Will have to wait and see what happens tonight, but I think it’s safe to say that the NFC Norris had the most interesting week in a collectively interesting week of football.
Just wanted to resurrect this comment from earlier this season. With the news that the Titans might be sniffing around Cutler (and his own admission that he lives and plans to retire in Nashville) this is starting to get pretty prescient.
I like Cutler a ton and those physical skills cover up a lot of weaknesses, terrible offensive schemes for example, but it’s tough not to notice how much more efficient Trestman’s offense has been under McCown. I haven’'t looked too hard and the opponents and mitigating factors, Jeffery blossoming into a stud for example, but the numbers (if not wins) speak for themselves.
At this point if forced to make a choice, I’d say the right move is to re-sign McCown to a 3-year extension, maybe $15-20M total, and install him as the starter while you draft and develop a rookie or two. Let Cutler go and use that extra money to lock up Marshall, extend Jeffery and bring a couple key defensive veterans back.
Scary thought putting your hopes in McCown and the chances of landing a long term star at QB while drafting in the 15-20 range, but right now that seems like the right tactic.
This. Let JC go. Enough of the gunslinger. Mccown is as good as Cutler but alot cheaper.
I am happy to see Bears fans finally understanding Cutler’s true value. I am also exceeding glad the Bears wasted a great opportunity to win a championship with an amazing defense by giving up so much to get him.
Going to be interesting to see how well McCown plays next week against Cleveland, assuming he’s the starter, it’ll be by far the toughest test he’ll face.
McCown’s history should not give the Bears mush to get excited, he is a backup, his history proves that, and he is 32. However, I am willing to believe that working with Trestman has upped McCown’s game to where he can be a competent to very good starter. I wouldn’t be so quick to say dump Cutler and sign McCown, but I wouldn’t fault Trestman and the Bears for going that route if they feel comfortable with McCown.
The comparison I’ve seen made several times in the past few days is Rich Gannon. Journeyman QB, frequently as a backup, until he wound up at Oakland, and became the starter there at age 34. In a 4-year stretch, he made All-Pro twice, the Pro Bowl all four years, won the MVP, and took his team to the Super Bowl. His QB coach for two of those four seasons (including the MVP/Super Bowl season) was one Marc Trestman.
I’m not sure how good of a comparison it is, but it’s certainly interesting.
These are they two sides of the argument in a nutshell. Is McCown an interception prone journeyman who’s just riding a hot streak against a series of terrible defenses? Or is he a solid-to-good starter who just never got a chance after playing in bad systems with bad supporting casts? Did the light switch just click with him due to maturity, off-field focus or physical development? Is Trestman just that damn good? Are the Bears receivers just that good? Could anyone with a passable arm and good understanding of schemes do this on the Bears?
Now, the Bears would be idiots to install McCown as the starter at 34 years old as a long term solution, but it might very well be smart to let Cutler go and use that money to rebuild the defense. Whether or not McCown can be a playoff-caliber starter through a full 16 game schedule is unclear. Frankly, it might be moot if you concede that this isn’t a Super Bowl team.
What a weekend for the NFC North. The Packers get an exciting win handed to them by Dallas, the Bears get a tedious win handed to them by the Browns, the Vikings get a tough fought upset against the Eagles, and the Lions.
HaHahahahahahahaha. The Lions.
:wiping tears from eyes:
The Lions lose on a last second 61 yard kick. Each week, that teams finds fun ways to win. Well, fun for anyone not a Lions fan.
So it’s still a clusterfuck in the NFC North. Three teams are all still in the hunt for the division championship, and there are no guarantees about anything.
The Packers needed a win, and got one with Dallas folding like a cheap tent in a game that had some of the worst play calling and coaching decisions I’ve seen in awhile. Well, at least since the 2 hours previously when the Browns inexplicably quit running the ball against the worst run defense in the league, opting instead to put the game into Jason Campbell’s unworthy hands. Another week of hoping for Aaron Rodgers to come back, but Matt Flynn is looking more and more capable. The defense, however, is still not up to par. Clay Matthews hasn’t been his usual awesome self, Raji and Pickett aren’t doing much up front, and the safeties have been average at best. I expected more out of Morgan Burnett. Still, the Pack have been in this position before (albeit with Aaron Rodgers, which is a huge deal), and they now control their own destiny. They win two, they win the division.
The Bears went back to Jay Cutler, and got the typical Cutler game. A couple of bad throws, a couple of dumb throws, and a win. I hope they stay with him. I’m not sure they can count on playing bad QB’s and incredibly stupid coaches all the time, but at least now they have the ability to win shootouts. Which is what they may need with that defense. But they too control their own destiny. If they win two, they win the division.
The Vikings aren’t quitting, which is good to see. It looks like the Christian Ponder era is over, and that the secondary still is awful, but I do like that they haven’t just phoned in the rest of the season (I’m looking at you Texans and Browns). They’re trying to develop young talent (Patterson is getting a lot of work) and looking toward next year.
The Lions choke again. If they don’t make the playoffs, I’d be shocked if Schwartz keeps his job. Matthew Stafford is looking more and more like Jay Cutler, strong arm, bad accuracy, poor decisions. Calvin Johnson, and throwing all the time inflate his statistics, but I’m beginning to question his ability to stop making mistakes long enough to win a championship. For all that offensive firepower, last night’s game was a letdown.
Lots of big games this weekend. This is the NFL. Anything can happen.
The rest of the division is probably disappointed the Jim Schwartz era is likely over. Then again, this is the Lions, after all, no guarantee the next coach will be any less of a disaster. (How about Lane Kiffin? /whispering into Mr. Ford’s ear)
Bears are in he catbird seat, but they need to beat the Pack straight up at home. The Lions aren’t dead yet with a couple cupcakes left on the schedule, but the Lions can lose to anyone on any day. The Vikings beating the Lions to end their season would be pretty much par for the course for both teams. Also, would anyone be shocked if the Giants put it together for 3 hours next week and/or the Lions totally quitting on the season?
Back to the Bears. They have a couple tough matchups, the Eagles and their terrible defense and rookie HC in primetime against our terrible defense and rookie HC. Briggs is due back which will hopefully help us handle Shady McCoy, lets hope there’s no snow. Really it’s the Packers game that matters, once again. Even with a loss to the Eagles a win over the Packers would probably still get us in assuming the Steelers do more of what they did last night against Flynn or a rusty Rodgers.
Rodgers almost certainly will be back to face Cutler at Soldier Field in 2 weeks, hopefully Cutler’s rust is worn off by then and Rodgers will be caked on thick. But in a strange turn, the Bears offense is the more explosive one for a change. Neither defense can hold water, but if Briggs is close to 100% I think we’d be the better of the 2 options. So long as Cutler plays within himself and spreads the ball around I really like our chances of making a trip to the playoffs. If that happens it will be Brandon Marshall’s first and I’ll be super happy for him, the guy has been an absolute treat.
Don’t forget that this is the franchise that gave Matt Millen seven years at GM. The “fire Millen” protests started in 2005 and the Lions kept him around until 2008. I’m convinced that they should get rid of Schwartz, but far less confident that they actually will.
So Id id a bit of EXCEL based calculation, because I was. I basically put percentages onto each of te five games remaining that matter and came up with probabilities of winning the division. The probabilities are completely subjective, not scientific in any way.
Lions over Giants = 75%
Bears over the Eagles = 40%
Packers over the Steelers = 65%
Lions over the Vikings = 60%
Bears over the Packers = 60%
So here is what I came up with: Bears 47%, Packers 30%, Lions 23%.
Here are the scenarios I developed, so let me know if I screwed up:
Lions in if: They win twice, Bears lose twice and Packers lose once; Packers lose twice and Bears lose once.
Packers in if: they win twice; or they beat the Bears and the Lions lose once
Bears in if: they win twice; or the Packers lose once and the Lions lose once.
This weekend: Lions eliminated if they lose or all three teams win.
Packers eliminated: If they lose and the Bears win.
Bears cannot be eliminated this weekend.
Looks like Rodgers is still out, which I think makes that Packers-Steelers percentage way too high. The Steelers were bringing it against the Bengals last week and I think this banged up Packers team could fold like a cheap lawn chair.
Also, assuming Rodgers is back for the Bears-Packers tilt that game might be closer to 50-50 even though it’s at home.
I’m hoping if the Packers lose and the Bears win this week, they’ll just sit out Rodgers since they’d already be out.
If it were a soft tissue injury they might, but the bone is healed or its not. I’m guessing if he’s got the OK he’ll go out there just to get the rust off. Happy to be wrong though.
There is some talk that if the Packers win and the Lions lose then the Bears may actually sit some starters on Monday, since all that will matter than is the Packers game. Now I doubt they would sit their starters, but if they find themselves in that situation they may be more cautious if a player does feel a bit tweaked or something.
Same situation exists for the Eagles. Could be a game of all backups.
So this was probably the worst weekend for the NFC North in my recent memory. Three teams with a lot to play for laid complete eggs (and the fourth team also laid an egg). The Lions was the most shocking (yet oddly not really), but how you can lose to the Giants at home in a game you have to win is inexcusable. The good news I suspect for Lions fans is that finally Jim Schwartz will be given the boot.
Meanwhile the Bears, who could win the division, against an Eagles team that theoretically wasn’t playing for much, got hammered in a big way. The Bars defense is horrific.
I saved the Packers for last, because that ws the only game I watched start to finsih. How many ways can I enumerate the ways the Packers lost this game.
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After taking a 14-7 lead late in the first half the special teams allows a return into Packers territory. The Steelers get a late field goal. Special teams was indeed special all day, and not special in a good way.
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The Packers recover a fumble at the three yard line and cannot get it in (although the Packers proabbly would have gotten a TD if the refs got the fumble recovery right the first time. It was close though.) Then the field goal is blocked and if not for the incompetence of the referees the Packers would have completely botched the possession. Instead they get a TD.
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Flynn throws a pick-6 when Andrew Quarrless runs into him…cue the ‘Yakety Sax’ music.
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Flynn fumbles late in the fourth quarter and deep in our own zone.
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The defense holds, yet we go offsides on the FG attempt and the Steelers consequently get a TD.
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We get a nice run back on the ensuing kickoff and manage to get the ball down to the one yard line. Cue a false start penalty and a ten second runoff. One play left.
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Flynn chooses to throw quickly to Boykin, despite the fact that Jordy Nelson was WIDE OPEN in the end zone. Packers lose
These are just the things I remember off the top of head.
So where does that leave us? The Packers travelling to Chicago for the right to get killed in the opening round of the playoffs.
Pretty much. Playing for the right to get pantsed at home by either San Francisco or New Orleans. 
The Packers just killed themselves with penalties yesterday…and, yet, compared to the Bears, at least they didn’t utterly embarrass themselves. This really is the division that not only does no one seem to want to win, but no one seems to really deserve to win, either.