OK, the Point Blank Political poll is up on 538. They’re unrated. 2/13-15, 256 LV.
A third Nevada poll from the past week is up at 538 (man, this is a flood of polling by Nevada standards), this one from B/C-rated Data for Progress (2/12-15, 766 LV):
Sanders 35
Warren 16
Buttigieg 15
Biden 14
Steyer 10
Klobuchar 9
Gabbard 2
It says right in their title: “Among The Top Political Consulting Firms”
TOP. MEN.
What is the point of Nevada, Iowa and NH anyway? Huge investments in ground games. Grass roots support. Debate after townhall. Night show appearances. But did anybody get any sticky results? No. And Bloomberg drops in and fucks up all the poll standings for everyone. Fuck it. Let’s see what happens on Super Tuesday. I’ll be watching Netflix until then.
Well, Bernie has a lot of support from the top.
Who said bipartisanship is dead?
You know, if Trump fires Pence, makes Sander VP, and puts him in charge of replacing ObamaCare, the entire country will unite as MAGA-Bros.
This will likely impact the caucus: Bloomberg makes debate stage, facing Dem rivals for 1st time
I agree. I’m especially done with these caucuses. Because I think they’ve always been incredibly loose and inaccurate, nothing more than a rough head count. But no one every questioned the results. Until the first time someone tried to apply some metrics that included a way to test the results. And it all fell apart because it had never worked.
I expect Nevada to be a similar clusterfuck, if not worse.
If the latest polls from 538 are to believed it looks like a distinct possibility that Sanders will be the only one above the 15% viability threshold. Unless someone has a concentrated pocket of support in a district Sanders may walk away with all of the delegate or Biden and Warren may get one or two.
At this point I don’t know what to believe. The only thing that will probably be good in NV is that there will likely be a lot of areas with only one or two viable candidates, so that should help with the counting. Two non viables can’t make a viable.
I think Biden will not get as much support as hoped or projected. I think Buttigieg will get more support than is expected or projected.
At this point I don’t know what to believe. The only thing that will probably be good in NV is that there will likely be a lot of areas with only one or two viable candidates, so that should help with the counting. Two non viables can’t make a viable.
There are a few things you need to keep in mind.
First, if a precinct splits, say, 30% for Sanders, 15% for Biden, and everybody else under 15%, then the 55% that didn’t vote for either one can switch to one of those two. If most of them go to Biden, it could end up being a 50-50 split in that precinct.
Second, I said “can” switch. If a voter’s candidate does not get 15% in the first round of voting, they can choose to leave the caucus rather than vote for someone else.
Third - there is an exception to this; if, say, Sanders gets 30% and nobody else gets 15%, then there is no second round of voting; while Sanders is the only one with votes there, nobody who didn’t vote for him can change their mind.
[QUOTE=Nevada 2020 Democratic National Convention Delegate Selection Plan, Rule III.A.12]
Upon the conclusion of the announcement of results from the initial alignment, if and only if, there are any non-viable preference groups, the eligible caucus attendees in those groups will have up to another fifteen (15) minutes to realign with a viable group.
[/QUOTE]
Being able, or not able, to switch, is important, as Nevada awards its delegates to the national convention based on the “head count” at the caucuses. In effect, it is a primary with (usually) a two-step preferential vote.
I have a feeling that, if there are districts where Sanders is the only one with at least 15%, there will be different interpretations as to counting how many people actually voted for him.
“100 people showed up, and 30 voted for Sanders, while nobody else got at least 15, so Bernie is credited with all 100 votes.”
“No, he only gets 30 votes, since there was no second round.”
“It is implied that, since he was the only candidate, everybody would now vote for him.”
“No, because the other 70 could also go home and not be counted.”
This is what I was thinking when I said Sanders may get all of the delegates.
Caucuses are tomorrow. When do y’all think we may have full results?
Here’s a bit of trivia: there will be no coin tosses in case of a tie when determining delegates to the county conventions. Instead, in true Las Vegas fashion, all ties will be broken by drawing from a deck of cards; high card wins, with ties broken by the order of suits as used in bridge (i.e. spades, then hearts, then diamonds, then clubs).
If you mean head counts, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re done by tomorrow night. Supposedly, head counts are what will be used to determine national convention delegates. The only problem might be, integrating the early votes into the total.
have they learned basic counting unlike Iowa? Maybe they can hire 6th graders to count.
In Iowa, each precinct had to determine the number of county convention delegates each candidate got in that precinct, then convert those to “state delegate equivalents.” This is not supposed to be the case in Nevada.
Nevada also switched out the bad app used in Iowa for a simple i-pad spreadsheet setup.
Don’t worry, they have a 143 slide instruction manual for them.
Er, what’s that? “Rules change,” you say? “National convention delegates are now based on county convention delegate counts,” is it?
Here’s what the rule was in June:
“The national convention delegates elected…shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that district by each preference at the first determining step.”
Here’s what it is now:
“The national convention delegates elected…shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the county convention delegates won in that district by each preference at the first determining step.”
I guess I wasn’t alone in noticing that there could be a problem with only one candidate being viable at a precinct, and it is treated as if nobody else showed up.
Betting markets right now are overwhelmingly betting on a Sanders win of at least 10 points. We’ll see if they know something that hasn’t been officially released yet.