Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

[lilflower]

I still really don’t like Scuba Ben’s voting record from yesterDay. He seems way more concerned about saving himself than actually voting for scum.

@Scuba_Ben

I’m doing my best not to in this game. I know I have a history of throwing a clot as soon as I come under the slightest suspicion, to say nothing of being the vote leader.

Still, I’m going to have to lay down a defensive vote. Official vote count please? With pie on top?

Here he votes for Silver Jan even though he received a message that she was town. Plus, he blames me for it and justifies it by saying he hopes he got a false message.

@Scuba_Ben

I just now got back. I haven’t been able to catch up from post 1501 on, due to day job and very very tired. I feared I’d be checking in and resigning myself to being lynched.

Instead I find I’m now 3rd, with Silver Jan first.

I wish to repeat the message I received overNight: I was informed that Silver Jan is a Villager.

If Jan flips Wolf then either I am lying about my message or my message is lying to me. There’s more information to be gained by lynching me – should I flip Town (and I will) it demonstrates that I am accurately reporting my message AND strongly indicates that Idle accurately reported HIS message about Dancecat.

I need to review the case on gnarlycharlie, buried somewhere in the last 10 pages. For now, I prefer to see GC hang than Jan, because I consider Jan confirmed Town.

**unvote Weedy
vote gnarlycharlie
**

And now to look at the posts voting on GC and Jan.

@Scuba_Ben

Wow. That is very interesting. And I only just now saw this post by searching for Jan’s posts.

I targeted gnarlycharlie.
Jan got an investigation result on him.
I got an investigation result on Jan.

Did ANYBODY get an investigation result on THEIR OWN target? (Don’t answer that Today!)

And crazy stuff is, Jan seems to be the vote leader at present!

Let me throw out an idea: Lynch me. I flip Town, validating my information that Jan is a Villager. This in turn validates Jan’s information that gnarlycharlie is a Wolf. Then we can lynch gnarlycharlie Tomorrow, and spend the rest of the Day comparing notes on who targeted whom and got results on whom. What do you all think?

@Scuba_Ben

After some more thinking, and reading lilflower in #1883, I have to agree that lynching a claimed mason with a corroborating mason claim is Not Good Play.

unvote gnarlycharlie

AOP. Defensive, self-preservation vote, as I will be AFK for the last hour of the Day: vote Silver Jan and hope that I got a false message. I’m blaming lilflower for forcing me to cast a self-preservation vote.

@Scuba_Ben

First, now that I’m presently not in danger, unvote Silver Jan. Hopefully I’ll figure out in the next hour some other vote.

Second @ pwnsall: I don’t know what the deal is. All I know is that I have to submit two targets for Tonight.

@NAF #2330: Which post is your purple prose? I might be convincible.

[Drain_Bead]

@lilflower

I’ve been over and over my notes for Day 2 and I don’t like these posts by Drain Bead. In the same vein as brewha, she is advocating lynching Jan just to get information even while admitting that Silver Jan might be town. Drain Bead, can your reasoning again, please?

Well, first off, any Townie who doesn’t acknowledge that the person that they’re voting for could be Town is delusional. It’s entirely possible that sangaman is Town. Ditto Scathach. At the time, I found the claims of the Masons to be more believable than Jan, so I was willing to test her claim. As the Day went on, I began questioning some of my assumptions. I didn’t say this yesterDay, but I will now: I think the existence of Krayz’s role in this game means that there’s going to be a ridiculous amount of noise being sent in these messages, and much of it will be unreliable. As people came out with messages, it occurred to me that it was more likely that the message was wrong, rather than the messenger. At that point, I unvoted her. But at the point in time I voted her, I thought she was lying Scum, BUT that if she was Town, we’d learn more from her death than we would by testing the claim through killing gnarlycharlie. Therefore, I thought we had the most to gain, in terms of scum-hunting and/or information gathering, depending on results, from lynching Jan.

TLDR version: Townies should know that they might be voting for a Townie at any time. Vote for who you think is Scum. If you’re testing competing claims, though, you may want to also factor in which one will gain the most net info for Town, although if those turn out to be two different people, choose the one you think is Scum. But if those are the same person, it’s worth bringing up.

[lilflower]

@Episkey

I have class.
<snip>

SCUM TELL!! Villagers have no class whatsoever.

[Suburban_Plankton]

@Normal_Phase

I took a quick look at sangaman’s posts and saw nothing that makes me want to try to save him. If he hadn’t said what he had about nine scum and someone had highlighted his posts first, I probably would have been OK with his lynch on that alone. I’m not going to waste time dissecting the posts of someone who’s overwhelmingly likely to be lynched regardless (unless that situation changes), but his long day two post about the Krayz wagon felt overexplained (just one example; why does anyone need to waste words explaining why a wolf’s vote was scummy?):

I had the same feeling about his explanation Today. He finally came back and told us why he picked the number 9, then 10 posts later explained it again, and slightly differently. ‘Over-explanation’ generally suggests untruthfullness; not just in Mafia, but in life.

And this (aimed at Pizza), I doubt I would ever ping on save for pre-existing reasons to suspect sangaman, but it is awfully typical of scum to criticize non-scum power roles (without any actual teeth in it) when they do unexpected or non-traditional things.

this behavior is often seen in Town as well, though.

Finally, being around at end of day yesterday while the Blaster/Inner thing was going on and NOT committing to either side is certainly suggestive.

I’ve been going back and forth on this. Yes he was ‘around’, but he mentioned a number of times being busy at work and therefore unable to give the game his full attention. I can sympathize with that, as I myself was playing catch-up for much of the late-Day activities. I had a vote on **Scuba_Ben **from much earlier in the Day and was reluctant to move it onto any of the fast-moving bandwagons. But then, **sangaman **hadn’t made any cases against anyone, so he lacks even that excuse

So it’s not slam-dunk in my mind given the P2P context that was offered, and I will be looking at additional suspects if I can work my way out of the funk I’ve been in since about 7 pm last night, but it’s good enough.

No, it’s not a slam dunk by any means. But given his somewhat contradictory attempt at defending himself, and since he has made very little effort all game to do any analysis, I think it’s good enough for the moment.

vote sangaman

I still need to review the subjects of last Night’s whispers to see if there’s anything there.

[Astral_Rejection]

@NAF1138

Correct.

Also Astral did jump all over gnarly yesterDay. We had a whole long argument where I called him earthshatteringly stupid.

Good times.

[NAF1138]

@Astral_Rejection

Good times.

Mafia is a great way for me to vent frustration and know that no one is really going to take it personally.

[Idle_Thoughts]

Back and catching up now.

@Askthepizzaguy

Giraffe- declined
Silver Jan- declined
Normal Phase-** Brewha, scathach, Zeriel**
Scuba_Ben- declined
Idle Thoughts- declined
PCM- declined
Astral Rejection- declined
Scathach- delclined
NAF- declined
special ed- declined
lilflower- declined
Drain Bead- declined
pwnsall- declined
Plankton- declined

Uh, did you miss post 2883?

@Idle_Thoughts

Topic is moving fast now…

I’ll play:
Sangaman (after that slip)
Brewha
long gap
Probably Silver Jan or Scathach

@pwnsall

ok i found it sort of

wolf messenger every night you send a random living role to your target

i think that that meant that it told you you were whatever role, but it was actually a lie, which isn’t what this is

Isn’t this the role that Blaster Master had? He had a role where he PMed his alignment (falsely) to a player.

@sangaman

Ughhhh what a dumb mistake by me. I wish I could say I was good enough to be aware of the game’s set-up and not mess up like I did by saying there are 9 wolves. I didn’t understand what was going on at first when people were questioning my post. I could have sworn the OP said there were 9 wolves but apparently I was wrong. I am used to 1/4 of the players (37 in this case) being wolves, and just assumed that was incontrovertibly the case in this game which evidently was a mistake.

I understand it looks terrible and could cut my game short but I still want to try to help win this game for the village. I don’t know what else to say, but I’m not scum and I’ll try to get a wolf lynched today.

I don’t buy it, sorry. Bolding mine.
That sounds like a (very bad) lie. Since when has the mod EVER said how many scum there were, in game? I’ve never played in a game where this has happened. I’d think it would take away a lot of the game’s mystery and make it much easier. Even in open set ups, the mod never reveals how many scum there are.
Has that ever happened on the 2p2 forums? :dubious:

---

Re: Episkey and NAF…at this point, I’m not so sure the messages can be trusted anymore. It’s all well and good if someone can figure it out (if there does happen to be some sort of pattern or logic puzzle to it), but we’ve seen (at least) two possible whispers that were wrong (so far).

[pwnsall]

@Suburban_Plankton

By that you mean a Villager that falsely discloses their alignment to their target? The same basic ability as Blaster Master, but in a Villager role?

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see that.

yeah something like that, makes sense to me

given i know i’m a villager and another wolf whisper is villager i’d guess 3 villagers is the most likely outcome for those 3 people, with the last person just being some sort of rand peek

then again i could be a rand peek who happened to be picked villager

i suppose this is probably what pizza was analyzing earlier

[LightFoot]

@Suburban_Plankton

I had the same feeling about his explanation Today. He finally came back and told us why he picked the number 9, then 10 posts later explained it again, and slightly differently. ‘Over-explanation’ generally suggests untruthfullness; not just in Mafia, but in life.

That was my reaction to the response as well I would have beat feet to get back here and explain what I REALLY MEANT if I had made a Scummy comment in error. And made sure it was not Scummy in itself.

this behavior is often seen in Town as well, though.

I’ve been going back and forth on this. Yes he was ‘around’, but he mentioned a number of times being busy at work and therefore unable to give the game his full attention. I can sympathize with that, as I myself was playing catch-up for much of the late-Day activities. I had a vote on **Scuba_Ben **from much earlier in the Day and was reluctant to move it onto any of the fast-moving bandwagons. But then, **sangaman **hadn’t made any cases against anyone, so he lacks even that excuse

There is one post that I responded to where ** sangaman ** called me and a couple others I think to explain our actions. I responded and it went unread as far as I saw. I counted with a ‘baby smudge’ to get his attention to my response and that went unanswered as well.

No, it’s not a slam dunk by any means. But given his somewhat contradictory attempt at defending himself, and since he has made very little effort all game to do any analysis, I think it’s good enough for the moment.

vote sangaman

I still need to review the subjects of last Night’s whispers to see if there’s anything there.

Coupled with A known Scum counting Scum

Originally Posted by Blaster Master
Catching up, so I dunno if this has been addressed, but I just don’t think your reasoning is solid here. Even running with the assumption that both of those reads are correct and with the maximum reasonable number of scum I theorized of 9, that’s still a 28/37 chance that either read is correct just by pure dumb luck. snipped

It does not bode well

[lilflower]

@Askthepizzaguy

Giraffe- declined
Silver Jan- declined
Normal Phase-** Brewha, scathach, Zeriel**
Scuba_Ben- declined
Idle Thoughts- declined
PCM- declined
Astral Rejection- declined
Scathach- delclined
NAF- declined
special ed- declined
lilflower- declined
Drain Bead- declined
pwnsall- declined
Plankton- declined

So, nobody wants to play the name three suspects game except Normal Phase.

Very well. Pizza is disappoint.
Results were that **Episkey **and **NAF1138 **were wolves.

The two messages were in separate boxes leading me to believe I got the results of two whispering folks at once.

For the record, I don’t trust these results on Episkey and NAF. But there they are.

It’s a bit disingenuous to say that we all “declined”, especially when it’s going on our permanent records!

At the time of you posting this, I hadn’t even thought about it let alone said that I wasn’t going to answer. But had you pressed me for a response, I would have declined anyway. I agree with the arguments against such a list.

The other thing that I want to add (which I think someone else has also said), you are a little demanding for someone who isn’t yet confirmed. I don’t have a good read on you one way or the other so I don’t feel any compulsion to respond to your requests. I’m not trying to be difficult or evasive but I’m rather wary of perhaps falling into some scum trap (and yes, I think it’s a possibility, albeit small, that you are scum). So I don’t like your comment that this is going “on record” that players are declining to answer you. You make it sound like just because some people aren’t going along with you that they should be under some suspicion.

Personally, I would have waited until I was more or less confirmed town before I put on my bossy pants.

[pwnsall]

another possibility is a wolf who picks a person and they get a random whisper about someone’s role

dunno if that role would be more likely to give random affiliation or opposite

[Gadarene]

UPDATED DAY THREE VOTE COUNT

Through post #3191.

sangaman (7): Scuba_Ben [2874], Idle Thoughts [2880], Giraffe [2885], Scathach [2892], NAF1138 [2896], Drain Bead [3172], Suburban Plankton [3184]
Silver Jan (1): Zeriel [2701]
Idle Thoughts (1): pwnsall [2729]
Episkey (1): Astral Rejection [2984]
Astral Rejection (1): Askthepizzaguy [2992]
Precambrianmollusc (1): septimus [3080]
lilflower (0): [del]Giraffe [2876][/del]
Zeriel (0): [del]Silver Jan [2758][/del]
LightFoot (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [2746][/del]
Brewha (0): [del]Idle Thoughts [2694][/del]
Giraffe (0): [del]Silver Jan [2848][/del]
Scathach (0): [del]Drain Bead [2704][/del]

Please PM me with any corrections.

[Normal_Phase]

If there’s a pattern to the remaining messages, with DanceCat and Blaster gone, then another day or two of results might turn it up. Episkey, NAF and gnarly all turned up scum; Silver Jan turned up town. It is my opinion that the third of those is false and the fourth likely true. Assuming the same two powers in use each time, about all I think that is ruled out is either of the message-creators being naive. It’s possible that one of the powers belongs to a mafioso and is deliberately misleading in some fashion (all results scum? couldn’t just be reversed since that’s actually town friendly); it’s also still possible that both are entirely random.

I don’t remember any repeat of the type of message Weedy reported yesterday about TexCat (alignment and role); have I missed it or is it really missing?

[Episkey]

@gnarlycharlie

Silver Jan received a message that i was a wolf. TexCat and i claimed mason. Weedy received a message that TexCat is a villager and a mason. there were other revelations but those are the ones pertinent to me.

Ok then, here we go:

1. On night 1 I targeted Silver Jan, who was my eod1 largest wolf suspect.

2. On day 2, nothing bad happened to Silver Jan so I figured targeting wolves wouldn’t be helpful. At the same time, I didn’t want to target large villa leans of mine in case I was something like an even night vig or something. So I targeted someone vocal, but not a villa or scum lean of mine: Pizza.

3. I believe I am responsible for the Gnarly and myself messages. I have no idea how gnarly and myself became the targets of the “investigation”. I do not take responsibility for the NAF message as I don’t know how likely it is that BOTH of these messages are incorrect, and I know for certainty mine is incorrect.

4. I do not know if the messages I am responsible are Paranoid (Idk if you all use the same phrase, but meaning “always comes up wolf”) or Insane (always comes up backwards). I am hoping it is insane, as at least that will be useful once we figure it out where as paranoid would make me an awful role and I’d hate Gad forever for it (not really, but still would have my :mad: face for now)

5. What sucks the most to me is that this is a useless role until I give a message of someone who flips wolf to know which I am.

6. I will target whoever everyone thinks I should target tonight. I wish to target a townie is my only condition, as scum can manipulate this information.

7. I think until further notice, we should ignore the Gnarly/Me/Naf messages, as clearly there’s something wrong here. Idk if NAF is scum or not, but with these messages clearly having some form of false information basing our decisions around them will lead to mislynches.

8. At some point, we will be able to determine which role I am. If it’s indeed Insane then my role is still useful. If I’m paranoid, we’ll have to ignore my message s and I’ll have to play it as if I’m vanilla.

9. I also know the “false messages” role was scum in the original mystery mash, so I’m kinda pissed I’ve got it as a villager. But please focus on what I’ve done so far this game rather than that piece of information: I’ve - correctly - cleared Dancecat for her logical thought process in her interaction with Giraffe, I’ve tried to get people off of Krayz d1 multiple times citing his “come at me bro” style of play was in tune with his villager game while his scum game was more of a commentator style, I’ve also lynched Blaster when there were plenty of other close wagons and stayed on him when the Inner wagon exploded.

I’m here for the next 30 minutes before my final class of the evening. Please ask me to clarify anything that you need before I go, and when I return tonight I will delve into the Blaster/Inner wagon analysis I started with the colored vote count.

[Normal_Phase]

Bah, I should try to read more than 1 in 3 posts; I just noticed one saying that pwnsall was town (presumably another message). Did that one come with role attached, or did either of the
others?

[Episkey]

To continue:

I believe gnarly must be a mason townie now, along with TexCat.

[Drain_Bead]

Episkey, do you believe your targeting of Jan sent the message about her to Ben?

[Episkey]

@Drain_Bead

Episkey, do you believe your targeting of Jan sent the message about her to Ben?

Did anyone get a message on Pizza guy today? If so maybe that’s whats going on an I’m wrong.

[lilflower]

@Normal_Phase

Bah, I should try to read more than 1 in 3 posts; I just noticed one saying that pwnsall was town (presumably another message). Did that one come with role attached, or did either of the
others?

**Giraffe **(post 2760) says he got a message that **pwnsall **was town (no role)
**pizza **(post 2980) says he got messages that **NAF **and **Episkey **were wolves (no roles either)
**PCM **(post 2914) claims that he got a message that he is the apothecary but thinks it’s really **Ed **who is the apothecary (not sure how that works). **PCM **also claims that he got a result on Night 1 that indicates a role (but I don’t believe we have the details on that one)

[lilflower]

@lilflower

**Giraffe **(post 2760) says he got a message that **pwnsall **was town (no role)
**pizza **(post 2980) says he got messages that **NAF **and **Episkey **were wolves (no roles either)
**PCM **(post 2914) claims that he got a message that he is the apothecary but thinks it’s really **Ed **who is the apothecary (not sure how that works). **PCM **also claims that he got a result on Night 1 that indicates a role (but I don’t believe we have the details on that one)

NETA: **PCM **also talks about his role message in post 2878.