Sunday, Dec. 3
CHICAGO 9½ Minnesota 34½
The Vikes played the Bears pretty tough last time, but that was in the Hump dome and the Vikes are playing much, much worse now than they were at the start of the season. Rex really needs to get his shit together and this Vikes defense is pretty solid. They don’t pressure the QB exceptionally well and that’s a good thing for Rex. The Bears ran the ball against an excellent Pats run defense and they’ll need to repeat that against the league’s best this week. Gonna be a tough road though. If Rex doesn’t turn the ball over deep in their own territory the Vikes can’t be expected to score at all. The Bears might struggle offensively but the defense should let them cover that 10 points at home in the cold.
The Pick: Bears, Under
PITTSBURGH 7½ Tampa Bay 40½
Both teams suck but this feels like a breakout game for the Steelers offense after laying an egg last week. They are playing for pride, which they don’t have much of it seems, but the Bucs are really going to struggle on the road in the cold of Heinz field. Big day for Willie Parker against a depleted Bucs D.
The Pick: Steelers, Under
ST. LOUIS 6½ Arizona 46½
I don’t trust the Rams at all and they have some injuries on the defensive line that will help the Cardinals move the chains. They had a productive game last week by relying on Leinart’s arm and that was against a much better defensive team than the Rams. The Rams do play the pass pretty well, but they haven’t seen too many WRs like Boldin and Fitz. Steven Jackson might take over this game if Linehan lets him and last week that formula they used to sneak by the Niners. I suspect this game could play out almost exactly like the Vikes-Cards game last week with the Rams making fewer mistakes and picking apart the Cards defense in a back-and-forth affair.
The Pick: Rams, Over
Indianapolis 7½ TENNESSEE 47
Man, if this keeps up I might have to start eating a little crow over my predictions of Vince Young’s failure. The Titans somehow hung close with the Colts in Indy and this is becoming the stylish upset pick of the week for experts based on the Titans recent success. I don’t buy it. Pacman Jones can’t cover both Wayne and Marvin and they Colts are getting Stokley back to boot. That big comeback win for the Titans also could mean a letdown game this week, as much as you can have a letdown as a 4-7 team facing the leagues best can have anyways. Go chalk.
The Pick: Colts, Over
MIAMI pk Jacksonville 35½
The Jags are this seasons good week-bad week team. They had a bad one last week and by definition should have a good one this week. The Dolphins have found just the right balance on offense and are playing as well as anyone on defense lately. Still, they are going to be without Ronnie Brown and the Jags defensive front is getting healthy. Harrington will have to move the chains on his own and lest we forget, this is Joey Harrington. I’m not sold on Garrard and the Jags offense, especially on the road, but I don’t like Saban’s chances without a running game.
The Pick: Jags, Under
NEW ORLEANS 7 San Francisco 45
The Saints are clicking on all cylinders right now and the Niners are sporting a pretty iffy pass defense. Coming into the dome the Saints have been really tough. I like the Niners and their ability to control the clock with Frank Gore will keep them in the game. SF hasn’t played particularly well on the road this year and they’ve been kicked around by some of the most balanced offenses they’ve faced. Probably more of the same this week, though this would be the least surprising upset if it happened.
The Pick: Saints, Over
WASHINGTON 1½ Atlanta 38½
The Falcons are in freefall and the Redskins seem to have found some semblance of consistency since Campbell has gotten the call. I’m as shocked as anyone about the latter. The disarray around Vick and the Falcons would normally lead you to think they were cooked in this game, but this season you’re usually safe going the other way from convention. The big stat is the trouble that the Skins have had stopping the run and Vick’s mobility will exacerbate that issue.
The Pick: Falcons, Under
Kansas City 5 CLEVELAND 35½
All season long I’ve been giving the Browns undeserved credit and often picking them to cover against better teams. Well, never again. After that thumping they took last week I’ll be damned if I get burned by them again. I hope they lose this one by 50….and they might.
The Pick: Chiefs, Over
NEW ENGLAND 13½ Detroit 41½
I wasn’t that impressed with the Pats last week and I think they will have another big letdown game soon. They get hurt at an alarming rate and Brady can’t carry this team by himself. Still, this Lions team is just terrible. Their secondary will make the Pats WRs look like the Fouts-era Chargers group. Blowout. More chalk….sigh.
The Pick: Pats, Over
San Diego 6 BUFFALO 42½
Time to go out on a limb, I figure a Southern Cal team going to chilly Buffalo is the best candidate of the lot. I’d feel better if it were going to be in the single digits, but I’ll settle for freezing. The Bills are coming off a pair of big wins and the Chargers looked like they were busy sucking each other’s popsicles before last weeks Raider game. The Chargers will probably win the game, but I think Rivers struggles just enough to make it tight.
The Pick: Bills, Under
NY Jets 1 GREEN BAY 42½
The Packers suck and Favre is just terrible. It’s really comical to behold, but I’m going to go against my better judgment anyways and pick them here. It’s going to be balls-cold up in Lambeau and Favre has a history of playing good in that type of weather. I think Pennington will struggle with his grip a bit in the cold and that surgically repaired shoulder will stiffen up. Toss in a big day from Ahman Green and you’ve got a nifty little upset.
The Pick: Packers, Under
Dallas 3½ NY GIANTS 43½
I have to admit, my gut tells me that all this turmoil in NYC amounts to nothing. I just don’t see how these guys really give a crap what the media says any more. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come out and take the Cowboys down this week either, but Eli is just playing awful and Strahan is still out and won’t be able to exploit the shaky Cowboy pass blocking. Additionally the Giants sport on of the leagues worst pass D’s so Glenn and TO should have huge days.
The Pick: Cowboys, Over
OAKLAND 3 Houston 35½
There’s a rat in Oakland!! If that’s not a cry for help I don’t know what is.
The Pick: Texans, Over
DENVER 4 Seattle 40
And we finally get to begin the Jay Cutler era. Count me as one of the wannabe honks who pimped Cutler heading into the draft. I think he’ll turn out to be a very good player but I don’t like the idea of sending him out against a team like the Seahawks who pressure the QB so well. With a healthy Alexander and Hasselbeck I’m a little surprised they are 4 point dogs. Denver’s defense is really good, but if you look at the numbers the Seahawks actually are pretty close when you compare the yardage numbers. I really liked the way Alexander was running last week and I think he’ll be able to move the chains.
The Pick: Seahawks, Under
Monday, Dec. 4
Carolina 3 PHILADELPHIA 37½
I have no way to justify this except that I think the Panthers are due to lay another turd. The Eagles can’t stop the run and with McNabb out should be road kill here, but I feel the need to defy logic and go against the bafflingly inconsistent Panthers. I have no analysis or specific predictions to support this, but I think when the dust settles the Panthers will be pointing fingers and generally be displeased.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
OMNI- Picks: Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks, Texans, Colts