Here’s the picks for this week.
Sunday, Nov. 19
KANSAS CITY 9½ Oakland 35½
Huard is out and Green is in. I don’t buy into this not losing your job to injury crap, you go with who best helps you win. I think I’d have stuck with Huard even with his poor game last week. I’m wagering there’ll be a little rust on Trent and against a decent Oakland defense 9½ points is more than I want to give. The completely inept Raider offense doesn’t instill much confidence and a 13-3 final is possible, but the Chiefs defense sometimes tackles poorly. I think the bad PR with Moss, Walters and Shell will work to galvanize this unit for just one game.
The Pick: Raiders, Under
Indianapolis 1 DALLAS 49
Somehow this is the game of the week according to the pundits. Again with the NFC East pimping. The Cowboys are 5-4 with a rookie QB. I’m not buying the hype. I do like Julius Jones to have a big day but it won’t be enough to hang with Manning and the crew. Lets not forget that Romo’s two good starts were against terrible, terrible teams with crap defenses. The Colts aren’t great on D but they are measurably better than the Cards and Skins and with Sanders back they are better than the numbers indicate. I think Freeney will break out with a huge game against that porous pass protection and make Romo look like a rook.
The Pick: Colts, Over
NEW ORLEANS 3½ Cincinnati 51
The Bengals are cooked. They might put up some points in the dome but they simply cannot tackle and aren’t disciplined enough to stop the inventive play calling of the Saints. Cincy struggles to stop the pass and the way that Payton uses Bush out of the backfield only puts more pressure on a weak secondary. If the Bengals are going to have a chance they need to run the ball effectively and with the Saints giving up 5 yards per carry they should have some success. In short, we’re looking at a shootout here. The Saints have been better in all facets this season and playing at home I expect them to continue to do so.
The Pick: Saints, Over
Pittsburgh 3½ CLEVELAND 37½
It looks like Droughns is either out or gimpy and the already weak Browns running game will get even worse because of it. That puts tons of pressure on Frye and the passing game. They’ve had trouble protecting the QB and I think the Steelers will have success in pressuring him with the running game taken out of play. Most of the statistical categories favor the Steelers in the head-to-head with he notable exception of special teams. A huge reason for the Steelers troubles are turnovers and lack of ability to flip the field punting and returning punts. The Browns are good at both and should have an advantage in field position. I’m inclined to think that won’t be enough to overcome the disparity in the two teams running games, but if Big Ben doesn’t get his INTs under control versus a very good Browns pass defense Willie Parker won’t be able to win it on his own. The Steelers are winless on the road this season but I think they’ll get one under their belt here out of sheer pride.
The Pick: Steelers, Under
PHILADELPHIA 13 Tennessee 43½
Thirteen points is too many to give at this point of the season. The Titans have shown flashes of late and should have gotten a win last week against the Ravens. The Eagles match up really well against the Titans on offense and should move the ball at will against a team that struggles tackling. The Titans have had most of their better efforts at home and going to Philly could be especially tough. I think getting Haynesworth back on defense will be important allowing the Titans to clog the middle and force Westbrook to the edges. There’s little doubt that the Eagles are going to will this game in my mind but I’ve consistently been getting burned by big spreads and the way the Titans have been improving is enough reason for me to go on a limb to take the points here.
The Pick: Titans, Over
BALTIMORE 4 Atlanta 40½
Atlanta is sliding very quickly. Vick was the man a few weeks back and as of late he’s looked like a lost rookie. Compounding issue is the fact that the Falcons running game has utterly and completely disappeared over the last month of games. The Falcons aren’t left with much when they lose that and it makes their defense look pretty pedestrian when they don’t have a early lead to force opponents into being predictable. There’s almost no reason to think they’ll figure these issues out against the talented Ravens defense at home. Ray Lewis is probably not going to play but he’s not the one-man wrecking crew he used to be. It’s worth noting that the Ravens have given up over 20 points in each of their last 4 games but I just can’t see any reason why Vick would suddenly turn it around in a tough environment like Baltimore.
The Pick: Ravens, Over
CAROLINA 6½ St Louis 44½
This just feels like it could be one of those head scratcher games. Everything points to a Panther win. It’s at home and the Rams have lost 4 straight. The Panthers look to be getting in sync and the Rams lost Pace for the season last week. Of course, that means the Rams will probably win this game.
The Pick: Rams, Under
HOUSTON 2½ Buffalo 36½
It’s just weird to see the Texans favored. This can’t have happened more than a half dozen times ever. Is everyone forgetting that the Bills just took the Colts to the wire in Indy? The Texans have played a few close games as of late too and took down the Jags last week but the Bills just strike me as a better team. A-Train has picked up where McGahee left off and this Bills team has played a murderous schedule so far. They do need a win here though, the moral victories don’t count for much when you get whipped by a terrible Texans team. I don’t think they will, unless the Texans pass rush really comes alive this should be a chance for the Bills offense to come alive.
The Pick: Bills, Under
New England 6 GREEN BAY 45
We need to figure out what the hell the deal is with the Pats. They can’t seem to run the ball consistently and their defense has been unable to pressure the QB. This week that head to Lambeau to face the Pack who have been playing pretty well of late. The big edge for the Pats is how terrible the Packers secondary is, however with that patchwork WR corps and the possibly banged up Brady it’s unclear if they’ll do much to exploit it. The Pack do have an above average pass rush and could cause problems. Still, these are the Pats and I just don’t see them losing 3 straight games, especially to this Pack team. I really don’t like the thought of facing the Pats at home next week if they lose this one, so lets pull for them here.
The Pick: Pats, Under
TAMPA BAY 3 Washington 33½
Washington really sucks. Portis is done and they have a QB making his first ever start, and in seeing his first ever action of any kind. Can you explain why the Bucs are only getting the typical homefield 3 points? Seems like a gimme to me.
The Pick: Bucs, Under
Chicago 6½ NY JETS 38
Da Bears. Last week they made the Meadowlands their house and I think they’ll do it all over again here. The Jets upset of the Pats has everyone thinking they are the real deal and I’m not ready to buy it. Mangini had an excellent game plan and Pennington’s ability to get the ball out of his hands so quickly goes a long ways towards keeping a defense on it’s heels but the Bears have the speed to shut down those quick slants and passes over the middle. The biggest weakness on the Bears is their inability to shut down the run and the Jets lack a real threat. Of course it all comes down to the Bears ability to protect Grossman. If he’s pressured he makes mistakes and when he’s got room to step up he’ll cut you to ribbons. The Jets did a fantastic job of pressuring Brady last week but they haven’t been doing it consistently this season. The Jets rush defense is really poor and the Bears were dedicated to the run last week and they will likely do the same this week. If they do it should really put the breaks on the Jets pass rush and it should keep them out of obvious passing situations.
The Pick: Bears, Under
MIAMI 3½ Minnesota 33½
The Miami defense is really coming into it’s own right now and this Vikings team can’t do anything productive on offense. I expect Jason Taylor to have another huge day. The Vikes defense is pretty solid in it’s own right and it will be a struggle for the Dolphins to move the ball consistently with Harrington at the helm. Clearly the Dolphins are on the upswing and they tend to really play well at home late in the season, the exact opposite is true of the Vikes. They were only able to muster 17 points at home to the awful Packer defense, they’ll be lucky to get 10 this week.
The Pick: Dolphins, Under
ARIZONA 2 Detroit 45½
The Lions are that team that’s going to play spoiler for the rest of the season. Early in the year people were predicting that the Lions offense would start to gel in the second half and I think now’s when it’ll get underway. Nothing has been going right for the Cards and this week will be no different. Expect a huge day from Williams and Jones. The Lions are also getting some players back on defense which will make for a long day for Edge and Leinart.
The Pick: Lions, Over
Seattle 3½ SAN FRANCISCO 43
Alexander is back and that’s all I need to know. I’d have gone with the Seahawks anyways and the addition of the stud RB only makes it an easier choice. The Niners have been playing some great defense and they’ll make a game of it but they struggle too much in the redzone offensively, you know Alexander will fix that problem on the other side.
The Pick: Seahwaks, Under
DENVER 2½ San Diego 42
This is going to be an exciting game. Really looking forward to seeing LDT face this defense. I think he’ll have a solid outing and Rivers has done a great job of keeping everyone involved in the passing game. Gates had a solid game last week finally and he’ll need to get onto River’s radar if they are going to exploit this Denver D. Plummer on the otherhand has been awful and this Chargers defense is too good for them to win by running the ball alone. They are missing Merriman and Castillo which will make stopping the Bronco rush much more difficult. They gave up 41 points last week to a Bengals team that had struggled on offense and 25 the week before to the Browns. San Diego hasn’t won a game in Denver in this century and Martyball might rear it’s ugly head this week. I love the Chargers, but I think the matchups favor the Broncos if they can get anything at all from Plummer.
The Pick: Broncos, Over
Monday, Nov. 20
JACKSONVILLE 3½ NY Giants 38½
Which Jags team will show up this week? I want to pick the Giants here but after seeing how totally helpless their pass rush was last week and how poorly they tackled I just can’t do it. Eli looked lost out there and the Coughlin was simply outcoached. The Giants are probably talented enough to score some points against the Jags solid defense but that defense was just awful. The Bears aren’t exactly a juggernaut and they couldn’t even slow them down in the second half last week. When Taylor gets rolling he’s tough to stop and if Gerrard has as much time in the pocket as Grossman did he should be pretty productive. The Jags can lay an egg at any time, but the Giants don’t have the personnel to force them into big mistakes this week.
The Pick: Jags, Under