Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Scuba_Ben

A single Watcher cannot watch you every Night. RTFOP, everybody must change targets every Night.

I’ll take a 50% chance of catching scum over zero.

I still endorse the watcher plan.

If someone were all that sentimental over the death of a poisoner who has yet to actually kill any scum (lucky shot on Mahaloth didn’t kill him, the bullet did, Blaster Master was number 2 suspect last round, not number 1) then I SUPPOSE it’s worthwhile to alternate the watcher and the doctor.

Watcher tonight, doctor tomorrow.

If you gave a damn about a poisoner. Big if.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Scuba_Ben

This is a good move for a potential Apothecary, regardless of alignment. It would clear up their role.

I know. I hate it. And if Brewha is scum I will have *nearly *had something positive to report, alas not.

[Normal_Phase]

My husband is freaking me out about hurricanes. I don’t want to think about hurricanes. Best wishes to everyone else who Irene is eyeing.

Pizza, is your argument to lynch brewha today essentially (and only) that the Apothecary will probably heal him regardless of the alignment of either one? Is there even reason to believe the Apothecary would know who he is? I’m seen a lot of Apothecary related talk but haven’t absorbed much of it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Normal_Phase

My husband is freaking me out about hurricanes. I don’t want to think about hurricanes. Best wishes to everyone else who Irene is eyeing.

Pizza, is your argument to lynch brewha today essentially (and only) that the Apothecary will probably heal him regardless of the alignment of either one? Is there even reason to believe the Apothecary would know who he is? I’m seen a lot of Apothecary related talk but haven’t absorbed much of it.

Lynch brewha today if he’s scum, ignore me altogether if he’s townie.

Sorry I am not sure which is the correct action. I was hoping that I could just do my poisoner thing and let the results of my efforts stand on my record, without having to get the lynch involved. It could force the scums to roleblock me at least.

The apothecary should have people feeling healthy every night. They should be able to deduce who they are by now, for game balance reasons. An apothecary who has no idea they can cure poison is going to be almost entirely useless. Knowing they make people feel “healthy” is at least a clue.

[Normal_Phase]

You aimed at Maha; I think that counts for about as much as needs to be counted for at this point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Normal_Phase

You aimed at Maha; I think that counts for about as much as needs to be counted for at this point.

You’d think but the speculation I’m scum continues. As long as it doesn’t lead to a damnfool lynch I’m fine with it.

[Scuba_Ben]

@Askthepizzaguy

3. If I am forced to poison every night, and the apothecary may not always be with us, then I am a forced vigilante. As such, I will have to poison someone. I’d rather be enough of a threat with my poison that it attracts murders, thereby ending my poisoning and relieving the townies of worry that they’ll be poisoned next.

Every vig-type role in this game is a forced vigilante. You being a forced delayed-kill vig doesn’t make you any more special than the apparent back-up vig or the other Night killer.

And we have no independent assertions yet whether you, the backup vig, or the other killer are Town, Wolf, or PFK. Recall that Gad said in the OP that third parties might be present. So it seems reasonable to allow the possibility of a Serial Killer. Or even a Poisoner with a private win condition. I’ll have to think over that last one.

Aside to the other-boarders. “PFK” is “plays for keeps,” a third party with a win-stealing victory condition. I’m curious what your term is for such a role.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I hate to be the one to argue my own defense here as it’s all WIFOM. It would be more trustworthy if it came from someone else.

1. I am not scum because I absolutely would not target my own partner N1 if I don’t know what my power is. Reasons:

A) I could accidentally block, kill, or otherwise harm my teammate
B) Killing my own teammate on N1 still wouldn’t give me enough pro-town cred to be worth it. Eventually I’d be scanned, blocked, tracked, etc, or just plain suspected that it was a gambit to make myself look townie.
C) People would wonder why I was never being murdered after I outed myself as the one who killed my own teammate
D) I would eventually have to out myself as the one who killed a mafioso in order to avoid a lynch at some point, and then, the speculation as to why I’m not dead yet would continue from then onward.

In short, too high a risk, not enough of a gain, and almost invariably leads to my own death later on in the game. Testing one’s power is the prudent move. If I have a nonlethal power I can test it on my teammate and see if I am a blocker. If I can’t kill or block, then I may be a scum doctor and if so, THAT is when I would continue to target my mates.’
2) I would not out myself this early as Play-For-Keeps (Serial Killer) because if I kill a bunch of townies, the townies will know who to blame and who to lynch. I also invite investigations by the true cop, and we had at least one of those. Being revealed as PFK means I lose the game.

If I kill a bunch of scumbags, same deal. The scums will want me dead. PFK reveal is suicide no matter how good or badly I play from then onward, unless I explicitly align myself with the mafia as a temporary alliance, but such alliances always favor the mafia as they have more partners and can risk betraying the alliance, a PFK cannot because they only have one life to lose. And if I am obviously allied with the mafia, town murders me. I have to try to find the scum, and opening up my poisoning for a democratic vote means I’d have to follow through and hit a scum. The risk is huge that I’d piss off the mafia.

3. Even neutral survivor roles have no incentive to do what I’ve done, as it still pisses off the mafia and makes death more likely.

As such, it would be *indisputably *stupid for me to have done this move as anything but a townie role.

I am not a stupid player, I hope. I might pick the wrong suspects sometimes to my own great embarassment, but I’m not actually dumb.

[lilflower]

@Episkey

When pwns voted it was 8-7 Blaster by my calculation, making it 9-7. Scum had the chance to tie it up and I believe pwns would have taken it if he was scum.

Again though, thats why I used “temp clear” rather than “lock clear”. At a later date we need to reevaluate with the new info, but temp clearing people allows us to POE the lynch for the next few days with a higher % of wolves in the pool than without the temp clears.

At least thats my opinion.

@Episkey

**Vote Lilflower **

I don’t understand. I know that I did first create the tie (inadvertently, but whether you believe that is neither here nor there) but then I unvoted expressly to avoid a tie. Given that reasoning, why am I still scummy even though my unvote broke the tie?

[NAF1138]

@lilflower

I don’t understand. I know that I did first create the tie (inadvertently, but whether you believe that is neither here nor there) but then I unvoted expressly to avoid a tie. Given that reasoning, why am I still scummy even though my unvote broke the tie?

Quality question lilflower.

I am digesting the last bit of the thread. I like my vote where it is and nothing new has happened to add to what I have already said toDay. Plus I am distracted playing amature art critic over on GBB (where lilflower voted against Michelangelo:dubious:).

I am ready for the Day to end and for us to get some more information. Never thought I would say that, but the lack of answers is driving me batty.

[Askthepizzaguy]

My time will be very limited in the next 2 days. I have a 12 hour shift tonight followed by another shift tomorrow, plus sleep, means I won’t be able to contribute much more this round, apologies.

As such, I would like suggestions on who to poison if the lead lynch flips scum, and who to poison if the lead lynch flips townie. Specific names plus links to the cases on them will help me decide; if I agree with a case it’s more likely I will pick that one, if several townies agree on the case that means I’ll also be more likely to follow it because it means that I will be removing a true suspect for you.

[lilflower]

@NAF1138

Plus I am distracted playing amature art critic over on GBB (where lilflower voted against Michelangelo:dubious:).

I’m having a hard time distancing my religious views from the actual artistic value of the works so I know my votes are probably bad. I’ll be over soon to discuss.

[Scuba_Ben]

PizzaGuy in 3408 does make a good case that e’s Town. I have to acknowledge that a PFK revealing emself this early would have to survive many Days to win. OTTOMH, this game could very easily see Day 10 and not be at Lynch/Lose.

So assuming e’s the poisoner, given e targeted Scum on N1 and revealed emself this early, I’ll allow that PizzaGuy is more likely Town than not. Can anybody find significant issues with this logic?
Therefore, my list of Likely Townies (Or At Least Likely Not Scum) is
AskThePizzaGuy
Drain Bead
Giraffe

25 to go…

By the same reasoning as PizzaGuy and Giraffe, if a watcher knows who Mahaloth targeted on N1 another name can go on my list. Your lists of course will vary.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Scuba_Ben

Can anybody find significant issues with this logic?

Yes. I may be arguing I’m not scum because I did a boneheaded move, and am now using that boneheaded move as cover to survive longer. It’s the old “I’m not scum because scum wouldn’t do this unless they were stupid” argument. What if I *was *stupid or let my high-risk play encourage me to do something I know isn’t sound?
Counter: Scumbags seem to have multiple murders already. Poisoner too? And indeed, that means if I am scum my primary power is poisoning which is delayed murder, and my secondary power is straight up murder, by being the one who murders if I chose to. That doesn’t quite feel balanced or logical.

[gnarlycharlie]

first of all,to those in the path of Irene, be safe.

Scuba, i’m not sure Irene would survive Pizza.
for those who said they know their roles, did you infer them or did the mod tell you? please elaborate.

[Suburban_Plankton]

@Scuba_Ben

PizzaGuy in 3408 does make a good case that e’s Town. I have to acknowledge that a PFK revealing emself this early would have to survive many Days to win. OTTOMH, this game could very easily see Day 10 and not be at Lynch/Lose.

So assuming e’s the poisoner, given e targeted Scum on N1 and revealed emself this early, I’ll allow that PizzaGuy is more likely Town than not. Can anybody find significant issues with this logic?

Assuming he is the poisoner and that he did target Mahaloth, then it was either a very stupid or a very risky/ballsy move for Scum to make. I don’t think Pizza would have made a very stupid move, but I’m not certain he wouldn’t take a big risk.

I’d say it’s more likely than not he is Town, but it wouldn’t be the shocker of the century if he were to flip Scum.

[Suburban_Plankton]

@J.D

hey guys, spent the day working and playing a POG Game, been skimming a few posts when I have the chance.

I have had two night actions, both with no result, however, my one last night was re-directed.

To clarify:

You received PMs informing you that your action was successful, but there was no apparent result? Or you received no response from the Mods at all?

How do you know that your action last Night was redirected?

[Suburban_Plankton]

@sangaman

Re: The embarassment/frustration thing, you may not have been embarrassed if you were put in my situation, but I was. I realized that my failure to read the rules completely had, in one post, made at least half the thread want to lynch me. I did not notice my mistake until several hours after it had happened, and by then plenty of people had already seemed to make up their minds. I just couldn’t deal with addressing it at that moment so I put it off until later in the night. I feel like I’ve said all that I can about what happened and I don’t want to keep beating a dead horse, but I also don’t want to just give up on defending myself so I’ll answer more questions about it if I have to.

In regards to your second paragraph, please allow me again to explain why I strongly think lynching brewha right now is a bad idea.

First of all, I’ll admit that I’ve never played with poison for and I can’t be 100% sure players die from poison. In spite of that, I think it is extremely likely that someone who is poisoned will eventually die from it if they are not healed in this or any other WW game. Otherwise, it is a meaningless aspect of the game and the poisoners/healers serve no real purpose. Remember, Gad said that everyone here gets a night ability and that all our abilities do something. I strongly believe it would be bad game design to have poison be harmless and I don’t think that is how Gad set up this game.

So from here on out I will assume that poison will eventually kill you. I will also assume that poison will kill you within 2 or 3 days tops (or else all poisonings that occur mid or late game would also be meaningless). Since we are still pretty early in the game, I think it is quite safe to assume that Brewha will always die from poison before the game can end unless he is healed.

As I’ve said before, IF he is healed by a different player at night while the consensus is still that he’s a wolf, he can be lynched then. If we find out who targeted him on the night he was healed, we can do even better and identify the wolf healer and lynch him too. The only situation where this wouldn’t apply is if Brewha himself is a healer. I have said that I think a wolf healer role is unlikely (that’s the point I was trying to make when I assumed there 9 wolves to start the game), but it’s possible and if Brewha is healed it means there likely is one.

Here is a somewhat simple example where killing the poisoned player who is a known wolf but will die of poison before the game ends is bad for the village (I am not saying brewha is a confirmed wolf, this is just an example).

Suppose there are 3 seer-cleared villagers, 1 poisoned wolf, and 2 uncleared players, one of whom is a wolf. If the villagers lynch the known wolf first, the remaining wolf will kill a cleared villager and the next day there will be 2 clear villagers and 2 uncleared players, 1 of whom is a wolf. The uncleared players will vote for each other and the cleared villagers will have to pick one of them to lynch. If they pick wrong, the wolves reach parity and win the game.

Now go back to 3 seer-cleared villagers, 1 poisoned wolf, and 2 uncleared players again. This time, the villagers decide to lynch one of the uncleared players, and the wolf dies at night from poison. If the village guessed right and lynched the last wolf, they win right away. If they lynched a villager, they will have 2 clear villagers and 1 uncleared player who by process of elimination must be the wolf. The clear villagers both vote for the wolf and the village wins. In this instance, the village turned the game into a lock by not lynching the known wolf.

In the prior instance, the village “wasted” their first lynch by not resolving the uncleared players. Although they could be guaranteed to lynch a wolf on the first night, they give themselves the best chance to win the game by lynching one of the uncleared players instead. This is true even when they lynch a villager.

If the above example is not clear, please let me know which part I need to explain in more detail.

My argument not to lynch Brewha has nothing to do with my view on Brewha himself. Whether I think he is 100% wolf or 100% villager, I still think it is a mistake to lynch him while he’s poisoned when we can reasonably expect the poison to kill him on its own.

I will also point out that, if both Brewha and I are wolves, I wouldn’t be doing myself any favors by defending Brewha here. Either he is lynched and flips wolf which makes me look bad, or he dies at night and flips wolf which also makes me look bad. I don’t expect to be given credit for defending him if he flips villager, and likewise I don’t think I deserve blame if he flips wolf. My argument is strictly based on game theory.

sangaman,

You’ve spend a great deal of your time Today defending your ‘slip’ ad telling us why we should not lynch you. You’ve spent pretty much all of the rest of it explaining why we should not lynch brewha. What you haven’t done is tell us who we should lynch. You’ve given us no insight on who you suspect the Wolves are, or indeed who you suspect the Villagers are.

If you are a Villager, you have an ever-shortening window of time left to help out the Town by providing some analysis on the game, so that we have some useful information once you’re gone. I’d suggest that you use it.

[Idle_Thoughts]

@Silver_Jan

Yes I did and I said that if I was a roleblocker then surely I would have got a result from my night action.

And ED has ALREADY SAID (and I even quoted the post to you) That HE GOT NO RESULT TOO, yet his action DID wind up going through.
So even if you didn’t get any result, that doesn’t mean your action didn’t work. This has been said to you three times already. : p

[brewha]

I do see how you could interpret my post as saying that you thought Peeker was scum. So, disregard.

@Askthepizzaguy

Yes. I may be arguing I’m not scum because I did a boneheaded move, and am now using that boneheaded move as cover to survive longer. It’s the old “I’m not scum because scum wouldn’t do this unless they were stupid” argument. What if I *was *stupid or let my high-risk play encourage me to do something I know isn’t sound?
Counter: Scumbags seem to have multiple murders already. Poisoner too? And indeed, that means if I am scum my primary power is poisoning which is delayed murder, and my secondary power is straight up murder, by being the one who murders if I chose to. That doesn’t quite feel balanced or logical.

So, you say that scum have multiple murders - but you are saying that one of the murderous roles can’t be poisoner? We were promised mass carnage in this game - I don’t see how claiming that scum have alot of murders precludes you from having a killing role and being scum.
Also, here’s a theory. You didn’t target Mahaloth N1. You targeted a redirector who had Mahaloth as a target. You realize this after poisoning me and claim that you targeted mahaloth to gain town cred.