I don’t think Shanahan’s strategy is to be “impressive.” I think he’s got his offense playing extremely conservative ball and letting the defense keep a check on the other team. Does Plummer et al need to score more than 13 points when the other team is held to 3? Sure, as a fan, I’d love to see 40 point blow outs, but they’re got the job done against 4 good-to-difficult teams (I know, the Chiefs and the Raiders can hardly be called such, but with the rivalry, they always bring their absolute best game, even if they can’t swing it any other time. And Baltimore always gives the Broncos fits. I dread Baltimore games, I really do. Especially night games).
I think the Broncos will just go on quietly winning games, like they did last season, and find themselves in the AFC Championship again…
Sorry for waiting to the last minute, it’s been a busy couple days. Hope everyone is still following along.
Sunday, Oct. 22 San Diego 5 KANSAS CITY 41
The Chiefs have been pretty unpredictable as of late, posting a couple strong showings and a couple real pigs. They are at home where they are always tough, but LJ hasn’t been playing up to form and Damon Huard is starting to play like Damon Huard. That defense isn’t very good and they simply don’t tackle well. Bad tackling and LDT is a recipe for a really ugly score. Of course the San Diego defense is one of the 3 best in the league to boot. This has the makings of a real ass whupping, nevermind that it’s in Arrowhead. Plus, maybe LDT is looking to prove he’s always the #1 overall RB.
The Pick: Chargers, Under
Jacksonville 9½ HOUSTON 40½
After the last two weeks these big spreads are starting to make me leery. When the Raiders are covering against the Broncos on the road you know it’s time to think twice about laying double digits. I’m going to shamelessly steal a gimmick The Sports Guy introduced in today’s column.
The upshot to this is that the Jags, going on the road with a ton of injuries including Matt Jones, Marcus Stroud and possibly Leftwich, aren’t a gimme here. They might come up short in the game, let alone against that spread. The Texans have some serious problems. Their offensive line is really poor and they can’t stop anyone on defense. They do have the ability to score points in the passing game. We have to ask ourselves how much the Jags will be hamstrung by their injuries and how conservative they are apt to be if Leftwich sits. We know Gerrard can play pretty darn well, which should be heartening. There’s plenty of reason to talk yourself into taking the home team and the points. Still, I can’t shake the fact that the Jags have a dominant pass rush versus that aforementioned shaky line and they have big athletic WRs to exploit a pathetic secondary. One thing is for sure, Del Rio doesn’t have a personality which will allow him to hold his team back.
The Pick: Jags, Over
New England 5½ BUFFALO 37½
Which Pats team do you suppose will show up this week? The team that whipped Cincy or the team that got rolled by Denver and squeaked by Buffalo in Foxboro? Pretty much every measurable comparison between these two teams favors the Pats and they’ll be taking this game serious because it will place them at 4-0 within their division, nearly ensuring them another playoff berth. Still, I can’t get past the feeling that this team is flimsy, I feel like a big letdown game against mediocre competition is in their future somewhere. The factors that I keep coming back to are Maroney who’s been a real stud as I predicted, boosting my FFL team all season, and the prospect of JP facing Belichick’s defense. Each is a mismatch for the Bills and I think the Pats have improved since week one and gotten comfortable with their new offense while the league is going to start finding Losman’s shortcomings.
The Pick: Pats, Over
Pittsburgh 2½ ATLANTA 37½
Have the Steelers righted the ship all in one game? I don’t think so, but the Falcons are banged up and have looked pretty vulnerable on defense as of late. If Willie Parker has a game anywhere close to Tiki’s you have to think the Falcons are in deep trouble. The Steelers have some players hobbling on defense, I don’t think they’ll be able to shut down the Falcons running attack. The Steelers haven’t played in a dome yet and I think the atmosphere in the Georgia Dome is going to be a very difficult one for Big Ben. The turf will favor the Falcons misdirection and overall team speed. Really, the Falcons should not be getting points here. Take advantage of irrational Steelers fans and gamblers overreacting to one good game.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
MIAMI 5 Green Bay 40
So, how bad are the Packers? Is it possible that Brett Favre could be reduced to the point where he’s getting out played by Joey Harrington? That’ll be sad for the average football fan. It’ll be downright comical to the typical Bears fan. One thing I feel comfortable with is that this game will be a high scoring affair. Both defenses are bad, the Packers epically so. The Pack are getting Ahman Green back and their passing game has been pretty lively at times. Chambers and Brown have been productive when Culpepper wasn’t imploding and Harrington’s influence should make them more consistent, as freakish as that sounds. 5 points feels like a big number for a 1-5 team. The Dolphins have much more talent than the Packers and even if it’s a disjointed team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team lay an egg here, but I’m guessing the Packer lose a close one late.
The Pick: Dolphins, Over
Philadelphia 5 TAMPA BAY 43
Blow out city. The Eagles have a chip on their shoulder and their defense will make Gradkowski look like a flustered rookie. Westbrook’s injury problems might cost the Eagles a chance at being a Super Bowl contender but it will be enough against a Bucs team that can’t move the ball against solid defenses. Stallworth coming back off injury should give McNabb one more target. The difference will be the Tampa run defense, which lost Booger McFarland, which is awful and got worse. This game won’t be close.
The Pick: Eagles, Under
NY JETS 3½ Detroit 42
My gut had me picking the Lions here. I like their ability to run the ball against the Jets awful D and I would have guessed that the Lions defensive front would control the game, but then Rodgers went and got suspended and Cody got hurt leaving that line with a big hole in the middle. Those losses are just too much for me to pick the Lions to actually get a win on the road. The Jets look to have found a good player in D’Brickashaw and they’ve been able to muster a running game consistent enough to keep Pennington upright. The Lions secondary will be swiss cheese when this game is over with. I think the Lions offense will be very competitive, both the running and passing game will be productive, but as usual they’ll make too many mistakes and give up too many big plays to hope to win the game.
The Pick: Jets, Over
CINCINNATI 3½ Carolina 44½
I’m more than a little surprised the Panthers are underdogs in this game considering how well they’ve played recently and how poorly the Bengals have looked. I’m sticking with that philosophy and picking the Panthers to continue building a case for Steve Smith, MVP. The Bengals defense has issues tackling and will give up some big plays to Delhomme and co. I like Peppers to get 2 or 3 sacks this week and Rudi Johnson will struggle to get on track. The Bengals have been pretty solid at home and I will be surprised to see that offense held down for a third straight week, especially with the Panthers shorthanded secondary, but the Panthers will win a shoot out.
The Pick: Panthers, Over
Denver 4½ CLEVELAND 31½
I know the Broncos offense has sucked but these are the Brownies. No description needed.
The Pick: Broncos, Under
INDIANAPOLIS 9 Washington 48½
Washington is turning into a tough team to handicap. There’ve been moment where they looked really crisp and they’ve got tons of talent. Still, the offensive line is inconsistent and the defense has holes everywhere. They get very little pressure on the QB and can’t defense the run well enough. I like the Colts addition of Booger, he should help out that run defense almost immediately. Considering the Redskins offense lives and dies by Portis’s ability to create 2nd and short he might make this game a tough one for DC fans. I’m willing to give the points even though Indy has a habit of making games closer than they should.
The Pick: Colts, Under
SEATTLE 6½ Minnesota 41½
Minnesota is pretty solid in the secondary but they’ve given up some uncharacteristic big plays so far this season. Bobby Engram is out with Graves’ Disease, can’t say I remember ever seeing that on a police report. Freak illnesses usually lead to disappointing performances by teams, but the Seahawks are deep at WR. Branch will get the chance to step up. The Hawks can’t run for shit but the pass-happy thing seems to be working pretty well at this point. Most importantly, you can’t forget that the Seahawks have one of the few decisive home field advantages. Hutchinson will have the Minny line ready for the noise, but I’m not sure I trust the Vikes WRs and defense to hold up their end of the bargain.
The Pick: Seahawks, Over
Arizona 3 OAKLAND 40
Everyone is giving the Cards up for dead after last weeks terrific collapse. It’s true that Denny can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, during the game anyways, but the guy on the other side of the field makes him look like the second coming of Don Shula. It’s also important to note that Leinart was everything he was in college against a vicious defense. I just don’t think pride will allow the Cards to be embarrassed in primetime two weeks in a row. And trust me, anything short of a 2 TD margin of victory against the Raiders is an embarrassment. Leinart and a underrated Cards D will control this game and they won’t make the mistake of listening to Edge’s whining again.
The Pick: Cards, Under
Monday, Oct. 23 DALLAS 3 NY Giants 45
I’m getting really bored with the constant barrage of NFC east games in primetime. I just couldn’t care less about the Cowboys-Eagles-Redskins-Giants rivalries. The games aren’t usually very exciting, two of the teams always drastically underachieve and the supposed star power is rarely compelling. I can’t recall the last time the Cowboys were involved in a legitimately classic game. Of course this is going to lead to more TO-isms and we’re gonna be forced to see him stride up and down the sidelines all game long. At least there’ll be some Tiki stories to balance that out. I like Tiki, he’s a great RB who’s somehow still underrated, but I’m not sure a big retirement segment during week 7 is all that compelling. Can we talk about it in week 16 please? On the field I like the Giants. They are a better team and the recent breakout game TO had came against the pathetic Texans defense doesn’t carry much weight with me. It’s really beginning to look like he’s lost a step and his absence from practice is still hurting this offense. Bledsoe will rekindle the QB controversy after this poor outing. The Giants run defense will force him to beat them and he will fail.
1:00pm…**Chargers…5…CHIEFS…41…**Chargers are scary good. Under.
1:00pm…**Jaguars…9½…TEXANS…40½…**Texans cover the points. Over.
1:00pm…**Patriots…5½…BILLS…37½…**Patriots complete the sweep. Over.
1:00pm…**Steelers…2½…FALCONS…37½…**Fans could turn on Vick; Steelers and the over.
1:00pm…**DOLPHINS…5…Packers…40…**Packers get a win. Over?
1:00pm…**Eagles…5…BUCS…43…**Eagles will lay a hurtin’ on the hapless Bucs. Over.
1:00pm…**JETS…3½…Lions…42…**Jets easily, and the over.
1:00pm…**BENGALS…3½…Panthers…44½…**Panthers and the under.
4:05pm…**Broncos…4½…BROWNS…31½…**Broncos and the under.
4:15pm…**COLTS…9…Redskins…48½…**Redskins cover the points, and it stays well under.
4:15pm…**SEAHAWKS…6½…Vikings…41½…**Seahawks too good at home, could cover over alone.
4:15pm…**Cards…3…RAIDERS…40…**Raiders get first win as Denny’s head explodes. Under.
8:30pm…**COWBOYS…3…Giants…45…**TO is the Giant killer. Cowboys and the under.
Early Games
Risk 30 for 25 on a 3-team tease: Texans getting 17½, Steelers getting 5½, Panthers getting 11½
Risk 30 for 25 on the Jets
Night tease: Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Chargers getting 3, Eagles getting 3, Giants getting 11
Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Broncos getting 3½, Redskins getting 17, Seahawks getting 1½
Monday Night
If night tease lost, risk 30 for 25 on the Under
Vick called out both his coaches and his wide receivers on (pay cable) national television this week. I see the whole team imploding, a chorus of boo-birds from the increasingly impatient fans, and a Matt Schaub sighting in the fourth quarter.
Totally agreed. This is the perfect game for Philly to practice ball control after rolling up a crapload of points, which they need to do to exorcize the loss to the Giants. Hell, they may even try to make some of their early scoring drives more than 3 plays long. Philly has yet to beat a team with a winning record (I think,) but they demolish scrubs with ease. This one could get ugly. Plus, don’t forget the classic rivalry: the Eagles knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs three (or was it only two?) years in a row, and then the following year the Bucs turned the tables in the NFC CC game and went on to win the Superbowl. I have no doubt the Eagles still carry a grudge, and the payback this week will be dire.
Heh, luckily for Denny Green (and NBC) this is not a primetime game; there is no Sunday nighter because of the World Series. If it were nationally televised I might agree with your assessment, but buried out of sight I think the Cards will fold. (groan) How stupid is it that Green fired the OC because Rackers missed a FG? I guess the buck stopped there.
I agree with the overexposure, but c’mon; this is clearly the best game of the week. Even still, I’m over the Tiki retiring story, and so over the TO drama I can’t even describe it. On the field, Owens has owned the Giants in every game he’s ever played against them, never once losing no matter what team he was on. He singlehandedly won that playoff debacle in 2002 in San Fran by torching Sehorn repeatedly. His inaugural Eagles game was a rout of the Giants. Ever other meeting was a win for him, though not as memorable.
Add the fact that the Giants have possibly the worst record in the league on Monday Night, and I would be stunned if the Giants win. But even in a loss, I see Eli putting together late drives to get close; maybe not within 3, but certainly 11. heh.
Oops, got lazy and assumed that the last listed game was a Sunday Night game. Should have checked the times. Still, I’m sticking with my pick. To way can you pick the Raiders this season, ever.
I’m not sure I agree there. I think the Cincy-Carolina game is the best match up of the week. When they set the schedule you’d have thought they’d favor a LJ vs. LDT game between KC and SD in a divisional rivalry game. Even a Minny-Seattle game for the sake of the Burleson/Hutchinson storylines would be fresher than NY-Dallas for the umpteenth time. Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta looks like a really interesting game and has broader appeal than a NY/Dallas tilt since those teams aren’t loathed by everyone outside their fanbase. I’d love to see a breakdown of how many times NFC divisional games have been in primetime over the last 3 or 4 seasons compared to everyone else.
Cincy is looking weak; they can’t run and their defense is suspect. Steelers-Falcons (which was a phenomenal game last time they played) is hurt by the Falcons getting overpowered last week.
Since realignment, the primetime schedule has been as follows: 20022003200420052006
Here’s the breakdown of how the divisions are represented in primetime broadcasts:
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Net
AFC East 2/7 2/8 3/5 2/5 1/4 10/29 49 14.1%
AFC North 1/6 2/3 1/7 2/6 2/6 8/28 44 12.6%
AFC South 0/6 0/6 0/8 0/7 0/5 0/32 32 9.2%
AFC West 1/6 2/6 2/6 3/6 3/4 11/28 50 14.4%
Total 4/25 6/23 6/26 7/24 6/19 29/117 175 50.3%
NFC East 3/5 2/8 4/3 3/5 3/7 15/28 58 16.7%
NFC North 2/5 3/2 0/8 3/3 1/6 9/24 42 12.1%
NFC South 1/4 1/7 1/4 1/4 2/3 6/22 34 9.8%
NFC West 3/5 1/4 1/5 1/4 2/5 8/23 39 11.2%
Total 9/19 7/21 6/20 8/16 8/21 38/97 173 49.7%
The first number is how many divisional games were played on MNF, and the second number is how many times a team was on MNF against a non-divisional opponent. So total appearances would be twice the first number plus the second.
Interesting that overall the two most-shown divisions are the AFC West and the NFC East, with the AFC East being slightly behind the AFC West. Let’s see–all there really has been these last six years with the AFC East has been the Patriots. The NFC East, although I agree with Omniscent that there are too many games played, does have some big fanbases and some of the better teams in the league the last few years. Heck, the Eagles alone could have tipped the balance some. As for the AFC West, I can’t complain as long as the Broncos are playing.
I just got cut out of the 38-38 Pitt-ATL game with 3 minutes to go because of NFL regulations… <anger>
Crazy day so far… 62 yard FG fitting in just right with how things are going.
re: the prime-time appearances and the AFC East, you only have the Pats in that division, but you have a five-year period in which they were the defending champs in three of those years. That’ll get you some prime-time appearances.
Let me just say…Fuck the NFL and their 4:15 blackout policy.
They can’t show it live but they can have the guys in the studio giving commentary and then showing the clip of the play 5 seconds later. Fucking stupid…
Crap, I mistankenly labeled the numbers as MNF appearances, when I meant primetime. They include all scheduled Monday, Sunday, Saturday and Thursday appearances. (Which excludes the flex games this season and the Giants-Saints last season.)
Don’t sell the AFC East short; they were the best division in football for two years running in 2003 and 2004. And IIRC, in 2002 they boasted a division without a single team below .500. (9-7, 9-7, 9-7, 8-8.) Back when The Chad was new, Bledsoe was throwing for 4000+ yards, the Patriots were winning Superbowls and Ricky Williams hadn’t yet flaked, the AFC East was a powerhouse. They only fell from grace last year, really.
During the offseason, the Browns signed the best free agent, the best center in the league, LeCharles Bentley. Being from Cleveland, he was overjoyed at fulfilling a lifetime dream of playing for his hometown team. He was happy to be here, and we were happy to have him.
During the very first play of the first scrimmage in training camp, he had a non-contact injury where he just fell over, and tore his patellar tendon in his knee. We were told that patellar tendons were just very rare, freak injuries.
Fast forward a few months.
Gary Baxter (another high priced free agent) trips and falls in coverage. Non-contact, no one fell on him or anything. It didn’t even look to me like anything was wrong - it looked totally normal.
Today we found out that somehow he tore patellar tendons… IN BOTH KNEES at once.
Also
“Browns center LeCharles Bentley is believed to have been hospitalized for a staph infection that set him back in his rehab from a torn patellar tendon.”
“Coach Romeo Crennel said on Friday that Bentley is making slow progress and that he might not be back in time for the start of next season.”
Throw in Courtney Brown’s (#1 overall pick) 4 or 5 career threatning injuries, Winslow’s (6th overall) 3 (leg broke in 2 places, motorcycle accident that ripped everything the hell up, and a staph infection that caused him to lose 50 pounds), Edwards’ (3rd overall) non-contact torn ACL, other freak injuries, and leading the league in IR for 3 years there (2002-2004, I think, not sure though). We even hired an extremely well regarded training staff last year. If I was a less rational person, I’d be thinking curse.
Those staph infections are rampant in the NFL and scary. I know the Giants lost a couple guys to IR from that in the last couple seasons. Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel did a piece on them, and that shit is freaky. One of the ways they spread is damp towels and/or locker room floors. Just look at a typical bench with 100 towels slung over the back and imagine how difficult it would be to prevent “towel sharing” when a unit (offense/defense/teams) comes off the field.
The Browns do seem to be snakebit, though I would point out that the Giants led the league in IR in 2004, and may have in 2003 as well. (That being how they were in position to trade for Eli in the first place.)
I’m not sure why this flew over my head when I first responded, but the Giants have the largest fanbase in the league. They were by far the most-watched team in the NFL in 2005, with Philly being a distant second, (cite) so it’s only natural to think that a division rivalry involving the Giants would draw better ratings than one in the West.
And it delivered. This MNF broadcast was not only the highest rated MNF broadcast this year – topping even the Saints return to New Orleans which was a division matchup of undefeated teams – but it was the highest-ever cable-TV rating.
Certainly not the highest MNF broadcast ever, or even close, as ESPN is only in 83% of households. But still, there’s no way a KC-SD matchup would have done that. The trend seems to be increasing over time, though, so that claim isn’t exactly unassailable. ESPN’s MNF seems to break new ground in the ratings each week.
In googling for a cite, I ran across an [url=]interesting article discussing the $1.1 billion price tag ESPN shells out for MNF this year:
A quick calculation shows that above and beyond advertising revenue, the subscriber fees alone bring in over $3 billion per year. Wow.
Early Games 27 **Chargers…5…**30 **CHIEFS…**57 **41…**Chargers are scary good. Under.
.7 **Jaguars…9½.**27 **TEXANS…**34 **40½…**Texans cover the points. Over. 28 **Patriots…5½…**6 **BILLS…**34 **37½…**Patriots complete the sweep. Over. 38 **Steelers…2½.**41 **FALCONS…**79 **37½…**Fans could turn on Vick; Steelers and the over. 24 **DOLPHINS…5…**34 **Packers…**58 **40…**Packers get a win. Over? 21 **Eagles…5…**23 **BUCS…**44 **43…**Eagles will lay a hurtin’ on the hapless Bucs. Over. 31 **JETS…3½.**24 **Lions…**55 **42…**Jets easily, and the over. 17 **BENGALS…3½.**14 **Panthers.**31 **44½…**Panthers and the under. Late Games 17 **Broncos…4½…**7 **BROWNS…**24 **31½…**Broncos and the under. 36 **COLTS…9…**22 **Redskins.**58 **48½…**Redskins cover the points, and it stays well under. 13 **SEAHAWKS…6½.**31 **Vikings…**44 **41½…**Seahawks too good at home, could cover over alone.
.9 **Cards…3…**22 **RAIDERS…**31 **40…**Raiders get first win as Denny’s head explodes. Under. Night Games 22 **COWBOYS…3…**36 **Giants…**58 **45…**TO is the Giant killer. Cowboys and the under.
Spread Picker Picks
5 Texans WIN
4 Chiefs WIN
4 Dolphins Loss
4 Lions Loss
4 Panthers WIN
4 Seahawks Loss
2 Redskins Loss
2 Steelers Loss
1 Bills Loss
1 Broncos WIN
1 Bucs WIN
1 Raiders WIN
The spread picker nailed its only best bet, but went a pedestrian 6-6 overall. Even worse, half of those wins were on crappy 1-star picks. Meanwhile, I went 10-6 in the early games, 5-3 in the late games, and an awful 0-2 in the Monday nighter. Not great, but 15-11 overall is at least above .500, which is something the spread picker can’t claim.
Early Games
Risk 30 for 25 on a 3-team tease: Texans getting 17½, Steelers getting 5½, Panthers getting 11½
Risk 30 for 25 on the Jets
Night tease: Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Chargers getting 3, Eagles getting 3, Giants getting 11
Huh. I would never have thought that the Chargers in a tease would be the only thing that missed out of seven selections. Unfortunately, going 6-1 ended up negative, with a net of -5 in the early games.
Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Broncos getting 3½, Redskins getting 17, Seahawks getting 1½
Yet again a single pick lost, and yet again it was a head-scratcher. Seahawks getting teased at home, and they didn’t even come close. WTF? Now down 60 on the day.
Monday Night
If night tease lost, risk 30 for 25 on the Under
Not my best showing, down 90 for the week. There’s always next week…er…tomorrow.
Standings
This week: 15-11 (-90)
Season: 105-90-3, -20 (-2.86 per week)
Spread Picker: 32-31-2; Best Bets: 7-3
Sunday, OCT. 29 TENNESSEE 3 Houston 41½
Both teams have shown signs of life. I think the most impressive statistic of the season so far is David Carr’s 97.4 QB rating and his 70.5 completion percentage. That’s pretty good for any QB, but for a QB on a crappy team with no running game and awful pass protection who’s always coming from behind it’s downright otherworldly. Last week the Texans pass rush actually looked effective against a solid Jags team and in turn it helped the pathetic secondary. The Titans share many of the same problems as the Texans and Vince Young’s mobility helps disguise his inexperience to a degree. Against poor defenses he can make some plays. The primary advantage the Titans have is Travis Henry’s recent resurgence. They look to be finding a consistent running game, Vince can get some of the credit for that because he forces the defense to use a spy to defend him on the bootleg and play action. The Titans porous run defense is the deciding factor for me, they can’t be expected to keep the one-dimensional Texans one-dimensional and that’s going to lead to a big game for Carr and Johnson.
The Pick: Texans, Over
PHILADELPHIA 7½ Jacksonville 40
Anyone have any idea what happened to the Jags last week? It couldn’t have just been Leftwich crapping the bed, injured ankle or not. Wali Lundy and the Texans ran for 83 yards in the fourth quarter alone against the same defense that dominated the Steelers on Monday night. There seems to be a trend developing of Jack Del Rio’s teams being regularly decimated by injuries year after year. It’s tough to blame that on a coach, but it can’t just be bad luck when it happens every season to key players. In any case Gerrard is going to start this week which leaves a good bit uncertainty about them even though he’s won games for them before. The Eagles got punked last week and rely for too much on Brian Westbrook. They should be getting Stallworth back this week and if Westbrook is close to a 100% you should expect McNabb’s offense to put up huge numbers at home. Two scores is more than I like to give against a team that likes to control the ball and keep games close, but I will here.
The Pick: Eagles, Under
CINCINNATI 4 Atlanta 44
This is a tough game to call. The Bengals have an awful rush defense and they are facing the multi-pronged Falcons running game that’s shredded just about every team they’ve played. The Falcons have a patchwork secondary and don’t pressure the QB particularly well without Abraham. Matched against Palmer and those playmakers you could be looking at a real shoot out. Both offenses should be able dictate the action. Traditionally you take the team that runs the ball in situations like this. A part of me wants to buy into CJ’s trash talk and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him and TJ Whosyomamma dominate this game. If anyone’s going to make the critical mistakes and give the game away that’d be Vick. It’s a tough call and I’m excited to see this game. Let’s stick with conventional wisdom and take the Falcons.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
N.Y. GIANTS 9 Tampa Bay 40½
It’s been pointed out that the Bucs are a bogus penalty and a 62 yards FG away from being 0-6. I’m not convinced that the Giants are distracted by the Tiki situation, it’s a pretty silly concept to think that that would distract a team. The TO situation is different because he’s divisive and forces the offense to do things it wouldn’t normally do. Tiki’s deal just equates to more off topic questions from the media. I have always though the “leaving at the top of your game” concept was pretty retarded. I agree with Michael Irvin, god I hate doing that, but it is tantamount to quitting to me. On the field it’s a non-issue. Tiki is still playing great and the Giants are far more talented than the Bucs, if a bit inconsistent. The Bucs last 4 games have been decided by a grand total of 8 points making it difficult for me to give 9 points against them. The Bucs are substantially better defensively and while I expect the Giants to control the game I don’t think they shut down Gradkowski and Cadillac entirely and I don’t think they win by double figures.
The Pick: Bucs, Under
CHICAGO 16 San Francisco 41½
Sixteen points? That seems like an awful lot, but the Bears have been lethal at home and that Monday night game was probably a fluke. They are coming off a bye week and should be crisp and refocused. One fact is clear, they are going to try and run the ball compulsively. Everything written over the past two weeks points out that the staff is concerned with the efficiency of the rush and that they’ll need it clicking when Rex struggles again. Against the Niners D they should find success if they are as dedicated as they profess to be. Without a doubt the passing game is still a threat and should loosen up the second level. This dedication to the run might hold the margin of victory down, but I’m going to throw caution to the win and be a homer.
The Pick: Bears, Under
GREEN BAY 3½ Arizona 44½
The Cards had a bunch of well contested games this season and both the offense and defense looked to have potential. Everyone was waiting for them to get each component working at the same time and you were led to think that Leinart’s taking over the starting role would be the spark. Then the Bears happened and the next thing you know you’re getting dominated by the atrocious Raiders. Has the team given up on Denny Green? The fans certainly have. Will Leinart be flustered paying in Lambeau versus Favre? One of two things will happen I think, either the Raiders game was the post meltdown hangover and the Cards will be playing with pride and intensity from here on out. Or they have entirely and completely quit on the season and the Raider game was the first indicator. If they get smoked by the Packers here we’ll know the season is officially over for them. With Ahman Green back and Larry Fitz still out I’m guessing the latter. It’s also worth noting that the Cards have had 11 takeaways in the past 2 games and still lost both games. Ouch.
The Pick: Packers, Over
KANSAS CITY 6 Seattle 36½
Damon Huard might be out and Seattle is starting Seneca Wallace. We probably shouldn’t expect too much out of the passing game here. Really, this spread should probably be off until we know more about Huard’s condition. If he’s playing it feels like a pretty easy pick to take the Chiefs at home. LJ should control the game and the Seahawks offense will struggle to do anything. If the Chiefs are starting a rookie QB the Seahawks defense is fast enough and talented enough to shut down a one dimensional attack. Arrowhead is a venue that always counts for points and the Seahawks have been downright awful on the road this season. I’m wagering the Huard thing is mostly a smoke screen and he’ll play.
The Pick: Chiefs, Under
NEW ORLEANS 1½ Baltimore 37
This is the best defense the Saints will have played this season. McNair is expected to be back under center and I’m not sure that’s much of added value for the Raven offense. They shook up their coaching staff and are entering the Superdome where every possible intangible quality lifts the Saints to near heroic status. There’s many reasons to like the Saints chances, that huge homefield advantage, the inherent empathy opponents seem to have, the dismal Raven running game, McNair’s erratic play, a healthy running game and the change of Ravens play callers. Still, the Ravens defense is good, especially against the run. The Saints strength goes right into the teeth of what the Ravens do best. Expect a low scoring game, and I wouldn’t be surprised with any outcome here but the untested combo of Billick and McNair running an offense in that environment is more risk than I like.
The Pick: Saints, Under
SAN DIEGO 9½ St. Louis 45
I think the Chargers are the better team and at home you expect them to win this game with LDT, Turner, and Rivers controlling the ball. The Rams however are solid and have been effective and balanced on offense. So far Linehan has pushed all the right buttons and I think this game is going to be fought tooth and nail for 4 quarters. Rivers is doing a better job of keeping Gates involved in the action as of late and the Rams biggest flaw is the run defense, not a good situation facing the best combo in the league. Still, 10 points against the Rams is a big number. The Rams have not been the same team on the road and have played close games against far inferior teams. In St Louis you take the points, in San Diego you give the points and hope for the best….as is always the case with Martyball.
The Pick: Chargers, Over
Pittsburgh 9 OAKLAND 38½
The Raiders are improving. Walters is going to end up being a decided improvement over Aaron Brooks, but then again so would I, and their defense actually made a few plays last week. Randy Moss’ numbers are notably better at home for whatever reason. Still, they committed 5 turnovers last week and still won the game. That won’t be the case this week. I’m not sure the Steelers offense is back yet, last week notwithstanding. Big Ben will play, and it’s a bad choice in my opinion, and the Raiders pass defense is it’s one semi-bright spot statistically (though in fairness it’s partly because teams stop throwing the ball with big leads against them) so perhaps we shouldn’t expect a big output from him. Willie Parker will be the difference maker versus this bottom 5 run defense. He’ll account for plenty of points to feel safe giving nine.
The Pick: Raiders, Under
CLEVELAND 2 N.Y. Jets 37½
Please tell me how the 1-5 Browns are favored over the 4-3 Jets. I know the Browns aren’t the worst team in the league and the Jets aren’t exactly dominant but every matchup favors them here. They are really banged up with several key players on the injury report but most will probably suit up. Unless there’s something dramatic I’m missing this spread is out of line. The Jets pass defense is pretty poor so Frye and Co. could have a big game but the disparity in the two teams running games will be the most important factor.
The Pick: Jets, Over
DENVER 3 Indianapolis 39½
Everyone’s game of the week. A top offense versus a top defense etc. etc. For me there’s two important factors. The Mile High stadium advantage and the crapshoot that is the Jake Plummer experience. Which of these forces will out do the other? Additionally, the Colts offensive line has looked pretty questionable as of late so Peyton could be in for a rough day. The Colts run defense is awful and they keep losing players so you know Shanahan will exploit that every step of the way. If Plummer is going to win a big game this will be the one where it happens since about every important matchup favors the Broncos. Even Champ Bailey’s presence should mitigate Marvin and force Peyton to his second read, which combined with the aforementioned protection issues is a recipe for trouble. I’ll take the home team this week, but you’ll certainly see that impressive scoring defense rating take a hit before it said and done.
The Pick: Broncos, Over
CAROLINA 5 Dallas 41
Tony Romo won’t have much success but he might not have to. Jones and Barber are a very good tandem and the Panthers run defense has allowed some big games this season. The Dallas defense is very good and will have to be to stop Steve Smith but they can feel confident in their ability to make the Panthers a pass happy team. The Cowboys have yet to beat a good team and I think the Panthers qualify as one. This game could be very close but it’s never a smart idea to pick a rookie QB on the road against a good team.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
Monday, OCT. 30 New England 1½ MINNESOTA 38½
The Vikings defense is very good and their run defense should go a long ways towards neutralizing the Pats running game. That running game is what makes or breaks this team. Much the same could be said for Chester Taylor and the Pats defense too. Each team could struggle to consistently move the ball and in a close game I like Brady and Belichick.
Subtracting the standard 3 point homefield, it’s actually Jets -1 on a neutral field. I agree that it’s probably a bad spread.
The Browns could very well be 4-3 against the Jets schedule - they haven’t beaten anyone impressive. The Browns lost to the 5-1 Saints, 4-2 Ravens, Bengals before they got in a funk, Carolina, and Denver. I’m not saying they’re a good team, but the strength of schedule is vastly different. I expect a close game.
Also, Mo ‘worst OC EVER’ Carthon got fired. It’s definitely a good thing long term, but the new first-time playcaller (excluding some preseason games) has less than a week to throw together his first game plan. Definitely will be interesting this week.