I wish Putin was vulnerable to a coup or a general uprising, but I don’t see it happening. Short of that, how will he lose power?
Russia’s economy is a basket case, true, and will probably be set back years due to this. But Russia’s economy has some strengths as well. They are an autarky for the basics like food and fuel; they’ll probably experience deflation this year for grains, oil and methane; I’m sure China will snap up as much of their exports as Russia’s infrastructure will allow them to export. People who are warm and well-fed are less likely to foment revolution.
Putin looks at that and contrasts it to the West, where already-high inflation is only going to be made worse due to shortages in those areas. The US can supply our domestic needs for food and fuel, but we need to help Europe with their shortages; doing so will drive up prices and create shortages domestically. With elections coming up this year in the US and France, there is the prospect of cracks in the alliance against him if the pressure keeps up.
Keep in mind that all of these trends are bad for Putin and Russia in the long term. Over time, Europe, the US and our Pacific allies will be pushed to greater energy independence as a result of this war, and sub-Saharan Africa will have incentives to increase agricultural production to sell to Europe, which will make Russia’s petro-kleptocracy less lucrative and powerful over time.
Putin thinks that West will not be able to stay united against him over the long term. He thinks democracies are weak, myopic, and riven by internal divisions that he can control and exacerbate to his advantage. Over time, as the war Ukraine recedes from public view but our economic woes continue, political actors in the west will do what he wants them to do simply to gain political power and the western alliance against him will fracture.
Keep in mind that his prognostications before now have not gone well - I’m sure the unity of the west since the invasion has been a real surprise, as has Ukraine’s resistance and his army’s lack of competence. But I don’t think he’s going to change his mind about the democratic West until he out-and-out loses, and that’s going to take a long time to happen.
Right now, the western-aligned world needs to keep proving Putin wrong over years, not just weeks or months. If we can do that, we can turn this into Putin’s Waterloo in the long run. Putin’s bet is that we can’t.