A few days ago it was BOS -135, so it’s moved a fair amount in the Red Sox’s favor.
I’m sure Nate Silver, were he here, would hasten to say 60% verrsus 40% ain’t far from a coin toss.
Honestly, though, it seems tilted Boston’s way just a little, and I don’t understand why Boston is a two to one favorite to win tonight - a fact that accounts for a lot of that 60-40. I agree that it seems a little ionsane to say a team with Clayton Kershaw starting is that big an underdog. If the Dodgers win tonight, they will of course be favorites to win the Series. So, basically, if Kershaw’s on…
I’m not saying that the Dodgers can’t win - I think the Series will be competitive. In fact there’s one advantage - potentially a big one - that the Dodgers possess over the Red Sox, and that’s a steady diet of left-handed pitching. I think the Dodgers rotation can pose a different kind of challenge for Boston, but at the same time the Sox are a consistently productive lineup.
Chris Sale is probably more important to Boston’s chances than Kershaw is for the Dodgers. For the Dodgers, they have to hope they can have more success with runners in scoring position than they have up to this point. Maybe Sale’s off and they jump on him early. As far as the late innings, I definitely think the Dodgers have an advantage in the pen. I think Urias will get the ball a lot in this series, and hope for his sake he’s not overused.
If I had to bet, I’d say that the Sox are favored because their lineup has been consistently good at controlling the strike zone and not chasing bad pitches. They consistently force pitchers to hit their spots, and they also seem good at making in-game adjustments after seeing pitch sequences.
If Kershaw can exit in the 6th or 7th with the lead, I like the Dodgers chances to finish the Sox off in the final frames. I think Kershaw will be solid in the first 1-3 innings. It’ll be a little more interesting what happens in innings 4, 5, and 6, once the lineup has been through the order - and even more interesting how Roberts assesses and responds to that situation if the Sox start to layoff pitches and Kershaw misses the strike zone by an inch or so. That’s where the breakdowns have occurred with Kershaw in big games: he’s brilliant the first time through the order, but less consistent after that. Granted, it’s worth pointing out that his few ‘meltdowns’ have occurred against really good situational hitting teams, like the Cardinals in 2013 & 14 and the Astros last year. But as good as those teams were, this Red Sox squad is probably better - by some.
At the moment it’s raining buckets with some lightning here, 30 miles west of Boston. More rain predicted tonight, maybe some hail and high winds. Play ball!
It looks like the rain is supposed to end somewhere in the 8 o’clock hour, so hopefully they’ll be able to get the game in without any great difficulty.
Go Sox!
I heard that belly button ring was removed though?
(I know, I know, that was a hoax… :D)
Small ball. 1-0 Red Sox
More small ball. 2-0
Big ball. 2-1.
Sale already hit 91 pitches walking Dozier to start the fifth, and he’s out for Matt Barnes. Not a great start, but the Red Sox are still winning.
Huh. I was wondering if Roberts would pull the trigger on a platoon arrangement, but with a guy at third I guess he had to try… Bellinger in for Taylor, flies out. Tied 3-3, going to bottom 5.
A premature Kersh pull in my opinion, but I’ll just have to trust Roberts knows what he’s doing.
Or not. One more out from Baez and it’s a very different game. Not Roberts finest moment tonight, IMHO.
Can Cora make a bad move this post-season?
The Red Sox lineup demonstrated last night why they’re the favorites. They were, with the exception of a few free swings here and there, pretty disciplined at the plate and forced Kershaw and the Dodgers relievers to hit their spots.
We also saw an example of ‘home field advantage’ in baseball when David Freese misplayed a foul ball. Granted, Freese isn’t exactly a gold glove candidate, but by not having a feel for the dimensions, he wasn’t able to get a sense of where the ball would land. That partially resulted in a first inning Red Sox run.
The news isn’t entirely bad for the Dodgers. Even though they lost and were at times confused and overpowered by Sale, they made him labor. Nothing was easy for Sale, especially after the first 2 batters. The Dodgers are a veteran team; they’re not going to panic. They’re probably thinking in terms of a 7-game series, and their approach is probably going to be similar to how they approached Milwaukee: just keep waiting, keep getting a better feel for what the pitchers can and can’t do, and wait for the pitchers to make a mistake.
I also agree with Smoltz’s analysis that Justin Turner and David Freese’s approach to attacking Red Sox pitching is the right one: take what the pitchers give them. Get on base. Hope the night guy can hit one in the gap, or better. One of the reasons why I’m bearish on LA’s chances is their tendency, going back to last year, to take home run cuts on the ball too often. Their tendency to swing up at pitches rather than through the strike zone. That killed them against the Astros. It almost killed them against the Brewers. It probably will kill them against Boston, unless they can somehow find a way to change their batting approach and move guys over into scoring position more frequently. LA’s not designed to do that with their legs; Boston is. LA will have to be much better at making contact - any contact - with runners on base. We could be looking at a Boston sweep if they don’t.
Sorry, meant ‘next’ guy. I have no idea what a ‘night’ guy is.
I did it again.
Tuned in the Series with the Sox leading 3-2. Sale walks a batter and is pulled, Barnes has a shaky inning and I shut off the TV with the score tied. The Red Sox promptly score 2 to take back the lead and win.
If I don’t watch the games, they’re a sure thing.
For the Dodgers to have any chance to defeat the baseball machine known as the Boston Red Sox, Kershaw would have to win all of his starts. That has already gone by the board.
They have been in a league of their own for the entire season, and they haven’t taken their foot of the gas pedal. They disposed of a good Houston team in 5 and, if they win game 2 tonight, will probably be making the trip back from L.A. alone because the series will be over.
Baez looked really good. Every pitch was a good pitch. On paper, it’s hard to say Roberts made the wrong call. You either get the lefty/lefty matchup if Devers stays in or you face what basically everyone would think is a weaker hitter if Nunez comes in. And you’re down a run. But man, Baez was locked int.
If the Sox win it, you deserve a ring as much as anyone on the roster. As long as you keep that TV off!