So I wake up today and flick on the TV to see the Falcons playing the Bengals in HD. I panicked thinking I’d forgotten there was a Saturday game today. In my tired and hungover haze I forgot that these teams played last week. There’s not really a point to this but I felt the need to share it with you.
Incidentally, did you see the Illini-Buckeyes game? I’ve never been big on moral victories but damn if that didn’t feel good. The Illini might just amount to something in a year or two. I forget what it’s like to actually have a college team to cheer for.
On with this weeks picks.
Sunday, Nov. 5
**ST. LOUIS 2 Kansas City 48 **
Here are a couple of teams that have consistently over or under performed. Against one opponent they look great and against another they lay an egg, often contrary to what you’d expect against a given opponent. They are both two teams that play well at home and terrible on the road. This week that favors St Louis in a big way. However they are off a game in which San Diego, a team with a very similar attack, gouged them for 280 yards on the ground. Toss in the fact that Damon Huard could be auditioning to be the permanent starter in his last certain start. He’s looked golden so far and another multi-TD, 300+ yard performance might keep Green on the bench. (Note: Herm is a idiot and insanely loyal so Green will probably start regardless of what Huard does, but he might not know this and has every reason to be perfect here.) KC has their defensive flaws too though, and the secondary is exhibit A. This plays to the Rams assets and both offenses are liable to explode. I’ve been getting burned by Huard and the Chiefs repeatedly this season, this week will probably be no different. Still, I’ll take those points and fantasy stud LJ to control this game. Though it might not be a bad week to start Steven Jackson and Mark Bulger either.
The Pick: Chiefs, Over
**BALTIMORE 3 Cincinnati 40½ **
So CJ calls out Ray-Ray. Now, that’s a pretty dumb thing to do and Ray was pretty entertaining in his response but I can’t help but wish CJ would get a clean shot at him on a crackback. I know I’m not the only one. I waffled on backing Billick last week because it was his first week back with the reins in his hands and he made me look dumb. He got the running game going somewhat by sheer doggedness and McNair pieced together a solid game. Cincy’s defense took a beating last week versus the Falcons but there’s only one Vick. The Bengals have had success against the Ravens in recent years but those were against a banged up version missing some defensive studs. I’m expecting a low scoring affair, the Bengals will make a few plays but so will the Ravens defense. The Bengals might have the best offense the Ravens have seen so far this year so it will be a good litmus test for them. Logically I think the Ravens are the pick here, but my gut tells me that Marvin Lewis has something up his sleeve for Billick and I’m not convinced the Ravens are for real yet.
The Pick: Bengals, Under
**N.Y. GIANTS 13 Houston 43 **
What the hell happened last week? The game wasn’t on TV but as I’m sitting there in the bar watching the crawl I see stats for Sage Rosenfels. Turns out Carr was benched immediately after I write a prediction highlighting the quietly impressive season Carr is having. Well, I’ll be damned if get burned by these guys again. Especially in the Meadowlands in the cold. Wali Lundy will have to be a horse to get them in this game, and that’s not likely. The real risk is that the Giants will play conservative and not cover, but Coughlin strikes as the kind of asshole who’ll run up the score.
The Pick: Giants, Under
**JACKSONVILLE 10 Tennessee 37½ **
Leftwich is going to be riding the pine for the indefinite future on the heels of a not-so-impressive 10-17, 87 yard performance from Gerrard. The Jags ran for 200+ yards last week against a decent Eagles defense and it could indicate a sea change for Del Rio’s gameplans. If they are going to be intent on pounding out victories on the ground they will have some real success against the Titans and their 31st run defense. Further helping the cause is the suspension of Pacman Jones leaving the Titans a man short versus those big WRs of the Jags. This will be the best defense (though they’ve not looked so hot as of late) that Vince Young will have faced and you should probably expect a few bad decisions to hurt his team. I’ll give the points, especially in Jacksonville.
The Pick: Jags, Under
**Dallas 3 WASHINGTON 42 **
I really want to pick the Redskins here. Romo was good last week but he’ll be playing in a tough environment on the road in FedEx field. It’s a perfect recipe for a huge letdown game. All the publicity and popsicle sucking he’s been getting this week has to have taken him off his focus. Add in the fact that the Redskins are coming off a bye week and have had ample time to dissect his game to find weaknesses. All that makes for a compelling case….but the Redskins suck. Specifically, their pass defense really sucks and probably won’t confound Romo. And the straw that breaks the camels back is the injury report which includes just about every meaningful player on the Redskin roster. I’m sure a few of them will be out and I expect the Cowboys defense to dominate the game from whistle to whistle, regardless of a Romo meltdown or not.
The Pick: Cowboys, Under
**BUFFALO 3½ Green Bay 40½ **
The Packers are probably the sexiest pick on the board this week. Every pundit I’ve seen is picking Favre to get them back to .500 starting a cavalcade of “Brett is Back” headlines. I’m not buying it. The Packers are without some key offensive players, Morency and Miree the biggest losses. Jennings might still be out as well. The Bills have a legitimate homefield advantage and the recent string of losses they’ve suffered were against a couple good teams. The Packers defense is pretty bad and McGahee and Losman could have good days this week. They have made some substantive changes over the bye week to improve their blocking and offense. I think the Pack’s rejuvenation will take a big hit this week.
The Pick: Bills, Over
**New Orleans 1 TAMPA BAY 38½ **
Sports Guy trotted out a stat that says the Bucs are 14-2-1 in their last 17 games as a home dog. Pretty compelling stuff, don’t you think? It tells you that opponents can sometimes be rattled in this environment and that the southern Florida heat might have an impact. Or else it tells you that stats can be really anomalous. The Saints shouldn’t be caught off guard by anything, these teams being so familiar and all. One has to wonder if the bloom is off the rose with them. Bush and Deuce are nursing injuries but both are expected to play against the Bucs NFC worst run defense. Gradkowski hasn’t recaptured the rhythm he showed in his first start, but they’ve won their last two home games against a pair of really good teams. I’m losing faith in the Saints outside the dome and with questions in the backfield they could struggle, but that Tampa run defense is too porous to trust.
The Pick: Saints, Over
**Atlanta 4½ DETROIT 47 **
Why is this spread so small? Hasn’t everyone been talking about how Vick is starting to click in that offense? The Lions passing game will have some success against a iffy Falcon secondary and their defense isn’t going to get completely embarrassed but every other measure favors the Falcons heavily. Most importantly it just feels like a blowout in the making.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
**CHICAGO 13 Miami 37½ **
Do I like the Bears in this one? I’ll pretend I didn’t hear that….you should be ashamed.
The Pick: Bears, Over
**Minnesota 5 SAN FRANCISCO 42½ **
The 49ers count on being able to run the ball for success and against the Vikings stout run defense that simply won’t happen. It’s a recipe for a very lopsided game. The Vikings offense hasn’t exactly been dominant this season but in San Fran they’ll do enough to win the game.
The Pick: Vikings, Under
**SAN DIEGO 12½ Cleveland 41½ **
Last week I did a little self analysis and determined that I’ve been for to conservative in my picks. I scan the board and realized I’ve gone with a string of 8 straight favorites to cover. Not a good sign, but I can’t in good conscience see any reason to put money on those dogs. Each faces a tough test and in most cases the points they are giving are totally manageable. I mention this now because I’m feeling like I need to make a couple reaches. This game’s large spread is the type of game you take that opportunity on, but still I have a really tough time betting against the Chargers at home. I mean look at the way they played last week. The Browns have a poor run defense and LDT is a good as they come. There’s a glimmer of hope in the fact that Merriman will be starting his suspension this week and it’s conceivable that his loss will throw this defense off it’s game allowing the Browns to muster enough points to cover. The Browns have only had one loss by more than 10 points this season. Frankly I’m just talking myself into it and I don’t believe it for a second. But sometimes you just have to roll the dice that this will be the one game closer than it should be.
The Pick: Browns, Over
**PITTSBURGH 2½ Denver 37 **
This is asinine. The Steelers have been terrible and they are favored over a dominant Denver squad? Here’s this week’s head scratcher. Last week it was the Jets game and we saw how that turned out, I’m hoping for better today.
The Pick: Broncos, Under
**NEW ENGLAND 3 Indianapolis 48 **
Here’s the big game of the week. It’s going to be exciting. Pats fans are just rabid that people are picking the Colts and forgetting that Belichick has basically owned the Colts. Manning got over the Foxboro monkey last season but he had a decent defense then. This year they can’t stop anyone made all the worse but injuries to a handful of key guys. That plays right into the hands of the Pats power running attack, it should be a good week to have Maroney in your fantasy lineup. Last week Manning pretty much single-handedly willed his team to victory over a Broncos team that had a similar favorable match-up. He’ll have to do one better this week because the Pats aren’t saddled with the likes of Jake Plummer. The guy they have is halfway decent you know. The irony would be fierce if the game came down to a Viniateri FG to decide it. I don’t think it’ll be that close, though as a viewer I hope I’m wrong.
The Pick: Patriots, Over
Monday, Nov. 6
SEATTLE 7½ Oakland 37½
This game isn’t going to be very interesting. How the hell did the Raiders get so many marquee games this season? I know a few people drank the kool-aid and figured them for 8 wins or so, but I’m not sure that warrants this may primetime spots. The Bears are practically getting ignored by the schedule makers and they had ever reason to expect success. Did they really think Aaron Brooks was the answer? Anyways, the Seahawks really need to get on track. The Raiders have played much better of the past couple weeks and have been hanging tough. Their offense has accomplished next to nothing though. Against a Hasselbeck and Alexander-less Seattle team they should be able to hang close. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the force it was last year and if Wallace makes a couple mistakes thing could get very dicey for the Raiders. I’m inclined to think the Seahawks will win this game but the spread makes me hesitate, were it in Oakland it’d be an easy choice but in Seattle it could be a blow out. Frankly I have no idea. When in doubt, take the points I suppose.
The Pick: Raiders, Under