Thursday, Dec. 7
PITTSBURGH 7 Cleveland 33½
The craptastic Browns and the hopeless Steelers. What a scintillating match-up this one is. Both these teams have taken it upon themselves to ruin my season. Big Ben single handedly destroyed my chances of making the playoffs in my big money league. He posted negative scores for I think the first 4 weeks of the season and put me in a 4 game hole. The Browns on the other hand have been so bloody unpredictable that have had to oscillate back and forth between slurping them and crushing them. Frankly I’m just bitter about both teams now. I like the Steelers big here. They’ve got a huge edge in the rushing game on both sides of the ball. Parker should tear up that defense and the Browns aren’t going to be able to stay out of 3rd and long situations. A rookie QB in 3rd and long versus a attacking defense like this is a recipe for disaster.
The Pick: Steelers, Over
Sunday, Dec. 10
KANSAS CITY 3 Baltimore 36
The Chiefs are usually really tough at home and are 5-1 this season. The Ravens haven’t been that impressive on the road this year and their run defense will face a tough test against LJ. I think the Ravens will be the popular choice this week and coming off that long rest it makes sense. I don’t think the Ravens will have much success on the ground and the loss of BJ Sams will hamper their elite return game. In contrast, I think the KC WRs will largely disappear versus the Ravens secondary and Green won’t be able to ride LJ and Gonzo for the entire game. If the Ravens can score 20+ points I think they win the game, but their offense has been inconsistent enough to put that in doubt against a solid Chiefs squad. I have no idea how the Browns did what they did last week, but it’s enough to scare me away from the Chiefs. I can only assume that Billick is going to be watching that tape very closely. I worry about going against the Arrowhead crowd, but this season taking a road dog isn’t exactly a risky bet. Word of caution, KC is 10-2 ATS in it’s last 12 home games.
The Pick: Ravens, Under
Atlanta 3 TAMPA BAY 38
The Bucs are flat out awful. Atlanta really needs to get it together to have a prayer of getting into the playoffs and the Bucs are poor enough on defense that Vick will probably be able to win the game whether he has any success passing the ball or not. The Bucs few good games were at home, but I think Dunn will get back on track in the return to Tampa. Norwood is starting to get steady touches as well and this could be one of those 250+ combined rush yard type games.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
DETROIT 1½ Minnesota 38½
This is the part where I say that the Lions are starting to click under Martz as predicted at the start of the season. This is the part where I point out how closely the Lions played the Pats at home last week. And Sunday would be where Kitna and the Lions conspire to make me look like an asshole by shitting the game away on some ridiculous turnover. I really want to pick the Vikes because there’s nothing worse than resting your hopes on the D but their QB situation is a joke and even their defense has looked spotty as of late. They didn’t play with much heart last week and they’ve sucked on the road this season. Let me hold my nose while I make this one.
The Pick: Lions, Over
HOUSTON 1 Tennessee 42
Houston should not be favored here. The entire stadium will be ready to commit hari-kari the first time they watch Vince Young shed a Mario Williams arm tackle before breaking the pocket and sprinting up-field for a TD. This might be the most dramatic homefield dis-advantage we’re likely to see in a football game ever. Lets not forget the delicious irony in the fact that it’s the former Houston franchise that got the hometown hero too.
The Pick: Titans, Under
CAROLINA 2½ NY Giants 40
Which team is in a more desperate situation? I think it’s the Panthers with Chris Weinke under center. He can’t be that much worse than Delhomme and I can’t say I’d be shocked if he came in and sparked the entire offense, but I don’t suspect the Panthers will be able to implement much of a game plan with him getting up to speed. That’s complicated but the fact that it’s a short week for them further limiting their ability to get Weinke up to speed. With the perception that the Giants coaching staff is frequently outsmarted and under-prepared New Yorkers have to be breathing a sigh of relief knowing that the Panthers are going to be forced to keep things painfully simple.
The Pick: Giants, Under
DALLAS 7 New Orleans 48
This should be a fun one. I keep seeing headlines saying it’s “America’s team versus America’s new team”. Um, hasn’t it been like over a decade since the Cowboys were even remotely close to having broad appeal? Has anyone seriously used that phrase to describe them without a heavy dose of sarcasm? Lets give it a rest, eh? Seven points feels like an awful lot versus a high powered 8-4 team, but with Horn and Colston listed as questionable (game-time decision) you might think they’ll struggle a little. Bush had a monster game last week and I have no idea if that was just a fluke or if it’s going to be a trend. The Cowboys secondary has had trouble with deep passes and Brees is about as good as the come this year. Overall the Cowboys defense is measurably better than the Saints and I suspect Romo and company will get their fair share of big plays as well. The tipping point for me is the loss of Hollis Thomas. The Cowboys have a very impressive running game, especially in the red zone, and without his I don’t think the Saints will be able to get off the field on 3rd down.
The Pick: Cowboys, Over
NY JETS 3½ Buffalo 37
The Bills are really banged up in the secondary and the Jets will be able to put up some numbers against this awful Bills defense both on the ground and in the air. The Jets offensive line has been impressive all season and should control the point of attack all game. The Jets defense leaves something to be desired in it’s own right but I’ve been impressed with how well they play the pass and Losman isn’t exactly the next Steve Young.
The Pick: Jets, Over
Indianapolis 1½ JACKSONVILLE 44
I gotta tell ya, objectively I like the Jags in this one. The Colts are hurting on defense and the Jags should have no trouble running the ball all day long. Jacksonville has been pretty successful at home this season and the Colts have lost their last two road games. The supposedly unstoppable Colts offense has been limited 17 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. Just about every analysis you can muster says you should take the Jags here, especially getting points at home. My gut tells me that in the matchup of Peyton versus Gerrard you go with Manning every time. What the hell.
The Pick: Colts, Over
Philadelphia 1½ WASHINGTON 40½
Jeff Garcia has been impressive in relief of McNabb and I’m going to shamelessly pull for my playoff bound FFL team in this pick by predicting more of the same against the shaky Skins. Campbell has been better than I expected since taking the helm, and the Eagles haven’t exactly been dominant on defense but I suspect their secondary will force a couple INTs this week. Westbrook will have a couple huge plays off screens and Stallworth will toast Carlos Rogers if they get matched up.
The Pick: Eagles, Under
CINCINNATI 11 Oakland 39
The Bengals are clicking. People have rightly pointed out that Oakland’s defense is doing it’s best to keep these games respectable but they are overmatched this week. The issue will only be amplified by the poor Raider offense giving Palmer and crew a short field repeatedly. The Bengals defense has stepped up but I’m not sure I buy it entirely. Neither the Ravens or Browns are juggernauts and even though they held the Saints to 16 points they gave up nearly 600 total yards. Frankly it’s moot though since this Oakland offense is utterly hopeless.
The Pick: Bengals, Over
New England 3½ MIAMI 37
Everyone’s noticed that Brady seems to struggle versus the Dolphins, especially in Miami, and the Pats have been far from impressive in their last 2 contests. Maroney is questionable and the Pats will need their running game at full strength against a very good Miami defense. The Pats defense is in rough shape due to injury but they catch a break with Ronnie Brown out. I feel like the Dolphins are likely to all but abandon the run like they did against Minnesota and they’ve got a really talented group of receivers that will put a ton of pressure on the Pats secondary. Belichick tends to find ways to win these games and the Dolphins are playing for pride, but I think there’s a slump coming for NE.
The Pick: Dolphins, Under
SAN FRANCISCO 4½ Green Bay 44
The Packers won’t be able to stop the Niners running game and that will put a ton of pressure on Favre to put points on the board. The Niners play pretty well at home and when Favre presses he makes a ton of mistakes. I suspect that’ll be the outcome here this week. Big day for Gore and a third poor showing in a row for Favre. There’s rain in the forecast which should limit each teams pass attack and force both sides to remain mistake free. The words “mistake free” and “Green Bay Packers” have rarely been seen in the same sentence over the last few years.
The Pick: Niners, Under
Seattle 3½ ARIZONA 45
The Seahawks are looking to take care of business and lock up homefield here against the official “frisky” team that people are afraid to bet against. Last week Hasselbeck struggled but I don’t think that will continue against these Cards. The Seahawks haven’t been very good away from home this year, but I’m not sure the Cards have the most dominating presence at home. Alexander has historically feasted on this team and I think Holmgren will be pretty aggressive with his play calling knowing that Arizona can put points on the board. The Seachickens haven’t played especially well against the run but Edge leads the league worse rushing attack.
The Pick: Seahawks, Over
SAN DIEGO 7½ Denver 42½
Rookie QB going into San Diego to face that pass rush? Game, set, match.
The Pick: Chargers, Under
Monday, Dec. 11
Chicago 6½ ST. LOUIS 40½
The talk is that Greise has been getting half the snaps in practice all week. That’s interesting. I have a hunch that all the pressure is coming to a head right now and Grossman knows that it’s probably do or die for him. It seems he’s struggled in pressure situations this season and he laid a colossal egg in his last MNF appearance. Nonetheless I figure he’ll put together a really good game this week if for no other reason but to further confound me. I can see him having a mistake free game, putting the Greise talk on hold until he implodes again in week 16 when there’s no time left audition a new guy. Makes me sick thinking about it. Of course the Rams haven’t been able to stop anyone this season and the Bears ground attack should have plenty of success, putting Rex in a comfortable position often.
The Pick: Bears, Under
OMNI Picks: Steelers, Bears, Falcons, Titans, Chargers
