My NFL predictions (with a fantasy slant)

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

Actually it’s more of a rant. This is coming from my observations in my ESPN fantasy football league.

The Washington Redskins will not be as good as everyone seems to think. They’re going to be 8-8 or 9-7, MAYBE, 10-6, but they are not going to blow everyone out of the water. Especially on offense. Stephen Davis was a freakin’ FLUKE last year, Michael Westbrook is a damn nutcase, and Brad Johnson will be hurt by the 5th week of the season (and regardless of how good an arm he may have, Jeff George is not a winner. PERIOD). They don’t have an offensive line, either. Why in the hell does everyone want to just think that they’re going to be good? Norv Turner hasn’t won a damn thing in 5 years. I think the defense will be pretty good, though, but not the offense, so why are they supposed to be such a good team? The Rams and the Bucs are going to be better, and if the Cowboys can find a secondary, the Redskins might not even be the best team in their own division!

I am especially adamant about Steven Davis. That guy was nothing before last year; he’ll be nothing again this year. He’ll score 8-10 touchdowns because he will get carries, but he’s not an elite back and he never will be.

more later…

2

I’m gonna say what I’ve been saying:

The Rams will go to the SuperBowl again on 2 conditions.

  1. If they manage to stay healthy
  2. If they can beat the Bucs.

If Warner gets injured, we have Green as backup, but is Green’s knee recovered enough to stay consistant? Green also can’t go deep as well as Warner can, so the passing game will have to be shortened. We have a promising rookie in Trung Candidate should Marshall Faulk go down with injuries, but he is a rookie and promise will not make up for Faulk’s experience. As for our receivers, if Isaac Bruce is out, I think we’re pretty much ok with Ricky Proehl, Torry Holt, Az Akim. But being “pretty much ok” is still a step down from where the Rams would be with Bruce. There’s also the whole punting situation - having just traded for a rookie and cutting veteran punter Tuten. On defense, will Kevin Carter remain the sack king, or will contract troubles be a distraction for him?

I say the Rams will go 11-5, maybe 12-4.

The Bucs are much improved this year from last and look like the team to beat. I say they’ll go 13-3.

On the other side of the fence, I say the Titans and the Colts are going to be the contenders.

3

um, HELLO!

Davis is NOT a fluke. And if he falters, we have Skip Hicks, who’s no slouch himself.

We have Brad Johnson, with targets of Westbrook, Connell, Alexander, James Thrash…and hell, George didn’t do too bad in Minnesota now, did he?

The O-line is a question mark, I’ll give you that. But after Game 1, we get Tre Johnson back. (THANK GODDESS!) They’re looking good in hte preseason, and I think they’ll do okay. Still a little concerned with Raymer being out, though.

And hell, the defense may FINALLY come together. We have Arrington. We have Deion. We have Darell Green as a BACKUP! One of the best corners ever, and the defense is so full, he’s a backup.

And who the HELL is better in the NFC East? Aikman has no one to throw to and their secondary sucks. Philly…nope. Cardinals? Nope. Giants? Maybe in a year…not now. (Sorry, Satan. But Ron Dayne is NOT looking too good.) So we’ve got the East wrapped up.

I’m predicting 11-5, and that they go to the Super Bowl. Where they lose narrowly to Tennessee. :slight_smile:

4

Well, I wouldn’t run to far with that Bucs talk. I’ve been reading alot about this Gary Crowton fellow in the Windy City. He’s running one of the slickest offenses I’ve ever seen. Quick hitch passes, linemen blocking upfield, QB getting rid of the ball in less than 2 steps, and the zone blitzers run right past the play…It’s quick strike offense at it’s finest, and the Bears had last year to learn it…this year they’ll master it. They finished 3rd in passing last year…starting 3 different QBs who threw for more than 1,000 yards each and they had 10 receivers with 13 receptions or more. Now try to tell me that is not efficient football! The NFC Central will be a tight division regardless, but if McNown and Enis stay healthy and confident, a division title could return to Chicago. As for the NFC East, another close race. Again, it all depends on the confidence of a rookie, the Great Dayne. If he has a breakout season, the Giants could end up in the Super Bowl. Dallas has no chance with such a weak secondary. But the Redskins will probly end up on top when all is said and done. I don’t think I need to explain the NFC West situatiuon. Rams, no question.

Now, in the AFC, there aren’t going to be a whole lot of surprises. The Colts & the Titans are certian shoe-ins for the playoffs, and regardless of who wins the West…they won’t make it past the first game of the playoffs.

So, to make a long analysis short…If the Bears remain mysterious and dangerous, it could be an interesting season! Otherwise…same ol’, same ol’…Rams 31, Titans 24

-Rick
JerkWaterJive

5

My picks, and you can take 'em to Vegas with my blessing.

Starting with last year’s Super Bowl Teams.

Rams - Still miles ahead of the rest of their division, a definate playoff team. Will drop a few games off of last years record now that they have a first place schedule and no teams will be suprised by the schemes or speed. Warner will have a solid year, and a healthy Faulk is the real superstar. 11-5 record mostly winning against the NFC West.

Titans - By far the best team in the NFL. George will dominate and their defense is even batter than last year, its frightening. Kearse gets stronger, McNair gets smarter, and the wide outs are fast and healthy. I’m being conservative by picking them at 14-2.

Buccaneers - This team will be an enigma, they could go either way. They will win the NFC Central, but might not dominate. The main fear I have is a diversion from their proven strategy, K. Johnson might push them into playing a more perimeter offense. The Bucs win my being tougher and stronger, giving the teams a break by passing to the sidelines could hurt the power running game. The defense will still be the best in the NFC, second to the Titans overall. I’m picking them with a qualified 12-4, give or take a game on Johnson’s offensive influence.

Redskins - They are posers. Big budget, big name talent and more personality conflicts than a week of Springer. Westbrook will explode again, not that he’s ever done a damn thing notable on the field anyways. Davis will crumble with no line, expect a turnstyle of injured running backs. The QB contraversy is the last straw costing Turner his job, after a final mark of 9-6.

Colts - No suprises here, huge offensive numbers for the big 3. Manning gets everyone the ball and they score lots of points. The defense is better and solid enough to win them lots of games. The AFC East is finally slipping to become the weakest in the AFC, only better than the NFC West overall. 12-4 going deep into the playoffs.

Jaguars - A heathly Brunell and Taylor push these guys into contention. A broken O and D line cost them several games. They lose several divisional games, but decimate the rest of their schedule to be the top wildcard. 10-6 overall.

Things to watch: The AFC West is a cluster fuck, every team is very equal. A healthy Denver is competitive, Oakland might is my pick to win the division by a cunt hair. San Diego is much improved and knocks off some divisional opponents, KC is fired up and beats some people in spite of not having any offense. Seattle is good again, but still not great. In the AFC East, the Bills are over-rated, and the Jets and Dolphins are the worst teams in football. Bledsoe is hot and cold keeping things interesting for teh Colts. In the NFC Central everyone is shocked to see the Packers in the cellar and Farve coming apart, the Lions are Jekyll and Hyde, while the Vikings improve over last season but show weaknesses on defense and growing pains of future star Culpepper. The NFC East is the most competitive division with a bunch of teams going nowhere. The Cowboys are still winners, and the Redskins get by on raw talent. The Cardinals improve immensely. And everyone is shocked to see the Eagles at .500. The Giants ride Dayne to a dull but successful season. The division is a complete toss up with every team having a shot at winning it, and losing in the first round of the playoffs.

Teams to watch:

Bears - They live up to the expectations with the best passing game in the league. McNown starts looking like a professional, but isn’t ready for primetime. Miller sees some very effective starts again. The running game suffers, but the much improved defense come together at midseason to take second in the division and a wildcard spot.

Bengals - Believe it or not, Cincy wins alot of games this year. No postseason, but they beat Jacksonville and suprise some very good teams. The new grass field finally keeps them healthy for a full season, and their offense thrives. Dillon might win the rushing title.

Falcons - Its all or nothing for these guys this year, they either resume where the left off when Anderson whent down and grab a wild card spot, or they completely fold and give up on the Glass Chandler. Could play a big part of how good the Rams record is.

Best 4 Teams this year: Titans, Bucs, Colts and Rams
Worst 4 Teams this year: Jets, 49ers, Dolphins and Packers

6

Falcon -

What did Stephen Davis do for the three years before last year? I’ll tell you:

1996 139 yds 2 TD
1997 567 yds 3 TD
1998 109 yds 0 TD

Then in 1999 he has 1405 yds and 17 TDs? That’s the stuff that flashes in the pan are made of. There is no way he comes close to that this year, yet all I keep hearing is how good the Redskins are going to be and one of the reasons that’s always mentioned is Stephen Davis. And then, on ESPN the guy is averaging the 6th pick in completed drafts… I just don’t get it. Stephen Davis will be this year’s Jamal Anderson. He has one good year, so everyone jumps on the bandwagon and then, blah. He’ll either get hurt or he will suck. Jamal Anderson won’t do anything this year, either. TD will have a huge year, imho, but Anderson and Davis should be roommates in fluke city.

Has Jeff George ever done anything? Yes, he puts up numbers and yes, he looks good, but how many teams have said “Man, this guy is great! Why did the colts/falcons/raiders/vikings ever let him go?”

They will have a good defense, but offensively, the Redskins just ain’t got it.

7

I guess I should also quit jumping on the Redskins and give my picks:

NFC
Redskins (there’s nobody better in the division)
Bucs
Rams

AFC
Colts
Tennessee
Seattle
Tennessee over the Bucs in the Super Bowl.

8

I see the Skins over the Colts. Davis isn’t an elite back, but the line is good enough for him to look good. Even if Johnson gets hurt, George has matured slowly, but he has, and they ran off all the QBs in Minn, if Culpepper isn’t great, Denny Green will be working at Denny’s. Manning is an elite QB, Harrison and James fine also, and James may already be an elite back.
Bucs? Your QB is Shaun King. NEXT! Titans are a good club and have a shot, but I like that Colts O…Lets see if the Rams can repeat with a #1 sched. Don’t think they did too well with good teams last year during regular season play, and now everyone will be up for them. Love the Kurt Warner story, and Green was having a GREAT preseason last year befor eh got hurt. Depth at QB always helps.

9

Ignatiusjreilly - I have to agree with Falcon on this one. I don’t see Davis as a one-year wonder. First, it is fairly rare to see one year wonders at RB (exception = back-up performing admirably but never getting a shot again when the starter comes back, Olandis Gary?). One-game wonders sure, but he kept it up for a whole season, and appears to be doing just as well in preseason. As for his prior years, well they had Terry Allen and Brian Mitchell in front of him, he never had a chance to make it big.

As for Washington, I think they’ll be fine and will win the NFC East no problem. Don’t forget, they beat the Buc for over three quarters last year, and had the ball not bounced right into Warrick Dunn’s hands on a fumble they probably would have won the game and gone to NFC championship game.

My Predictions:

AFC East - Colts
AFC Cent - Titans
AFC West - Raiders
Wildcards = Jaguars, Bills, and Broncos

NFC East - Redskins
NFC Central - Bucs
NFC West - Rams
Wildcards = Vikings, Bears, and Eagles

Most Improved teams = Eagles, Bears, Saints

Superbowl=
Titans 31
'Skins 23

10

Nah, they’d be afraid that he’d eat them out of business. :smiley:

11

First off: Omni, are you HIGH? Taylor’s already injured!!! Jaguars are going nowhere fast…I predict 8-8 for them this year. I also disagree on Tampa…good D, but I think the offense is one year away. I have them going 10-6.

Now then. Ignatius. No, George isn’t spectacular. But if Johnson goes down (and a current side bet in my office league is which game he does this in…), the Skins have a good backup ready. Sort of like how O’Donnell backs up McNair in Tennessee.

On Davis…I just disagree. Do I think he’ll be as good as last season? No. Defenses can prepare a little better for him now. However, I think he’ll get over 1000 yards rushing, and close to or over 10 TDs. The Skins have beefed up the line, so he can finally get the protection he needs to run.

(And aside…I love football season.)

12

You know, come to think of it, he’d probably have a hard time getting an application at Denny’s…

13

But falcon - this gets back to my original rant - i agree that davis will get 10/1000 simply because he will get a lot of carries. But is that really worth the 6th pick in a fantasy draft? I don’t think so…

I don’t really know why I’m ranting as this will probably work better for me, anyway…

14

ig - You may be being a little harsh on Stephen Davis. Give him a chance this year, and we’ll see if he’s a flash-in-the-pan. He certainly wouldn’t be the first player to have a nondescript first couple of seasons before busting out in a big way.

I agree with you about not believing the hype on the Redskins. Add the Bucs to that list as well, as far as I’m concerned. I don’t think they’ll do as well as last year. I’m not a big believer in their offensive backfield (King, Alstott and Dunn), and I don’t think their defense can possibly play as well as they did in '99.

Indianapolis and Tennessee look like the teams to beat in the AFC, with the Rams and everybody else in a jumble in the NFC.

Watch out for my Detroit Lions (stop snickering!). Although I don’t think they’ll make the Super Bowl, I do think they’ll win the NFC Central and a game or two in the playoffs. Batch is looking good in practice; their wide receiver trio (Crowell, Moore, Morton) is probably better than anyone else’s, and I think Stewart will have a big year at running back.

The Lions made it to the playoffs last year on sheer scrappiness, having lost their starting QB and at least four offensive linemen. Both lines are big, deep and healthy this year.

Remember, you heard it here first.

[fantasy football aside] I had the live draft today for a league I’m in on NFL.com (not the Straight Dope Sandbox League).

I’m LOADED!

  • Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon (who put up huge numbers last year) at QB.

  • Running back a bit iffy with Biakabutuka, Wheatley and Olandis Gary (I know Terrell is back, but how can he not get some carries after the numbers he put up?)

  • Check out this receiver corps: Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Isaac Bruce, Albert Connell. Tight end: Ricky Dudley. Simply DEVASTATING.

Let’s skip the last exhibition game and start playing for real, dammit! Cue Hank Jr.!

15

Ignatius - I actually agree with you there. Davis isn’t in my top 10 players for my fantasy drafts. I think he’s a very good player, and will continue to be one. I also think there’s more than 5 better players out there. (And was he 6th overall, or 6th out of running backs only? The second I’d agree with.)

And Milo, honey…

True, the Lions might make it to the playoffs. Where they will immediately lose to the Redskins like they always do.

ducking and running

16

Wait! Darrel Green is a backup this year? That’s really a shame; the man is probably better than damn near anybody else on the field. Did you see him get an interception in the playoffs last year * while barely recovered from bronchitis? * I had bronchitis at about the same time, and I was barely leaving my room for two weeks…

Davis is a fluke? The fact that he put up those numbers with an sub-par offensive line doesn’t say anything to you?

But I suppose the Cowboys are going to win the division right out from under them…

…and pigs might fly :rolleyes:

17

I like Steven Davis, and in no way believe he’s a one year wonder. But THE SIXTH PICK IN THE DRAFT?? Eech. I’m pretty sure he’s not the sixth best running back (he’s good, but the Redskins have a LOT of weapons).

Milo–hate to say this, but I definitely see problems with your running backs: I’ve got Biakabutuka in my league, and, though I like him, he gets hurt easily and has a tendency to be very inconsistent. Wheatley’s good but splits time, and Gary definitely will split a LOT of time. Also, Brad Johnson’s injury prone (but talented).

Your receiver core is AWESOME! (Dudley’s one of the better tight ends, and Carter or Bruce as your third wideout? Sheesh)

I agree with you re Detroit, and they could have a big rushing year if Aaron Gibson and Stockar McDougle (sp?) perform as expected. That O-Line is HUGE.
Oh, and Myrr21? Ravens might very well make the playoffs.

18

I think that Kurt Warner will get hurt, Trent Green will step up and do just as well as Warner did last year, proving how spectacularly unspectacular you can be and still kick butt at the quarterback position with the embarrassment of offensive options the Rams have on their team.

19

ignatiusjreilly - I do agree with you that Davis at the 6th overall pick in the draft is too high. I just got the Sports Illustrated NFL Preview and couldn’t believe it - their Player Value Rankings have him at #5 overall!! (Warner, Manning, M. Faulk, E. James are the top four in that order.)

20

Think Davis is bad at the sixth pick, ig?

In the aforementioned league I’m in, some guy took Ricky Williams in the first round with about the sixth pick.

Maybe it’s his cousin or childhood best friend or something.

Watched that St. Louis - Dallas game last night. Green runs that offense about as good as Warner, doesn’t he? I see no reason why the Rams won’t be back on top again this year. What a fast team.