Here’s the rest of the picks.
Sunday, Nov. 26
Jacksonville 3 BUFFALO 35½
I think the Bills are going to upset a few better teams as the season winds down but they match up poorly against the Jags. A-Train has done a pretty solid job of filling in for McGahee on paper but one has to notice that his solid games came against a pair of awful run defenses in Indy and Green Bay. Last week the less than impressive Texans shut him down. At the same time the Jags are getting healthy on the D-line which makes them the strongest run D the Bills will have seen in some time. Losman had a nice game last week but that was largely on the shoulders of those 2 93-yard passes to Lee Evans. The balance of the game was his typical mediocrity. Offensively the Jags are on the decline but they still can run the ball and the Bills can’t stop it. Give the points and don’t look back, road game in Buffalo or not.
The Pick: Jags, Under
NY JETS 5½ Houston 40
Both teams are unimpressive with the run using similar RB-by-committee approaches. The Jets offensive line should have little trouble dominating the Texans front and as a result I expect Pennington to have plenty of time to spread the ball around. The Texans do have a threatening passing attack and it could help to offset some of the personnel holes they have on the defensive secondary and offensive line. My gut tells me that the Texans are due to get a win like this on the road but the Jets did play the Bears pretty close in the Meadowlands and I don’t think the Texans can force Chaz into those same mistakes.
The Pick: Jets, Over
BALTIMORE 3 Pittsburgh 38
I think the Ravens are really overrated this season and they aren’t as good as their record indicates. They’ve played a pretty soft schedule and their issues on offense are still notable. At the same time, the Steelers are overrated by odds makers because of their irrational fan base and last years success. Bookies have gotten rich off people who insist on putting money on the Steelers. That said, I’m going to do just that here. I like the Steelers defense’s chances to completely stop the Ravens rush and to force McNair into making mistakes. Big Ben sure as hell has to get his act together but I think Willie Parker will keep them from 3rd and long situations and his WRs are finally starting to carry their weight, most notably Holmes. Don’t bet the mortgage on it but I’d take the points.
The Pick: Steelers, Under
Cincinnati 3 CLEVELAND 43
The Bengals gave up a ton of yards last week to the Saints. The Browns don’t have the same talent but they do have some athletes and their rookie RB might have a nice day versus a soft Bengals defense. The Browns have played some strong teams close and I like the way they match up in the trenches this week. Stopping the Cincy WRs wil be a major hurdle but I think stopping Rudi Johnson will go a long way to making the Bengals offense predictable. On paper this is a big mismatch in favor of the Bengals but I think the Browns are better defensively than the numbers indicate. They’ll need to prove that this week to have a chance. I think the Browns offense will have a breakout day. If Rudi has a big day all bets are off though.
The Pick: Browns, Over
MINNESOTA 6 Arizona 39
I’m not sure what it is but this week I like several of the crummy teams to have good days. Part of it’s the match ups, but maybe I’m feeling uncommonly generous in the spirit of the holiday. If I take a step back to think about it that’s probably a poor idea, I can envision the long holiday weekend being the perfect opportunity for these basement dwellers to pig out, get lazy and quit on the season. If you’re a Cardinal player and you’re sitting at home with the family eating turkey and watching the Lions get lit up by Harrington and the some guy named Romo going for 5 TDs it has to make you seriously question your chances, right? Usually we look at the matchups between two teams and decide which of the two teams strengths will over power the other. In this game it’s the opposite, we have to decide which is more inept, the Vikes offense or the Cards defense. I’ll take the pricey Vikes O-line against the hapless interior of the Cards. I don’t expect much from Brad Johnson but I think Taylor will give them something. And that something will be enough when the Vikes impressive defense smothers the Cards. Leinart is going to be solid but the noise of the dome will be a tough learning experience.
The Pick: Vikings, Under
ST LOUIS 5½ San Francisco 45
This spread is goofy. The Rams have lost 5 straight and the Niners have won 3 straight. The 49ers won their first meeting and are playing much, much better now than they were in week 2. There’s a lot of reason to like the Rams, especially their passing attack, at home in the done against Walt “Toast” Harris and a so-so Niners secondary but when a spread looks as irrational as this one by objective analysis you take the points and hope for the best.
The Pick: Niners, Over
ATLANTA 3 New Orleans 47
Much the same can be said about this game as the one before. The Saints handled the Falcons in week 3 and Vick and company have been pretty terrible as of late. The contrast is that the Saints have taken it on the chin in the last two weeks and have given up 69 points in that span. The Saints have been averaging about 550 yards a game in those losses and the deciding factor has been 7 turnovers (-6 differential) they combined for in those two games. I’m going to go on a limb and wager that the Saints will do a better job of protecting the ball, and it’s not as if Vick and company are that sure handed themselves, and another big offensive day will get them back on track.
The Pick: Saints, Over
Carolina 4 WASHINGTON 36
Washington really sucks and Campbell won’t put together another solid outing against a first rate Panther defense. This reads like a 3 INT game for him. Steve Smith is going to be huge versus a helpless Redskin secondary.
The Pick: Panthers, Over
NEW ENGLAND 3 Chicago 36½
This one should be another exciting tilt, the NFL did us a favor by moving it to a late game. I’m pretty concerned here. The Pats match up pretty well and the Bears are without Manning Jr. in the secondary. The lack of a dominant receiving threat boosts my confidence significantly as those types of players are precisely those which can break down this defense best. As it is, single coverage should be good enough to stymie them. Rivera will have to adjust his typical strategy to shut down the Pats running attack, something he’s occasionally a little too proud to do. I hope the experience against the Dolphins cures him of that. Brady has been taking several hits this season, partially due to his trying to force the action and partially due to poor blitz pickups. The lack of WR talent makes him vulnerable to late blitzes off the edges, something the Bears as the best in the league at. On the other side of the ball the thought of Grossman going against a Belichick gameplan scares the bejesus out of me. Ron Turner has done an admirable job of reeling Grossman in and calling a more conservative game as of late and he’ll need to do that again to avoid the back breaking INTs. If the Bears stick to the run and move the chains, no small feat against the Pats defense, we should be in good shape and should be able to give Rex space to step up. I’m not sure that will happen, but it’s the gameplan. In any case this game is going to tell us a lot about how good the Bears can be. I think the defense will do their job, if Grossman can hold up his end we should get out with a victory.
The Pick: Bears, Under
INDIANAPOLIS 9½ Philadelphia 44½
Without McNabb this one is easy. It should be a bigger spread than that frankly. The Colts offense will run up and down the field against this defense in the dome. Andy Reid will once again get burned by his insistence on neglecting the downhill, between-the-tackles running game. The Colts big weakness as everyone keeps saying is run defense and the Eagles lack the tools to exploit it, the impact of which is only amplified by the loss of the starting QB.
The Pick: Colts, Under
NY Giants 3½ TENNESSEE 42½
I really don’t have a read on this game but the Giants have looked terrible two weeks in a row and they aren’t much healthier now than they were. The Titans are on the upswing and are at close to full strength in their defensive front. The extra dimension Vince Young brings should cause even more trouble for a toothless Giant pass rush. I see little reason to believe that the Giants can stop the Titans offense and I’m going to go against Eli until he gives me a reason not to on the road.
The Pick: Titans, Over
SAN DIEGO 13 Oakland 43
Thirteen is a lot of points, as I’ve noted in the past, and the Raiders are fielding a better than advertised defense. Still, at home, the Chargers are as close to unstoppable as you can get. The Charger secondary is not good and the defense as a whole has been giving up too many points. Still, this is Aaron Brooks here and I’m sure there are two or three backbreaking INTs waiting to happen.
The Pick: Chargers, Over
Monday, Nov. 27
SEATTLE 9½ Green Bay 46
Why the hell are the Packers on MNF this season? Everyone knew they were gonna suck. They got absolutely plastered last week and Favre is questionable to start for the first time in forever. Frankly I hope he doesn’t play, or at least leaves the game early, just to punish the league for stupidly forcefeeding us the Pack in primetime. Yeah, they wanted the Favre swan song and the matchup against Holmgren makes for a good storyline but how about just giving us good games once in a while? The Seahawks are pretty close to full strength with Alexander and Hasselbeck back in the lineup and should have no trouble finding their rhythm versus the helpless Green Bay defense.
The Pick: Seahawks, Under
And the OMNI- Picks for the week: Cowboys, Chargers, Seahawks, Jags, Panthers