Female Republican.
Hilary has no chance, Pelosi is too extreme, Rice and Powell don’t want the Presidency.
2008 at the earliest. No one can beat Bush in 2004. He might pick a woman or minority as VP if Cheney dies or becomes unavailable.
Terrorism and the Middle East will mean that voters will want a strong President. None of the Democratic women are perceived as strong enough to be credible. Rice or Powell could have the VP for the asking if Cheney can’t do it.
Here’s hoping.
Regards,
Shodan
With all due respect, Shodan, anyone who says, at this point, that “(n)o one can beat Bush” needs to take a little trip down memory lane ten years or so. In Jan/Feb 1991 Bush the Elder was riding 90%+ approval ratings because of the Gulf War. By November 1992, he found himself losing the election to a governor that nobody outside of pol circles had ever heard of and who’d been consistently rocked by alleged scandals from his past throughout the campaign. High approval ratings two years prior to an election don’t mean much, even in conjunction with an incipient military strike against a generally disliked opponent.l
The next minority group to have a member become President will be men.
But seriously, in the context of the OP, it’ll be a white, moderate woman, of either main party. That conclusion comes from looking at the next level down, namely Governors and Senators, and considering the growing number of females in each category. It’s no longer a novelty, and the women holding those offices are being properly judged by their policy stands and job performances.
Non-whites won’t make it for a while - they’re too far behind in filling the pipeline, partly because Trent-Lott-like attitudes (“we’re bigoted but let’s not discuss it even though the neighbors all know anyway”) are still too widespread.
Here’s my question - what do you think we’ll have first: a black, jewish woman for president … or one that is neither democrat or republican?
A black, Jewish woman.
Ah, yes, but Bush Sr. had one major failing. Can we say “Read my lips,” boys and girls? He made not raising taxes a central point of his campaign, and then as soon as he hit the office, he raised them. I don’t think the public ever forgave him for that. Bush Jr., thus far, has kept all of his campaign promises, as far as I can tell. All of the objective ones, anyway (things like “bringing an air of respect back to the White House” don’t count).
While I won’t say Bush couldn’t be beaten, I will say that something dramatic and unexpected would have to happen for any contender to have a serious chance.
Jeff
I find it very possible to have third-party prez. It was not all that long ago that Ross Perot got 16%. It would take someone who is already in the public eyelike Jesse Ventura was.
Let’s say that Iraq gasses invading US troops in 2003. In response we nuke Baghdad, to worldwide revulsion. Bush is horribly stained as incompetent and murderous, but is nominated in 2004. The Dems put up someone far left advocating peace at any price.
President McCain, Independant, takes office January 2005.
I doubt that we’d ever elect someone who was, say, in a wheelchair.
He wouldn’t inspire people and would never be able to lead a war or anything like that…