I’ve been watching the news closely the past few days, and so I’ve been out of the loop. Does anyone know if North Carolina is still going to have a primary?
Bob - Please.
Aren’t you a fellow trustee of Modern Chemistry? 
Seriously, this is frightening. We needed a double digit win in NC to deflate the popular vote argument of the Queen of Darkness. We’ll be lucky to get any win, let alone a big one. Now Indiana is in serious danger of going 2 digits the other way. If she pulls this off, Obama is in deep trouble.
Do you remember when we did that numbers game where Clinton had to win by 60% every race left? She’s not going to do that - she may win a couple, but Obama will take the nod. There enough people who can’t stand what she has done to her campaign and in the lime light with her husband who will keep her from getting this nomination. Those are just words and opinions, we’ll see what actually happens, but I don’t see Clinton eventually winning the nomination. Not with the way she has handled this campaign. Dirty, dirty, dirty.
That’s an outlier poll anyway.
Is there a link to what the composite poll numbers say?
I can’t find the link for it, but one problem with that poll is that is shows the black vote as 25% of the total, when it’s more likely to be around 35%, and that Obama will take only 65% of the black vote with the rest going to Clinton.
There was a detailed dissection of all the problems with that poll at Daily Kos, but I can’t for the life of me find the diary now to link to. My, how those folks do like to chatter there – even more than Dopers.
My blood is boiling. NPR had astory this evening about an organization called Women’s Voices Women Vote that’s been making illegal robocalls in North Carolina with deliberately confusing information about registering for the primary. They seem to be targeting African American households. They’ve pulled this shit in other states, too.
RealClearPolitics is showing a lot of Clinton-swinging polls. I’m now a bit concerned myself.
The fact that it’s true that she has relatives that lived and worked in places she’s campaigned like Scranton just gnaws at you folks, doesn’t it? LOL
Meanwhile, every time Obama panders about pot roast and jello molds “like home” that’s just adorable. :rolleyes: Someone really should pinch his half-black, half-white cheeks. It’s touching what a gamer he is, ain’t it? Golly gee.
He was ahead by a whole lot, now down to that 7 and sliding. Melikes. 
Yeah, it must be that he likes her.
The only reason anyone would say something that doesn’t favor Obama is because something nefarious is going on of course.
It couldn’t just be the truth. Good lord.
This is why I’ve never understood the criticism that the Obama-Clinton battle hurts the Democrats come November. If Obama is nominated, he’s going to get another flood of contributions, so money’s not an issue. And this keeps him in the news, and McCain out of it. It means far more attention will be paid to the DNC, which will have an interesting vote, than the RNC, which is a formality. Once the horse race starts between Obama and McCain, McCain will need a few weeks just to catch up to Obama from the sense of having been out of the news for so long.
Furthermore, a campaign like this allows the lizards to come out of the cellar early, and maybe be defused before the November vote. If you’re an Obama supporter, do you want Reverend Wright going nuts on national TV in April, or October? I’ll take April for 4 years, Alex. By November, the Wright thing will have cooled off and be seen by many as old news.
Obama will be the one whose campaign machine is warmed up and well-established.
Will Edwards take the bait to be king or queen maker?
Today’s the day for him to have that role in the history of this election or not. Week-end news cycle before a critical primary in which his endorsement could be pivotal. For Obama it could move the news off Wright, back to unity, push him back into double digits in NC and attract enough of the labor votes who still have a thing for Edwards in Indiana to bring that back to the virtual tie he needs. It could kill Hillary. For Clinton it could bring her to the real possibility of an upset in NC and the double digit win in Indiana she needs. It would solidify her story line.
If he ever wants to bargain his endorsement for something he wants, hell, anything he wants, this is his moment.
Will today have that happen? Or is no one willing to meet his price? Or does he really not have a preference?
If he endorses Clinton, he’ll be proving that his populist stand when he was still in the running was a fraud.
IMHO, no.
If Obama had been open to a UHC plan with mandates, Edwards would have endorsed him months ago. But Obama’s done nothing but get even more deeply entrenched in a no-mandates position. That seems to be a deal-breaker for him, and even more so for Elizabeth.
And if Edwards endorsed Hillary, it would undercut Edwards’ entire message from his campaign. He’s still got a lot of passionate supporters out here - but he wouldn’t any longer, if he endorsed Hillary while the nomination was still being contested. He’d be a laughingstock.
Less than 10% chance in my book. It’s hard to say if he really has a great preference for either, I think Obama appeals more to his call for change but Hillary is more in tune with his vision of health care. If Obama sweeps IN and NC, I’d look for him to join the bandwagon, along with dozens of other supers.
Zogby has Obama up by 16 in NC, and tied in IN. You know what I think of Zogby.
The weird thing is, Zogby had been a bit more accurate of late, and I was bracing myself for having to say kinder things about his polling. I think I can relax now.
If he’s right on both counts, I’ll cheerfully kiss the ground he walks on. But I don’t believe it for a second.
The other recent IN polls have Hillary up by 5-8%.
Research 2000, which is right up there with SurveyUSA AFAIAC, has Obama up by 51-44 in NC. Mason-Dixon, which has a good reputation but has been weak this primary season, has Obama up 49-42. Other than Zogby, those are the two latest.
I’d guess that the odds are he won’t or word would be leaking by now. It is just hard for me to imagine him not exercising the power he has at this particular moment. But then Richardson too waited until the most meaningful effect of his choice was long past. These people seem cautious to a fault - “decision by indecision” as they say. As far your call that it has to do with Obama’s no-mandate position RTF, I’d have to imagine that Obama would be willing to quietly agree that once elected he would sign a bill that included a mandate if it was brought to him and to not fight it with more than a faint show of objection. The issue with the mandate is not that it is wrong but that getting it past the Republicans is unlikely. Better something than nothing.