NFL 2006 Weekly Predictions

Actually - refresh my memory. Was the Nalen dive for the knees on a play where they spiked the ball? I know no one moved except him, so it was clear no play was being run - I couldn’t remember if it was a penalty or a spike.

If it was a spike, then Nalen going for the knees was even more deliberate and classless than standard Denver procedure - in which case he was deliberately trying to injure another player on an essentially non-contact play, and deserved worse than what he got.

Woops, it was Igor Olshansky that did it, not Castillo (who wasn’t in the game due to injury)

classy Denver

Madden: “He thought Nalen went for his knees, which he did, but that’s okay…”

Yep - a dive for the knees on a spike, totally fine.

Woo Hoo! After that great Chargers/Denver game (how many records were made that night?), I’m even more excited about our prospects.

G :slight_smile: SAN DIEG :eek: !

For whatever reason, I kind of like the Chargers as a team, but I’d hate to see Marty get rewarded.

(He kept the Browns, the best team in the AFC for a few years, out of the superbowl while he was here - but it’s not just that - I just hate gutless coaching in general)

Grading my bets:

  1. 75 on Ind -1, loss. Screw you Indy!
  2. 30 on NO/Cin over 51. Lost. Bah. They hit 47.
  3. 30 Bills +2.5 v Houston. Won. Would’ve won straight up, like I figured.
  4. 30 on Chicago -6.5 v Jets, won.
  5. 30 Seattle -3.5 vs SF. Loss. Seattle sucks.

Net -88.5. Total overall: $480.50

Btw, Omni, we’re precisely tied in the spread pick’em league.

Crap, I gotta get some sleep now, but I forgot to make my picks. We get Thursday games from here on out…ugh.

Spread picker picks:
3 Bucs
2 Broncos

Here’s my picks for tomorrow’s games:

Dolphins -3, over 39
Bucs +11, under 39
Chiefs +1, over 38

And my action for tomorrow:

Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Dolphins getting 5, Bucs getting 19, Broncos getting 7

If the Dolphins can’t cover a teased spread, I get no action in the subsequent timeslots. I’m okay with that, as I’ll probably be sleeping off the tryptophan anyway.

Here’s some brief picks for the Thursday games.

Thursday, Nov. 23
Miami 2½ DETROIT 39
Miami is starting to gel and the Lions secondary is truly awful. Both starting RBs are dinged up. The Miami defense is by far the most talented crew on the field and these Thursday games have historically favored the favorites.

The Pick: Dolphins, Under

DALLAS 11 Tampa Bay 39
Eleven points is an awful lot and I’m not ready to fall in love with Romo yet, but the Bucs can’t score at all. Against a pretty good Cowboy defense they’ll be lucky to break 200 yards total. Failing a serious implosion by Dallas this should be a walk.

The Pick: Cowboys, Under

KANSAS CITY PK Denver 38
Going to be an exciting game and I’m going to agree with the majority and predict that this is the game where the wheels finally come off for Plummer. Pressure is mounting and it’s going to take one truly awful game before Shanahan will strongly consider going with Cutler. I think this one is it. On a short week on the road against a quality team. The Chiefs will get ahead early with LJ and Plummer will have to throw the ball. It’s a recipe for disaster.

The Pick: Chiefs, Over
I’m making the Dallas game an OMNI- pick to boot.

It would appear that there’s a secret for getting a star QB on the cheap.

Draft him after the 5th round.
Have Bledsoe start in front of him, but then be out for some reason.
Profit.

Here’s the rest of the picks.

Sunday, Nov. 26
Jacksonville 3 BUFFALO 35½
I think the Bills are going to upset a few better teams as the season winds down but they match up poorly against the Jags. A-Train has done a pretty solid job of filling in for McGahee on paper but one has to notice that his solid games came against a pair of awful run defenses in Indy and Green Bay. Last week the less than impressive Texans shut him down. At the same time the Jags are getting healthy on the D-line which makes them the strongest run D the Bills will have seen in some time. Losman had a nice game last week but that was largely on the shoulders of those 2 93-yard passes to Lee Evans. The balance of the game was his typical mediocrity. Offensively the Jags are on the decline but they still can run the ball and the Bills can’t stop it. Give the points and don’t look back, road game in Buffalo or not.

The Pick: Jags, Under

NY JETS 5½ Houston 40
Both teams are unimpressive with the run using similar RB-by-committee approaches. The Jets offensive line should have little trouble dominating the Texans front and as a result I expect Pennington to have plenty of time to spread the ball around. The Texans do have a threatening passing attack and it could help to offset some of the personnel holes they have on the defensive secondary and offensive line. My gut tells me that the Texans are due to get a win like this on the road but the Jets did play the Bears pretty close in the Meadowlands and I don’t think the Texans can force Chaz into those same mistakes.

The Pick: Jets, Over

BALTIMORE 3 Pittsburgh 38
I think the Ravens are really overrated this season and they aren’t as good as their record indicates. They’ve played a pretty soft schedule and their issues on offense are still notable. At the same time, the Steelers are overrated by odds makers because of their irrational fan base and last years success. Bookies have gotten rich off people who insist on putting money on the Steelers. That said, I’m going to do just that here. I like the Steelers defense’s chances to completely stop the Ravens rush and to force McNair into making mistakes. Big Ben sure as hell has to get his act together but I think Willie Parker will keep them from 3rd and long situations and his WRs are finally starting to carry their weight, most notably Holmes. Don’t bet the mortgage on it but I’d take the points.

The Pick: Steelers, Under

Cincinnati 3 CLEVELAND 43
The Bengals gave up a ton of yards last week to the Saints. The Browns don’t have the same talent but they do have some athletes and their rookie RB might have a nice day versus a soft Bengals defense. The Browns have played some strong teams close and I like the way they match up in the trenches this week. Stopping the Cincy WRs wil be a major hurdle but I think stopping Rudi Johnson will go a long way to making the Bengals offense predictable. On paper this is a big mismatch in favor of the Bengals but I think the Browns are better defensively than the numbers indicate. They’ll need to prove that this week to have a chance. I think the Browns offense will have a breakout day. If Rudi has a big day all bets are off though.

The Pick: Browns, Over

MINNESOTA 6 Arizona 39
I’m not sure what it is but this week I like several of the crummy teams to have good days. Part of it’s the match ups, but maybe I’m feeling uncommonly generous in the spirit of the holiday. If I take a step back to think about it that’s probably a poor idea, I can envision the long holiday weekend being the perfect opportunity for these basement dwellers to pig out, get lazy and quit on the season. If you’re a Cardinal player and you’re sitting at home with the family eating turkey and watching the Lions get lit up by Harrington and the some guy named Romo going for 5 TDs it has to make you seriously question your chances, right? Usually we look at the matchups between two teams and decide which of the two teams strengths will over power the other. In this game it’s the opposite, we have to decide which is more inept, the Vikes offense or the Cards defense. I’ll take the pricey Vikes O-line against the hapless interior of the Cards. I don’t expect much from Brad Johnson but I think Taylor will give them something. And that something will be enough when the Vikes impressive defense smothers the Cards. Leinart is going to be solid but the noise of the dome will be a tough learning experience.

The Pick: Vikings, Under

ST LOUIS 5½ San Francisco 45
This spread is goofy. The Rams have lost 5 straight and the Niners have won 3 straight. The 49ers won their first meeting and are playing much, much better now than they were in week 2. There’s a lot of reason to like the Rams, especially their passing attack, at home in the done against Walt “Toast” Harris and a so-so Niners secondary but when a spread looks as irrational as this one by objective analysis you take the points and hope for the best.

The Pick: Niners, Over

ATLANTA 3 New Orleans 47
Much the same can be said about this game as the one before. The Saints handled the Falcons in week 3 and Vick and company have been pretty terrible as of late. The contrast is that the Saints have taken it on the chin in the last two weeks and have given up 69 points in that span. The Saints have been averaging about 550 yards a game in those losses and the deciding factor has been 7 turnovers (-6 differential) they combined for in those two games. I’m going to go on a limb and wager that the Saints will do a better job of protecting the ball, and it’s not as if Vick and company are that sure handed themselves, and another big offensive day will get them back on track.

The Pick: Saints, Over

Carolina 4 WASHINGTON 36
Washington really sucks and Campbell won’t put together another solid outing against a first rate Panther defense. This reads like a 3 INT game for him. Steve Smith is going to be huge versus a helpless Redskin secondary.

The Pick: Panthers, Over

NEW ENGLAND 3 Chicago 36½
This one should be another exciting tilt, the NFL did us a favor by moving it to a late game. I’m pretty concerned here. The Pats match up pretty well and the Bears are without Manning Jr. in the secondary. The lack of a dominant receiving threat boosts my confidence significantly as those types of players are precisely those which can break down this defense best. As it is, single coverage should be good enough to stymie them. Rivera will have to adjust his typical strategy to shut down the Pats running attack, something he’s occasionally a little too proud to do. I hope the experience against the Dolphins cures him of that. Brady has been taking several hits this season, partially due to his trying to force the action and partially due to poor blitz pickups. The lack of WR talent makes him vulnerable to late blitzes off the edges, something the Bears as the best in the league at. On the other side of the ball the thought of Grossman going against a Belichick gameplan scares the bejesus out of me. Ron Turner has done an admirable job of reeling Grossman in and calling a more conservative game as of late and he’ll need to do that again to avoid the back breaking INTs. If the Bears stick to the run and move the chains, no small feat against the Pats defense, we should be in good shape and should be able to give Rex space to step up. I’m not sure that will happen, but it’s the gameplan. In any case this game is going to tell us a lot about how good the Bears can be. I think the defense will do their job, if Grossman can hold up his end we should get out with a victory.

The Pick: Bears, Under

INDIANAPOLIS 9½ Philadelphia 44½
Without McNabb this one is easy. It should be a bigger spread than that frankly. The Colts offense will run up and down the field against this defense in the dome. Andy Reid will once again get burned by his insistence on neglecting the downhill, between-the-tackles running game. The Colts big weakness as everyone keeps saying is run defense and the Eagles lack the tools to exploit it, the impact of which is only amplified by the loss of the starting QB.

The Pick: Colts, Under

NY Giants 3½ TENNESSEE 42½
I really don’t have a read on this game but the Giants have looked terrible two weeks in a row and they aren’t much healthier now than they were. The Titans are on the upswing and are at close to full strength in their defensive front. The extra dimension Vince Young brings should cause even more trouble for a toothless Giant pass rush. I see little reason to believe that the Giants can stop the Titans offense and I’m going to go against Eli until he gives me a reason not to on the road.

The Pick: Titans, Over

SAN DIEGO 13 Oakland 43
Thirteen is a lot of points, as I’ve noted in the past, and the Raiders are fielding a better than advertised defense. Still, at home, the Chargers are as close to unstoppable as you can get. The Charger secondary is not good and the defense as a whole has been giving up too many points. Still, this is Aaron Brooks here and I’m sure there are two or three backbreaking INTs waiting to happen.

The Pick: Chargers, Over

Monday, Nov. 27
SEATTLE 9½ Green Bay 46
Why the hell are the Packers on MNF this season? Everyone knew they were gonna suck. They got absolutely plastered last week and Favre is questionable to start for the first time in forever. Frankly I hope he doesn’t play, or at least leaves the game early, just to punish the league for stupidly forcefeeding us the Pack in primetime. Yeah, they wanted the Favre swan song and the matchup against Holmgren makes for a good storyline but how about just giving us good games once in a while? The Seahawks are pretty close to full strength with Alexander and Hasselbeck back in the lineup and should have no trouble finding their rhythm versus the helpless Green Bay defense.

The Pick: Seahawks, Under

And the OMNI- Picks for the week: Cowboys, Chargers, Seahawks, Jags, Panthers

Re: The Giants @ Titans game.

That hurt. That really hurt.

:frowning:

Can we talk about this one? I’m happy NE won and all, but I’m still feeling embittered about those two pass-interference calls that gave Chicago 10 points. Is there any more detestable penalty than one that rewards a team with 40 yards for throwing a bad pass, especially when the infraction is so marginal? I really think it’s a problem with the game.

The first of the two (that led to the TD) was a truly terrible call, as the DB had the inside position (ball was thrown to the inside), was playing the ball the entire way, and there was minimal contact at MOST - that is absolutely how you want your Model Perfect DB to cover that particular pass. The second was at least marginally justifiable, though definitely still ticky-tack and incidental.

NE didn’t really look that great in that game, but Chicago looked… um… really bad, particularly on offense. If the refs had held their flags on those two plays, Chicago would have scored 3 points in a game in which they were the recipients of five turnovers, won the time of possession battle, and ran for 153 yards. Rex Grossman, we have a problem.

As for the Pats, well, they need to hold onto the ball, plain and simple. If they don’t turn the ball over - and “turn the ball over” is a little misleading, because the Bears D was excellent in terms of FORCING those turnovers and grabbing any loose ball - this game could have gotten ugly pretty quickly, given where most of the turnovers happened (deep in Chicago territory). I guess now we get to see if the pro-Seau or anti-Seau people are correct as to his effect on the defense, since I don’t see him returning this season after that snapped arm. The Pats don’t have a ton of challenges between now and the playoffs, so we’ll see if they can put everything together while possibly sneaking up the playoff seedings as Baltimore and SD play potentially more difficult matchups.

You can discuss it all you want but on the first two drives of the game there were a pair of god-awful no calls on pass interference. The most egregious of which was in the endzone where Samuel grabbed Berrian’s arm and spun him around, tying up his feet in the process.

The Bears played a shit game, no doubt, but the refs had a shittier one. To imply that the Pats got screwed in any form is utter foolishness.

Really I think the game hinged on that inexplicable fumbled snap. I have no idea what Grossman was doing there, it hasn’t been in a issue for him this season, and on the replay it was abundantly clear that he pulled away his bottom hand for no reason. Even a pop warner QB knows you plant both hands under center until the ball hits your palms. Just an odd sequence. The Bears were dominating the Pats defense at that point and almost certainly looked to be heading for a TD. The turnover cost them points and momentum.

That’s not why it was such a key moment though, even if it did force them to de-emphasize the run, it was key because Grossman’s hand got stepped on by his guard as he was reaching for the ball. The announcer stupidly thought it happened at the end of the scrum when it in fact happened immediately after the ball hit the ground. From that point forward Grossman seemed to struggle with his grip and lost most of his touch on the deep ball which he tends to trown better than any other route. In previous games I’ve never seen him consistently underthrow those deep posts which Samuel twice intercepted. Samuel was beat on both of those plays and a ball thrown in stride would have been caught or incomplete.

I felt pretty good about the way the Bears offense played. Minus the turnovers we pretty much moved the ball at will, something I was unsure we’d be able to do, especially on the ground. Give me a rematch in Miami.

Your only hope in Miami is if they change the rules so that the Bears are allowed to play an NFC team for the title. The Pats, Colts, Ravens, and Chargers would all be favored against the Bears, and the Chiefs and Bengals would be pick 'em.

NFC is such a joke right now. They’re 21-32 against the AFC.

IINM, the last 4 weeks against the number, the AFC is

4-0

5-2

2-0

4-1

against the NFC and the number.

Pats could have won that thing 17-3 yesterday if Chicago wasn’t handed presents.

Classy team, too. Lovie Smith used the ole “call time out so late that he still has to kick it” move before the long FG in the first half.

That’s the single biggest bitch move in football. A man doesn’t call a football game like that. Keep trying to play like fairies, and you’re going to lose like fairies.

I also liked the open hands to the head the Chicago player wasn’t called for in the second half while laying on the NE player on the ground. Classy stuff.

Although, it would have been nice if Brady had at least picked up Urlacher’s jock strap for him after his juked him out of it on that 3rd and 9 play. Overrated much, Brian? No big deal missing that tackle, though, it only led to the Pats winning touchdown.

I hope Dallas keeps playing well because I couldn’t stand to watch these boring turnover prone shit bags who lost to Miami and New England one more game. Hopefully, they’ll just get spanked at home again in the playoffs.

Didn’t see those plays you mention, though I’ll take your word for it. What’s indisputable is that two bad calls by the ref led directly to 10 gift points. It’s the erraticness which which pass interference is called that drives me nuts – as well as the astounding payoff for the offensive team when it is called.

By the way, what did you think of settling for a field goal on that fourth-and-five play in the red zone with about four minutes to play? I’d have gone for the first, myself. Smith’s explanation after the fact made no sense to me.

This is what gets your dander up? Seriously? Give me a fucking break. And the Bears are the fairies? Sorry to upset your delicate sensibilities with a little gamesmanship. Where do you stand on Belichick’s creativity with the injury reports, pray tell? You’re about to make me start sympathizing with the Yankees if I keep hearing any more retarded Boston-fan whining, and that my friend is an unforgivable offense.

All this, coming from a Pats fan, home to the single dirtiest, cheap shot artist in the league in Rodney Harrison, is bordering on comical.

How many Pats got carried off the field there? For the one Urlacher juke he buried the Pats running backs all day long, yeah that guy sucks. Oh yeah, who was it that KO’ed O’Callaghan, again? Grossman played a crappy game, fine, but you look like a jackass calling anyone a fairie.

I didn’t hear his explanation, so I can’t comment on that, but the call seems partially defensible to me. With the way the Bears had been able to totally dominate the Pats running game, it probably seemed like a reasonable assumption with 4:51 left that they’d be getting the ball back with plenty of time to put together another drive for the win.

Of course the same logic can be applied to state that they could have stopped them inside the 20 assuming a turnover on downs. Being that the FG left them still down 4 points I’d have thought a attempt at a TD would have been wiser. If they were down 9 the call makes a ton more sense. In short, yeah you’re right, but it’s not quite the worst decision a coach has made this season.

They did get the ball back with over 2 minutes to play and fucked it up so the point is moot.

I’ll give you this Omni, when you’re wrong, you’re spectacularly wrong. Here’s a link for all you Raven haters out there.

I was going to post something like that myself, at least it appears to be confined to AFC North divisional games.

Anyone think Urlacher might’ve missed the tackle because he was afraid to go full out after a QB, with all the BS can’t-touch-the-QB calls they’ve made this year?

Last week, a Browns D-lineman hit Ben pretty hard, and then raised his arms up in the air as if to say “I let up! Don’t call a BS penalty on me!” and Ben stumbled and recovered. A similar thing happened in that Giants game, too. I think D-lineman aren’t following through with sacks because roughing the passer penalties are called ridiculously. There was a pretty horrible one tonight against Green Bay, too.