My Wild-Assed Guesses about where the Dresden novels are headed (long).

(Since this discussion mentions plot points from multiple Dresden novels, spoilers if you haven’t read them all yet).

O.K., I have a theory about the overall arc of the Dresden novels and where the series might be headed. It’s based on a synthesis of several plot points and a recurring theme in the stories. First, some plot points:[ol]
[li]We’ve learned that there is a mysterious bad guy out there, Dresden calls him “Cowl” and his organization “The Black Council” (although in one story we hear an underling apparently talking to him about “The Circle”[/li][li]Cowl is apparently an accomplished necromancer and skilled in the use of a dark power that isn’t just black magic (a perversion of life energy) but an actual anti-life energy.[/li][li]Cowl is allied with “The Outsiders”, mysterious evil beings from who knows where, powerful and dangerous.[/li][li]Cowl has a female underling or apprentice, apparently not so bad a person but in the worst company imaginable.[/li][li]Two mysterious observers- Cowl and his apprentice?- where there when Bianca of the Red Court threw a party and handed out “gifts” to some distinguished guests, including Dresden’s fairy godmother Leanansidhe, a Dragon, and others. [/li][li]In the novel following that, strange occurrences nearly lead to war between the Summer and Winter Fae. We learn that it was caused by the Summer Lady apparently gone insane, and Dresden has to kill her. [/li][li]In later novels we find that Leanansidhe is being held prisoner for her own “good” by Mab the Winter Queen, who is acting strangely taciturn as if there’s something she dare not talk about, even going so far as to remain mute in one story and speaking through an underling. By the events of Changes Leanansidhe is back saying that Mab “cured” her. In Cold Days it turns out that the Winter Lady has been corrupted like the Summer Lady was.[/li][li]We find out that the White Council and even the Denarians have members serving other masters. A program to secretly control the White Council members’ minds had been underway.[/li][li]The Red Court apparently had substantial outside assistance from somewhere in it’s war against the White Council.[/li][/ol]

Whew! A lot of recap. Now the recurring theme I mentioned; taken together, the novels tell a story of increasing consolidation. Magic users are either being joined together, neutralized, or eliminated: [ol]
[li]The White Council steps up it’s program against rogue black magic users, eliminating free agents.[/li][li]The Red Court goes to war against the White Council, both sides seeking to line up allies.[/li][li]The White Court tries to remain neutral; as a result Cowl and the Outsiders attempt to massacre most of the White Court, excepting an allied faction that was seeking to eliminate sub-Wizard level minor magic users from the human population. This is defeated and Dresden’s childhood sweetheart the fugitive Wizardess Elaine organizes the minor talents into a self-protection league.[/li][li]The Denarians come up with a plan to enslave the Archive, one of the most powerful independent magical talents in existence. While this would serve their purposes, it would also continue the theme of consolidation, especially since there was at least one traitor within their group.[/li][li]Winter and Summer are paralyzed from most worldly intervention by the imbalance caused by the strange corruption infiltrating them. In addition, we learn that the outer border of the Nevernever is under seige by the Outsiders.[/li][/ol]

So what does all this suggest to me?[ol]
[li]Someone- presumably Cowl- is trying to create the Standard Oil of all magic: to gain control over all magical or supernatural power that can manifest on Earth.[/li][li]The gifts handed out at Bianca’s party were cursed, intended to allow him to gain control over their recipients.[/li][li]Cowl’s principle strategy was using the Red Court, offering encouragement and support in it’s war against the White Council. Presumably the events of Changes have thrown a wrench into that.[/li][li]Who is Cowl? I think he was formerly Justin DuMorne, Dresden’s old master. And that before that he was Kremmler the Necromancer, and who knows who before that.[/li][li]Cowl’s female apprentice is Elaine, who doesn’t even know it. As DuMorne he gained control of Elaine’s mind and has resumed controlling her. That she’s the one keeping track of the minor talents is also convenient.[/li][li]The Winter Queen Mab learned of the cursed gift Leanansidhe had received and has since been working to free the Fae of Cowl’s influence.[/li][li]Cowl’s goal is nothing less than to wrench control of Earth and humanity away from both Heaven and Hell, establishing it as an independent third realm. In this his allies (bosses?) are the Outsiders, “alien” demons from other universes who were not supposed to ever have had anything to do with our universe at all.[/li][li]Dresden’s own theme, of having had from the beginning to always fight above his weight class, points to his eventually taking on someone who has defeated death. If Harry can’t win, the entire universe will be plunged into a never-ending nightmare.[/li][/ol]

I’m not sure where Mab remaining mute in one story bolsters your theory, as we find out in Cold Days that she’s upset because Maeve has fallen under the influence of the Nemesis, and she cannot talk to mortals without injuring them due her agitated state.

Butcher has assured us that DuMorne is dead. DEAD, and will not be back. I wish I could google up the source of the statement, but all I’ve found is multiple people reminding others that this is the case, without themselves citing the statement. Maybe it was in a Youtube interview/panel. In any case, many people have trouble taking this at face value. If not for the Word of Jim, DuMorne would fit here pretty damn well. Then again, if Kemmler killed DuMorne and took over his body, Butcher could go around emphatically saying that DuMorne was dead, while neglecting to mention that Harry never even met the real DuMorne. That strikes me as the sort of thing that would tickle Butcher greatly.

The mystery of Cowl is a tough one. He’s a masked villain, and where’s the fun in that if you don’t get a big reveal at the end? Who could he be?

[ul]
[li]McCoy, maybe working both ends to break down the council and reform it the way he wants? Nah.[/li]
[li]The Gatekeeper? Doesn’t ring true. Seems to me he could have killed Harry or let him die a few times instead of providing advice and aid.[/li]
[li]The Merlin? Guy’s a control freak, maybe he wants to reform the council in a manner more to his liking, one he couldn’t accomplish with politics. [/li]
[li]Listens-to-Wind/Injun Joe? There’s a guy who has a lot of anger and pain after what his tribe went through, and he/the council not helping them eats at him. Maybe he’s not as at peace with that as it seems, and wants to destroy or remake the council.[/li]
[li]I was thinking it was Gregory Cristos, the newest Senior Council member. He’s known enough that he would have to hide his face, but I think even the lowliest apprentice would hide their face if they were performing necromancy and going up against other members of the White Council - it’s a pretty small, select group. Some of the things Cowl says to Harry indicates he knows of him, but doesn’t know him well. When they fight in front of Bock Ordered Books, he says, “I’ve been wondering why you make the council so nervous.”, or words to that effect.[/li]
[li]DuMorne would be the classic bad guy who couldn’t be killed, coming back yet again. Kemmler takes over DuMorne’s body at the big Kemmler-off in the 60’s, and DuKemmler grabs Bob and bides his time, then starts to gather minions to him. Maybe he picks the wrong guy and Harry momentarily gets the advantage of him, or maybe it’s just a fake battle/death, designed to start Harry’s training towards a task that DuKemmler wants him to perform. Harry was at high risk for being beheaded for that fight, though. I guess DuKemmler could count on McCoy to save him. If he knew of their connection, it was a good bet McCoy would save him. [/li][/ul]

Kumori’s tough. There’s not an abundance of woman wizards in the books. The only ones I can think of, that have any power, are alive, and have a name, are Molly, Elaine, Martha Liberty, and Ancient Mai. Liberty’s not well-filled-out, but what we know doesn’t sound like Kumori. Mai doesn’t fit Kumori in power or personality, even if she’s playing coy and letting it appear Cowl is the real power. Molly - just can’t be. Harry knows too much about her, and the timeline doesn’t fit. Unless Molly gets out of the Winter Lady gig and does some time-travel, it’s not her. That leaves Elaine, which can’t be ruled out. Of course, Kumori might just be a random White Council member associated with Cowl. Edit: ACK, forgot the Captain, but I don’t think it her either

I think I’m gonna agree with you: DuKemmler is Cowl. It’s possible Elaine is Kumori. I don’t know the nature of the big apocalyptic scenario Butcher has planned, or what Cowl hopes to gain, but I figure it involves Demonreach and the Outer Gates.
Less than a week until Skin Games comes out! I look forward to finding out what the hell is up with Harry’s parasite. That’s just weird, man.

Reading DEAD BEAT, I see where Cowl says,(paraphrased), “I have nothing but disdain for the madman Kemmler.”

I was remembering his dislike of the other Kemmerites, but I forgot his specific hatred of Kemmler himself. As he specifically expressed his dislike for Kemmer, it seems Cowl cannot be Kemmler, in DuMorne’s body or otherwise.