It’s week 10, essentially the halfway point in the season since everyone has their bye weeks out of the way and have played 8 games. Looking at the board there’s really only one big game this week and it should draw all the attention. The Chargers-Bengals game is nice, Eagles-Skins will get some attention because of the media, Pats-Jets is a mismatch but is still a divisional battle at the top of the AFC east. Seahawks-Rams could be critical but both teams are off their games. In short, this week is all about Bears-Giants.
I’m going to change things up a little and break down the Sunday Night game first. Usually I do the late games last, but there’s two very good reasons I’m switching it up. The first I outlined above, it’s really the most interesting game by a wide margin, and I will be attending this game, entering hostile territory decked out in the Orange and Navy.
It’s late and I’m flying out tomorrow so the bulk of the picks will be quickie style. Sorry, but I need to sleep a little tonight.
Sunday, Nov. 12
NY GIANTS PK Chicago 38½
The Giants are notably without all of their best defensive players. Much to Ellis Dee’s chagrin. The Bears are coming to town with a chip on their shoulder, and my loud ass mouth behind them, and really have to show they are for real. It’s tough to think about a 7-1 team with an insurmountable divisional lead playing a critical game in week 10 but this is where the Bears are at. After this game they play 2 more tough road games and could be in trouble if they lose all three. Getting this first one after that bad loss will do wonders for their confidence. After the egg they laid in Arizona they came back with a nearly perfect performance. I’m going to wager the same thing happens here. The Giants running game scares the crap out of me but with Burress gimpy and Toomer out they should be able to crowd the line just enough to keep Tiki under wraps. Frankly, the outcome rests solely on the Giants ability to convert on third down. Tiki is the best at it and we’ll have to hope Urlacher is healthy enough to shadow him and limit that. Grossman should have plenty of time and the Giants secondary isn’t very good. So long as he’s not pressured he’s deadly. I think the Bears get two or three big plays in the air this week and the “experts” will be back on the Grossman bandwagon.
The Pick: Bears, Under
Kansas City 1 MIAMI 40
The Dolphins game last week was a fluke. LJ goes huge this week again.
The Pick: Chiefs, Under
JACKSONVILLE 10½ Houston 37½
Jags are getting it together again and they still can dominate at home. Gerrard has to defend his starting position and it will be at the expense of the Texans.
The Pick: Jags, Over
San Diego 1½ CINCINNATI 47½
Chargers are beat up badly on D and haven’t played well on the road. The Bengals are on the verge of imploding. I think the Bengals D is the weakest unit in the game and with LDT on the field that will be more than just a line in the box score.
The Pick: Chargers. Over
ATLANTA 9 Cleveland 41
The Browns will keep it close. The Falcons fattened up on weak teams and I see a lot of similarities between the Browns and the Lions. The Falcons still win, but not by double digits.
The Pick: Browns, Over
Baltimore 7 TENNESSEE 38
Ravens defense tears Vince Young apart. Without a formidable running game there’s almost no hope for the Titans to sustain a drive. The Ravens will have awesome field position all game and it will so on the scoreboard.
The Pick: Ravens, Under
INDIANAPOLIS 11½ Buffalo 45
Yup, the Colts are good. Manning is real good. The Bills are coached by Dick Jauron. Those are all the relevant facts.
The Pick: Colts, Under
PITTSBURGH 4½ New Orleans 45
This is a silly spread. In what way have the Steelers earned the right to be favored? In a way, I can understand the logic. The Saints were partially exposed and Reggie Bush has disappeared. Still Brees is the real deal and they’ll score points. The Steelers players sound like they are on the verge of quitting and as long as Ben struggles on third down so will the Steelers.
The Pick: Saints, Under
PHILADELPHIA 7 Washington 43
McNabb will have a huge day against that pathetic Redskins pass defense. Nuff said.
The Pick: Eagles, Over
MINNESOTA 5 Green Bay 39½
The Vikings couldn’t score on the SDMB intramural team. I like Favre to overcome his historic troubles in the dome versus this inept offense. Call it the moveable object versus the resistible force, I like the movable Pack D to do just enough.
The Pick: Packers, Over
NEW ENGLAND 10½ NY Jets 39½
Think the Pats will let down after last weeks poor performance? I doubt it, I think Belichick goes back to basics and Maroney has a ton of carries. They won’t get cute with screens to Faulk this week and the Jets will have fewer than 60 total rushing yards on the day.
The Pick: Pats, Under
DETROIT 6 San Francisco 45
Lions are getting it together, just like all the experts predicted. Martz will have a field day versus this hopeless 49ers pass defense.
The Pick: Lions, Over
Denver 9 OAKLAND 33½
Somehow these guys played a close game last time and it’s in Oakland this time. Of course the image of Moss and company frustrated on the bench is a pretty strong argument against this team getting anything going. I’ll give the points, lightning won’t strike twice (meaning the Raiders covering).
The Pick: Broncos, Over
SEATTLE 3½ St. Louis 43½
The Rams are pretty lost but I’m not convinced the Seahawks can do enough without Hasselbeck or Alexander. The Rams cannot stop anyone on defense and that’s almost always a recipe for disaster, on the road that counts double.
The Pick: Seahwaks, Under
Dallas 7 ARIZONA 43
The Cards suck. Romo and the Boys should have won last week and this should be a double digit spread. Lets not over think this one.
The Pick: Cowboys, Under
Monday, Nov. 13
CAROLINA 9½ Tampa Bay 37
The Bucs are winless on the road this season and have struggled mightily to score points in recent weeks. Neither team’s defense is especially impressive but the matchups favor Steve Smith and the Panthers pretty heavily. In their first game this season the Panthers squeaked out a close win on the road but they committed 3 turnovers and Delhomme was playing much worse than he has been lately. Gradkowski has kept the mistakes to a minimum, great for a rookie, but he’s also struggling to move the ball downfield. Both teams are terrible on third down offensively and both are very good defensively, that should add up to a low scoring affair. The Panthers haven’t won a single game this season by more than 8 points and have suffered a pair of tough losses prior to last weeks bye. The odds probably favor the Bucs to cover that spread. The Panthers will likely win the game but I don’t see a double digit margin, however my gut is telling me that John Fox will have used the bye week and the MNF hype to get his team clicking offensively. They will be better on the ground and in turn will be better on third down.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
OMNI Picks: Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Bears, Lions
