Looks like my OP got eaten, so here goes again:
Which nontraditional President-producing group will produce America’s next nontraditional President? Will he/she be African-American? Female? Openly gay? Jewish? Muslim? Buddhist? Pagan? (Write-in categories are encouraged for this extremely unscientific poll.)
If you have a specific individual in mind, please state the person’s name and explain whether you think he/she would be elected because of, or in spite of said individual’s nontraditional President-producing group status. If you don’t, please explain the reasoning behind your choice of group anyway.
I continue to be surprised and disappointed that JFK turns out now to have really broken the barrier against non-Protestants. He was merely the exception that proves the rule (or something.) OTOH I was encouraged to see a female VP candidate and a Jewish VP candidate.
ISTM that prejudice againt a Catholic might be higher today than in 1960, given Priest-gate and the church’s abortion stance. Note that a Catholic is in a Catch-22 on abortion.
I’ll predict that the next “minority” President is a female (if we call women a minority). My reasons are
– there are lots of 'em
– they’re makingprogress in political leadership (e.g., Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Dole, various Governors)
– Hillary Clinton seems to be actively seeking the Presidency and has a good chance of succeeding.
**jeevmon, ** behave yourself, or I’ll tell on you!
I think it’ll be an unapologetic geek with an extroverted half-Sicilian girlfriend who tonight will become the first in his building to see The Two Towers. Are geeks and/or LOTR freaks a minority group for this purpose?
I agree with andymurph, except that I predict that the black male will come before the female. The only woman currently within spitting distance is Hillary, and she polarizes the public too much. A lot of people like her, but just as many detest her.
Actually, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the next minority to break the presidential barrier is black AND a woman… namely, Condi Rice. She has charisma, she’s viewed as competent, and if Cheney is unable to serve as VP for Bush’s next term, she would be a plausible candidate, which would have her running for pres in '08.
I said my post that the minority candidate will need to be conservative because: (use female for example…)
She will need to bring in the conservative vote and will need to get a sizable amount of liberals to vote for her because she is female.
A liberal female/black/whatever cannot do this. They would only have the traditional base minus whoever wouldn’t vote for the minority.
A conservative would lose some of their base due to people not wanting to vote for the minority candidate but it would be more than made up for by the liberal crossing wishing to vote for a minority candidate.
Don’t count out Mr. Powell, or even Mrs. Dole. Condi Rice could also happen. Hillary will try but won’t make it IMO.
I think it will be a while before a “minority” or female President is elected.
When it DOES happen, my guess is it will be a Hispanic candidate who acts and talks like a middle-American white guy. If Henry Cisneros hadn’t screwed up his personal life so badly, he might’ve been the guy. But I think it will be someone LIKE Cisneros.
I don’t think Powell would get the nomination, because he’s too squishy for most conservative tastes. I suppose he could run as a democrat, but I don’t see that happening. Dole will likely be perceived as too old by the time she could run. All MHO, of course.
I’ve read several reports where dubya sees her as his chosen heir (who else in this admin will be under 80 by 2008?) A conservative black woman anointed by an outgoing prez…
I’m another person that’d say that African-American is the most likely at this point. Especially, but not necessarily if he is Republican (Colin Powell could SO get it if he wanted it.)
An Atheist president on the other hand would be… rather unlikely for a long time.
I don’t think that Colin Powell will run, although he would be my first choice. In fact, I think the only reason that Powell is still Sec of State is that he feels an obligation (or opportunity) to keep some balance re the hawks in the cabinet…
Condi Rice is not interested, although she would be a good choice.
Interesting point…these two were my first choices…regardless of the OP. I don’t really care that they fit several minority profiles. Have we really change this much in America? One can hope.
Not so sure about that. We’ve had Catholics make major bids for the GOP nominations for the last ten years, and not be beaten because they were Catholic, but for other reasons. John Kerry is Catholic and I’d put even money on his being the next Democratic nominee. A less likely nominee, Tom Daschle, is also Catholic.
Teddy Kennedy could have had the nomination in 1984 if he hadn’t backed down. He would have lost, but still. If Jeb Bush had won in 1994’s governor race, he probably would have been the GOP candidate in 2000, always having been viewed as the “presidential” brother, and he’s a convert to Catholicism.
Several Catholics are on the Supreme Court, and their religion was never an issue. Nacy Pelosi is a Catholic, which means that the Democratic congressional delegation is being led by two Catholics. If she does well as minority leader, she’s in a position to be the first female Speaker of the House (and from there she becomes a “historic” person, and thus in shooting distance of the Democratic nomination).
I think if a qualified Catholic were nominated, his or her religion would be a non-issue amongst all the educated, decent folk of America. And as for the bigots? Well, they’re gonna vote for a nutcase like Pat Buchanan (hey, another Catholic) anyway…
