Gilmore had one vote, but it turned out to be an error.
Cruz pushed past Bush into third place. Hoping he drops and blunts his momentum a bit more.
A lot of indigestion tonight from the GOP thinking class who assumed that Trump would be a paper tiger and his “real” support would collapse at the polls.
Lots of voters are motorists?
We need Cruz to beat Bush. That’s the result that helps Kasich most. Rubio is in 5th. Just wow. Now he’s got to start over. Momentum gone.
I think a combo of his reaching out to Obama after hurricane Sandy, and fear that there’s still another shoe to drop in the Bridgegate investigation have kept his numbers down.
He’s probably the most likely casualty of the night. NH was his best chance of the early states, and he still didn’t break the top four. I imagine he’ll throw in the towel tomorrow.
I don’t know, but imagine a suburb of Boston without a bunch of college students. It’s often said that Sanders appeals to NH voters because of the proximity of VT, but southern NH is more aligned with MA and Boston, not so much VT. Particularly southeastern NH (Nashua area).
Shouldn’t Fiorina go away soon?
Can we say that yet, with only a small percentage of votes counted?
A counting error, or the voter’s error?
As a general rule, yes. [rimshot]
ABC just projected that Christie will finish in 6th place – if that holds, I’d think he’d have to get out (and presumably endorse Kasich or Bush).
He doesn’t have the money to compete in SC, but he sure sounds determined to try. Which is fine, he’ll be lucky to get 2% there and THEN he’ll drop out. Christie remaining in the race only poses a problem if he’s taking lots of support from other candidates. Outside of NH, it doesn’t look like that’s going to be a problem.
But Bush and Rubio can carry on because they’ve got money, and Kasich can carry on because he’s got the most momentum of the establishment guys at this point, although that’s not saying much since Rubio now has none and Bush and Christie never had any to begin with. But the establishment really should consider betting their chips on Kasich. Unlike Rubio, they know this guy’s strengths and weaknesses well. He’s not going to disappoint. He’s a very safe bet.
29% reporting:
Pubs:
Trump 34.0%
Kasich 15.4%
Bush 11.6%
Cruz 11.6%
Rubio 10.4%
Christie 8.3%
Fiorina 4.4%
Carson 2.2%
Gilmore 0.0%
Dems:
Sanders 58.1%
Clinton 39.8%
One of the remaining things to watch as results come in: Rubio is right at the edge of being shut out of the delegate allocation.
They called the coin flip wrong?
With 29% reporting
Donald Trump 34.0%
John Kasich 15.4%
Ted Cruz 11.6%
Jeb Bush 11.6%
Marco Rubio 10.4%
All others do not count as New Hampshire IIUC only gives delegates proportionally and to the ones that reach over 10.
Biggest surprise is Jeb so far. Bad news for the Republicans is that many of the so called establishment candidates will not drop out now (allowing for consolidation against Trump or Cruz) because they came so close to second. Going forward the nightmare for the Republicans is that Cruz is ahead in a few states were the winner will take all like California and Texas. With Trump a close second.
Trump is set to win South Carolina, that does have a ‘winner take all’ primary.
The gap between Cruz and Bush is widening. Why in the world is anyone in New Hampshire voting for Cruz?
It did not flip…
Cruz is the most libertarian candidate standing since Paul dropped out. If Paul was still in, Cruz, probably loses a percentage point or two.
If Christie drops out, I suspect he will throw his support behind Kasich.