie like the Yankees Alfonso Soriano will play better and be less likely to give in to nervousness due to the fact he’s surrounded by veterans of the post-season experience. So, instead of being a liability, Soriano’s talents are more likely to make a significant contribution.
“Yeah, yeah, blah, blah, but the A’s and Mariners have better records. Post-season, shmost-season!” - I can’t argue against the talent of these teams. But winning begets winning, and the Yanks have a deep pool of experience to draw from. I think it makes up for the difference in the won-lost records of these teams.
One thing you’ll notice in any discussion of sabremetrics is that no one writes more than a few paragraphs without invoking the name of Bill James. James is far and away the best known, and probably the most insightful, of all sabremetricians. The Baseball1.com site also contains James’ summary of his most significant findings about baseball as The Bill James Primer.
The *ur-*texts of sabremetrics are the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1985), the Bill James Baseball Abstract (published annually from 1982-1988), and John Thorn and Pete Palmer’s The Hidden Game of Baseball (1984). James’ The Politics of Glory: How Baseball’s Hall of Fame Really Works (revised and republished as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame: Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory), while focused specifically on the criteria for selection to the Baseball Hall of Fame, relies extensively on sabremetric methods and in some cases updates James’ earlier works and opinions. Thorn and Palmer’s Total Baseball (now on its seventh edition} is an encyclopedia of baseball with an emphasis on sabremetric statistics and analysis. That, and James’ book on the Hall of Fame, are the only items mentioned here that are still in print, though I notice that a new edition of James’ Historical Baseball Abstract is due to be published this month.
For a brief example of the sabremetric approach, consider the most commonly used hitting statistic, batting average. For the common fan, this is the standard measure of hitting prowess. It neglects certain factors that have a decided impact on the outcome of games however, and no one who thinks for even a few moments would argue that Luis Castillo and Jeff Kent were equivalent players in 2000, even though both had the same batting average: .334. Bill James, John Thorn and Pete Palmer have all treated this subject at length, and have developed elaborately calculated statistical measures of exactly how much each hitter contributes to his team’s ability to win games. What they’ve found however, is that there’s a much simpler statistical measurement that nearly mirrors the more complicated measurement: OPS, or On Base Percentage added to Slugging Percentage. OPS correlates so closely with the more complex methods that it’s widely used as the definitive measure of a player’s offensive value. To return to our example, in 2000 Jeff Kent’s OPS was 1.020, while Luis Castillo’s was .806. Todd Helton led the majors last year with an OPS of 1.162. Barry Bonds’ batting average this year was .328, lower than either Kent’s or Castillo’s average last year, but his OPS was 1.378, the second-best in baseball history behind Ruth’s 1.379 in 1920, and over 200 points better than last year’s MLB leader.
The reason I do not pick the Mariners to win it all is cause of the TB virus that Carlos Guillen has. I think this will affect the mentality of the Seattle team and not allow them to play up to the needed effort to win over the Indians.
I’m with mouthbreather. I confidently predict that the Braves will win the division series. I further predict that the Braves will then go on to the NLCS.
I’m ready for Friday afternoon – Go for the Sweep!!