New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16

[Onomatopoeia]

Wow, with only 4 percent of precincts reporting, they’re already calling New Hampshire for Trump.

[JohnT]

… and Sanders

[Onomatopoeia]

I was really hoping Christie would have had a better showing than 6th.

[Wesley_Clark]

I’m following at washington post, which has a breakdown by county.

What is odd (both parties are currently at less than 10%) is Sanders is ahead in all the counties so far, but on the R side it varies by county. Cruz is winning one, Kasich is winning another, Trump is in the lead in another, and in a different county it is tied between Kasich and Trump.

I had no idea NH has this much diversity between counties. In Coos Sanders is leading by almost 50, but in the southern counties he is only ahead by 10.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

MSNBC just called it for Trump and Sanders.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

@Onomatopoeia

Wow, with only 4 percent of precincts reporting, they’re already calling New Hampshire for Trump.

I’m seeing the same thing at the AP with 6% of precincts reporting.

ETA: The AP is also calling it for Sanders now.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_WINNERS_NHOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-09-20-02-27

Also a story here on AP: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_RDP_NHOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-09-20-03-29

[Onomatopoeia]

Who is the Republican establishment going to back now? Kasich?

[GloryDays]

@Onomatopoeia

Who is the Republican establishment going to back now? Kasich?

Probably Kasich or Rubio, Christie maybe.

[KarlGauss]

Why did Christie do so poorly? Especially after what I thought was his strong performance in the last debate (where he totally destroyed Rubio), I figured he’d do well in NH.

[BobLibDem]

I think it’s way too early to speculate on places 2-4 in the GOP.

[John_Mace]

@Onomatopoeia

Please, oh please imaginary Jesus, let this be the final breakdown.

That would include imaginary “Katich”, too.

[BrainGlutton]

Looking ahead:

February 11 - Sixth Democratic debate to be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
February 13 - Ninth Republican debate to be held in North Carolina
February 20 - Nevada Democratic caucuses and South Carolina Republican primary
February 23 - Nevada Republican caucuses
February 26 - Tenth Republican debate to be held in Houston, Texas
February 27 - South Carolina Democratic primary

March

March 1 - Super Tuesday: Democratic primaries/caucuses in Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and for Democrats Abroad; Republican primaries/caucuses in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming

Anyone think it will be settled by then, in either party?

[John_Mace]

@Wesley_Clark

I had no idea NH has this much diversity between counties. In Coos Sanders is leading by almost 50, but in the southern counties he is only ahead by 10.

They may hate me for saying this, but much of southern NH is now a suburb of Boston. When I was growing up (during the Neolithic), it was not that way.

[BrainGlutton]

With 13% reporting:

Pubs:
Trump 34.2%
Kasich 15.8%
Bush 11.9%
Cruz 11.1%
Rubio 9.8%
Christie 7.9%
Fiorina 4.4%
Carson 2.2%

Dems:
Sanders 56.6%
Clinton 41.4%

[Wesley_Clark]

@John_Mace

They may hate me for saying this, but much of southern NH is now a suburb of Boston. When I was growing up (during the Neolithic), it was not that way.

Yeah but why does that translate into stronger Clinton support?

Also Trump is now leading in every county. Earlier tonight Kasich was winning in one, Cruz in another, etc. but now Trump is winning all of them from what I can tell.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

@KarlGauss

Why did Christie do so poorly? Especially after what I thought was his strong performance in the last debate (where he totally destroyed Rubio), I figured he’d do well in NH.

Because he’s a one note blowhard who does nothing but talk about how he has “been on the front lines against terrorism as a federal prosecutor”. Shut the fuck up already, Christie.

[Octarine]

I listened to a 538 podcast this morning speculating about NH - the one they taped in a diner - and the whole table pretty much laughed when Nate Silver suggested Kasich could do well. If Kasich holds 2nd place, I think Nate’s got the right to a few “I told you sos”.

[iiandyiiii]

@Octarine

I listened to a 538 podcast this morning speculating about NH - the one they taped in a diner - and the whole table pretty much laughed when Nate Silver suggested Kasich could do well. If Kasich holds 2nd place, I think Nate’s got the right to a few “I told you sos”.

I think one of the new rules of political prognostication is “Nate Silver is usually right”. Not always, but usually, and nothing he says should be discounted.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@BrainGlutton

With 13% reporting:

Pubs:
Trump 34.2%
Kasich 15.8%
Bush 11.9%
Cruz 11.1%
Rubio 9.8%
Christie 7.9%
Fiorina 4.4%
Carson 2.2%

Dangit, man, don’t keep me in suspense: what about Gilmore?

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

@BrainGlutton

Looking ahead:

Anyone think it will be settled by then, in either party?

Considering there are only two candidates on the D side I expect Super Tuesday will make it pretty clear who is going to get the nomination on that side. For the GOP, I honestly don’t know. If one person dominates in all or most of those states I would say yes but I don’t see that as highly likely at this point.