Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

[lilflower]

I think I need a visio diagram of all of this!

Damn this flood control! Now my witty remark has lost all of its cache.

[Episkey]

I’ve got to run. While I’m gone, can someone recap the following info:

All messages claimed yesterday and today (Claimer, Player Received, Role)
so I can make a chart of this?

[pwnsall]

your role seems more like a wolf role which spreads chaos, but it could be a villager role too

i would assume from what you said you are responsible for the naf wolf leak and not the one on yourself

[lilflower]

@lilflower

NETA: **PCM **also talks about his role message in post 2878.

NNETA: Actually **PCM **said that his Night 1 result indicated a role (presumably his), not that he got a message about a role.

[Scuba_Ben]

@lilflower

I still really don’t like Scuba Ben’s voting record from yesterDay. He seems way more concerned about saving himself than actually voting for scum.

Why do you consider self preservation a bad thing?

Here he votes for Silver Jan even though he received a message that she was town. Plus, he blames me for it and justifies it by saying he hopes he got a false message.

By the time we got to that point, we knew something was unreliable about the whispered messages. And as I clearly stated, you were the one pushing me at that point, hence me holding my nose and voting in self preservation.

@Idle Thoughts: IIRC, in SS Incorrigible the game setup explicitly said four Scum. It was essential to the vote mechanic.

I concur with Drain Bead’s estimate. It seems that I was the random lucky winner of Episkey’s peek at Jan. Then Pizza was the random lucky winner of Episkey’s peek at Pizza. The RNG hates us all.

Also possible: N1, Episkey acted on Jan, who randomly got a peek at gnarlycharlie. N2, Episkey acted on PizzaGuy, who randomly got a peek at emself. The RNG still hates us all. FINGER OF LOATHING AT GADARENE.

Without knowing everything, both outcomes are certainly doable. So @Episkey: If you survive the Night, please consider posting who you acted upon. Let’s see who if anybody got messages about that person. And so far, we still don’t know if you cause accurate (sane), inaccurate (insane), or gastard (paranoid) results. In fact, it’s still not certain you caused these results.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Scuba_Ben

I’m also getting an anti-Town feel on ATPG, from his oft-stated determination to keep poisoning people, or alternately keep poisoning brewha until e’s very dead.

Tee hee

1. As others have mentioned, I have to target someone.
2. Being anti town and poisoning brewha over and over, so the apothecary can cure him over and over, is a ridiculous plan for a scumbag.
3. I poisoned Mahaloth. What happens if brewha flips non-town?

Tee hee

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Episkey

Also, this pretty much insta vote is atrocious and scummy as hell.

Toldja.

If you read all my posts, Episkey, you’ll see I have more than just that on Astral, and more than just “I don’t trust” on these lousy investigation results.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@lilflower

The other thing that I want to add (which I think someone else has also said), you are a little demanding for someone who isn’t yet confirmed.

Personally, I would have waited until I was more or less confirmed town before I put on my bossy pants.

I have no idea if I’ll ever be confirmed town while I’m still alive.

Frankly, I can’t wait to play the game until people realize I’m town. I have work to do.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wow I got caught up. Sad I have to go to work now.

No more votes on Astral and Brewha? Disappoint.

[Normal_Phase]

Zeriel:

Post 21:

What, a guy makes a sensible but obvious post and you’re thinking this is a sign of anything other than literacy and basic logic abilities?

Good enough to break the ice, anyway.

Vote MykBot

In reference to Mykbot’s soft clear of Lightfoot. I have no issue with this in itself.

Post 38:

Around here, we have a lot of analytical players, so giving generally good advice isn’t much of a tell one way or the other. (I figured what soft-clear meant ) It wouldn’t be the first nor the last time we’ve had a scum do that–hell, I know of more than one player who’s claimed to have not read their PM at all until middle-late Day One or Day Two, specifically so they can play convincingly as pro-town.

Response to mykbot.

Post 42:

Eh, I’m an early and often kind of guy. There’s no penalty to changing votes, and until the first one is out there, there’s no real incentive for anyone to say anything useful.

Giraffe doesn’t get the votes on Mykbot. Again the response is fine in itself, but the “often” doesn’t really materialize.

Post 373:

Where are you seeing that Giraffe backed down? As far as the last vote count, his vote is still in force. Or do you mean something other than “unvoted” for “backed off a vote”?

This is after peeker has gotten some heat from Giraffe at least (not sure when the rest of the bandwagon came in) for being more subdued and sensible than usual. Zeriel questioning peeker’s vote on Giraffe. A little bit later he notes that he had the order of events wrong and pursues it no further.

Post 375:

Hell, I’m turning into peeker with the multiposting.

LightFoot, I note you cheerfully spoiler the part of my post where I said “Figuring out when this is a wise decision is literally impossible on Day One in a closed game” and other caveats that made it clear I didn’t think it was a good idea, just that it wasn’t scummy in all cases. All while nitpicking what’s clearly an abstract argument as though it were Fermat’s Last Theorem. Smells like smoke to me, and where there’s smoke there’s…

unvote Mykbot
vote LightFoot

Lightfoot’s post, which was a followup to her saying something about an earlier strategy post of Zeriel’s pinged her.

This is so bafflingly aggressive. I have no idea why you voted Lightfoot for this. What about her response to you was scummy? Spoilering caveats to your argument doesn’t seem nearly enough. And it’s your only (serious) vote for the entire Day, a quasi-OMGUS for dubious reasons.

Post 403:

I am staying so far away from betting on peek’s behavior that I’ve almost wrapped around to betting on it.

Along with the question already quoted and a snippet about the Krayz wagon below, the closest you come to engaging with any of the day’s main bandwagons. Which is basically to lampshade that you are not engaging.

Post 869:

Closing thoughts for the day:

• I don’t like the Krayz wagon, but I don’t like Krayz’s style either.
• My vote is mine, and there is value (IMMENSE value) in seeing who voluntarily changes votes when. I’ve caught more than one scum through vote timing analysis.
• Putting another player in the game on ignore is poor fucking form.
• This is not currently relevant, but I reiterate that I reserve the right to vote for players who are acting against the best interests of town. Anti-Town = Pro-Scum. That includes things like lynching liars, disruptive play, and the like.

And I reiterate, if I’m seer, then NAF is townie.

The second point must have been a response to something, but I can’t find what. I hate the last point, and in your case Zeriel, I do consider it a scum tell if you act on it disproportionately to looking for scum as such. You’re right on the border with your second vote on Silver Jan, see below.

@Zeriel

Also, by vote analysis of when Mahaloth entered the voting,
vote SilverJan

By that same analysis, if Silver flips scum, peeker is more likely town.

@Zeriel

I think I’ll clarify my very minimal vote post earlier in the day, in the hope of getting some traction from people who agree with my case.

First of all, for you 2+2 folks, I’m Zeriel, and I find scum with vote timing analysis (Hi, Zeriel!). Fortunately, a scum died early in the game, which means I can start plying my trade sooner than is typical.

So we know **Mahaloth **is scum, and we know **Krayz **was town, and we know nothing about **Texcat **or peekercpa. That sums up our late-day lynch prospects.

Starting around post 500, we don’t have any real momentum on anyone in the game. **peeker **and **Krayz **have three votes, **Texcat **has two votes, lots of others have one.

Then Silver Jan gets a vote from Dancecat, bringing her to two. WITHIN AN HOUR, our only known scum bitches about how hard it is to keep up with the game and pops a unsupported vote on **Krayz **to put him in a comfortable lead.

Based on this, I think Silver Jan is provisionally more likely to be scum. peeker is provisionally more likely to be town. Giraffe, Timelady, TexCat, and Dancecat (the folks with two votes at that time) are some small amount leaning town.

None of this makes any sense to me. First, Mahaloth tends to make weakish votes, as town or scum. I think you’ve played with him enough to know that. To assume that his vote on Krazy necessarily had anythign to do with anyone else in the voting (especially this early in teh game) is putting the cart before the horse. Same as sanga’s analysis of the Krayz wagon, really, only differently presented. You’re both going for presumed motive first, suspicion second; rather than operating out of suspicion first, which I think is very much more the typical townie way of doing things.

Second, while the timing – if you accept your premises in the first place – looks worse for Silver Jan than for any of the rest, none of the rest are in any way warranted as leaning town. Especially peeker, who actually had more votes than the rest and was passed over by Mahaloth in favor of Krayz. How on earth does he look comparatively townie, even if you accept the provision that Mahaloth was trying to save Jan? Except he was a townie, whose bandwagon was horrible, whom you first questioned and then dropped like a hot potato once your mistaken impression of the vote order was questioned?

You’re voting on a very automatic, non-behavior-related basis here; and you’re calling people provisionally townie who don’t deserve it by your own standards. This all looks very easy, Zeriel.

@Zeriel

Because that’s what the mod said to do, in the very first post:

Every time. “Target”. “[T]he same player”. Every single reference to the night action target is singular.

VERY comfortable with my vote on you, after that little attempted smudge.

Bah. Post-hoc justification for a weak vote.

@Zeriel

Yes, I am. I have no reason, as yet, to trust these mysterious messages floating around that are claimed to not relate to the recipient’s night action.

@Zeriel

This may be the most anti-town post I’ve seen in a long time.

“I have a magic bag, and I know the identity of someone who I should make a case against, but I’m not going to say anything, and maybe I’ll get nightkilled instead of mislynched.”

This is about Silver Jan’s initial refusal to give gnarly’s name, and I don’t have a good enough grasp of what went on there to comment all that much. However, I would like to know what you think Jan’s motive for refusing was, if she is scum. “It’s anti-town not to give the name” isn’t enough.

@Zeriel

I’m sticking with my SilverJan vote because her being scum tracks with my analysis in addition to all the kerfluffle.

I don’t remember where this came in relation to the Blaster and Inner bandwagons.

@Zeriel

Jeez, how many people in this thread are from PA? I felt that damn earthquake in State College.

This, however, was right after end of day. Yes I know that’s not really a scum tell. Sue me.

@Zeriel

Those are some shitty night results.

None of them necessarily change my stance from yesterday:

**vote SilverJan

Further vote analysis will occur when I get back home and spend several hours updating my timing spreadsheet.

The one that got me looking in the first place. I really want to hear some reasoning on what Jan’s motivations as scum are for producing the gnarlycharlie message at all, if scum, knowing it would be wrong. Do that even in retrospect and you at least get me to give a closer look at her as well.

@Zeriel

I may not even need to research this vote more.

Yes you do.

@Zeriel

Roughly speaking, I posted an analysis of the timing of votes in the Day One lynch. Mahaloth’s few posts came in a flurry with an unsupported vote on Krayz right as Silver Jan started drawing attention, and as I’ve said, my scumfinding method relies on vote timing of known scum.

I am still working on integrating Day Two and BLAM’s scumminess into my spreadsheet. This game is retardedly fast and it makes it difficult to keep up.

I look forward to seeing what you come up with.

[color=blue]vote: Zeriel

for reminding me of yourself as scum.

[Normal_Phase]

Next up: Mr Special Ed! I want to see what NAF is going on about. Sorry Pizza, you’ll have to wait. But I voted brewha yesterday if that makes you feel any better.

[lilflower]

I’m trying to piece things together here. I think this is everything we know so far. I tried to link targets and results where I could (although I know we may not know enough to directly attribute one to the other just yet). Also, I just put some of my thoughts in here and in no way am I asking anyone to claim or reveal anything. I’m just thinking that this might help some of us figure out our roles (in our heads!).

Night 0
AskthePizzaGuy targets lilflower
NAF targets peeker
Normal Phase targets Drain Bead
Mykbot/DuckburgDK targets himself

bufftabby got no result (did not reveal target)
AskthePizzaGuy gets message that he was creeping around my bed

Night 1
Ed targets Scuba Ben
Drain Bead targets Scuba Ben
Scuba Ben gets two targets on Night 2
Scuba Ben gets message that Jan is villager

AskthePizzaGuy targets Mahaloth
Mahaloth is poisoned and shot

Scathach targets Dancecat
Idle gets message that Dancecat is villager

Scuba Ben targets gnarlycharlie
gnarlycharlie feels protected

Episkey targets Jan
Silver Jan gets message that gnarlycharlie is wolf

gnarlycharlie targets Texcat
gnarlycharlie and Texcat discover they are village masons

BlasterMaster targets Giraffe
Giraffe gets message that BlasterMaster is villager

Weedy gets message that Texcat is Villager and mason [Could he be an eavesdropper? It might depend on the target.]

bufftabby got no result (did not reveal target)
NAF feels protected
Idle feels safe
septimus enjoyed kindness
Ed got no result

Night 2
AskthePizzaGuy targets brewha
brewha is poisoned

Idle targets Jan

Scathach targets Ed

?? (power booster/doubler) targets NAF [I think whoever targeted both Scuba and NAF is our doubler]
NAF gets two targets on Night 3

bufftabby targets herself
bufftabby felt a warm glow

Episkey targets AskthePizzaGuy

Idle is blocked
AskthePizzaGuy gets message that NAF is a wolf
AskthePizzaGuy gets message that Episkey is a wolf
PCM gets a message that he is the apothecary [but doesn’t believe it]

[NAF1138]

@Normal_Phase

Next up: Mr Special Ed! I want to see what NAF is going on about. Sorry Pizza, you’ll have to wait. But I voted brewha yesterday if that makes you feel any better.

Good. Let me know.

[Drain_Bead]

Ben, I think you’re onto something with option 2 there. Picture a role that gives the target wrong information about a random player. Because that’s the common denominator here–Jan got a Scum result on a Mason, and pizza got…well, either one could have come from Episkey, I guess. To me, this role sounds more like Scum than Town. I dunno. The only thing that will clear it up is b]Episkey** dying. Ugh. If he dies and is Scum, great–we’ve cleared Jan. If he dies and is Town, then pizza got a random result for Episkey from Episkey, and I’m not sure we necessarily know anything about the other message he got (although I’d lean toward it being true). Doesn’t seem at all worth lynching Episkey right now–seems like we need more data points before we do anything to resolve any of this.

[brewha]

@lilflower

This response isn’t really related to this post but I’m posting as I catch up and seeing this reminded me that I wanted to ask you something.

This is your post 2159 from Day 2:
You vote Jan because “I guess the only way we’re going to sort this mess is to lynch one of the parties and go from there based on role and alignment; So, the only way to know for sure is to start lynching cops, I guess. I just don’t like that option."

You say you don’t like this option but yet you vote for her. Why?

I splained that part after I conceded it was a bad vote. My rationale was that if Silver Jan was a cop, there was likely a 50% chance that any info we got from her would be wrong. We would find out her full role and alignment with her lynch - which should lead us to a wolf or wolves.

But, the reason it was a bad vote was that I didn’t vote for her because I was convinced she was town - I voted as a way to get info. That was a bad vote - which is why I retracted it.

[brewha]

NETA:
was = wasn’t

I need to preview!

[lilflower]

@Scuba_Ben

Why do you consider self preservation a bad thing?

By the time we got to that point, we knew something was unreliable about the whispered messages. And as I clearly stated, you were the one pushing me at that point, hence me holding my nose and voting in self preservation.

It seems to me that only scum need make self-preservation votes because they have a much smaller team and each death is harsh on them. You should vote for who you think is scummy. If you end up the lynch leader, it’s because lots of players think you are scummy. In my mind, voting just to save yourself is only dragging out the discussion of whether or not your are scum for yet another Day.

And here again, you keep blaming me for your vote. You need to be accountable for your own vote. I am not making you do anything.

[brewha]

Which makes no sense either.

was town

should be

wasn’t town.

[lilflower]

@Askthepizzaguy

Tee hee

1. As others have mentioned, I have to target someone.
2. Being anti town and poisoning brewha over and over, so the apothecary can cure him over and over, is a ridiculous plan for a scumbag.
3. I poisoned Mahaloth. What happens if brewha flips non-town?

Tee hee

You do realize that you cannot poison the same person more than once, right?

[Scuba_Ben]

@lilflower

It seems to me that only scum need make self-preservation votes because they have a much smaller team and each death is harsh on them. You should vote for who you think is scummy. If you end up the lynch leader, it’s because lots of players think you are scummy. In my mind, voting just to save yourself is only dragging out the discussion of whether or not your are scum for yet another Day.

And here again, you keep blaming me for your vote. You need to be accountable for your own vote. I am not making you do anything.

I disagree with you about self-preservation votes. I know I’m Town, so I consider it better for Town for me to survive than for me to lie.