The last two Dem primaries are tomorrow. It doesn’t matter much at this point, given the existing delegate count and the meager populations of Montana and SD, but I rather expect Clinton will sweep those almost-all-white-except-for-Indians states. Any reason to think otherwise?
Polling is spotty, to say the least, but the last one I saw had Obama winning Montana.
I’d offer a cite but the boss is lurking.
Most polling has Obama winning both states.
Obama’s done well in the Great Plains/Western states thus far. Polling shows him doing well in Montana and S. Dakota now.
Really, the only surprise I can imagine is if Clinton were to win them.
On CNN this afternoon, one pundit said Montana is solidly for Obama but Clinton has been polling stronger in SD and will probably end up winning.
Montana votes for 16 delegates and S. Dakota votes for 15.
If they’re surprises, then wouldn’t we be unable to predict them by definition?
Boss-man went home, so I went cite-hunting.
This Montana poll has Obama ahead, 52-35. It was taken May 19-21, however.
Here are two more recent polls by ARG. They have Obama ahead by 4 in Montana but Clinton is ahead by 26 in South Dakota.
Well, ARG has a chance to redeem itself. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Everything I’ve heard on NPR today and this evening has Obama winning both.
‘Cognate’ results:
Obama won Wyoming 61-38.
Obama won NoDak 61-37.
BTW and FWIW, Jimmy Carter just endorsed Obama. (Or, rather, said he will endorse him after the polls close today.) And Carter is a superdelegate.
There are, as I see it, two potential surprises today - neither of which will have any impact on the eventual nominee. One would be Clinton winning SD (Montana is out of reach). The other would be Clinton acknowledging Obama as the nominee.