Quiet week, no one has any commentary I guess! After going 10-6 ATS and 12-4 on the O/U, plus 5-0 on the OMNI picks, I’ve got to pull together a first rate week to prove that it’s legit. Lets see how we’re looking.
Sunday, Sept. 24
BUFFALO 5½ N.Y. Jets 34½
Buffalo has been playing well and their defense is doing much better than expected, however they have also been hurt by injuries early this season. The Jets running game struggled to do much of anything however The Chad has looked awfully convincing off those surgeries. I really like McGahee to put up big numbers against this defense and I like Buffalo to put it together for a win but that spread looks bigger than it ought to be. The Bills played a little better game against the Pats than the Jets did and Miami is certainly better than the Titans, so based on recent history you have to like the Bills. I’m doubtful that Coles will suit up and I think Spikes will play. Advantage Bills again. I don’t like the thought of backing Losman over Pennington, but too many other factors tilt in the Bills favor here.
The Pick: Bills, Over
PITTSBURGH 2 Cincinnati 41½
After that thumping the Steelers took last week I’m more than a little surprised that the Bengals are underdogs here. Pitt is coming off a short week with a QB that’s still not a 100% against a team that’s been pretty much lights out. Plus Cincy has a serious grudge to avenge after that bogus playoff win last season. The game is at Heinz field which isn’t nothing, but I like the Bengals to get over here. The most notable thing I took from the MNF game was that Fred Taylor was a able apparently wear down the Steelers and gain yards in the second half of a tight fought game. Rudi is better with a better line and stronger passing attack to aid him. If CJ sits things might tighten up, but I’m going to bet he plays in this rivalry match up.
The Pick: Bengals, Over
INDIANAPOLIS 7 Jacksonville 44½
Damn, after that MNF showing they are still a TD dog? Did no one watch that game? The Steelers are favored and the Jags are big dogs….what am I missing? I realize that the Colts offense has looked terrific and they are at home, but this Jags defense look dominating and these teams historically play each other close. Combine this with the fact that the Colts are without a stud RB you’ve got to like the Jags to cover that spread. I wouldn’t bet them to win, but no way it’s not a close game.
The Pick: Jags, Under
MIAMI 11 Tennessee 36
What the fuck is that? Culpepper has looked like my mom playing QB and they are an 11 point fave? They’ve been almost as inept as the Titans have. I have no illusions that the Titans will get this victory with their line and QB issues but I’m not sure I trust the Dolphins to put together a full 4 quarters to win by two scores. On the flipside, I’ll be goddamned if I’m going to be caught dead putting money on the QB tandem of Kerry Collins and Vince Young, on the road no less. Screw it, let’s assume the oddsmakers know what the hell they are doing. Fills you with confidence, no?
The Pick: Dolphins, Under
Washington 4 HOUSTON 37½
I think the Redskins have to win this game more. Both teams are 0-2 but the Redskins expected to be much better than this. Clinton Portis will play finally and Mark Brunell will have no excuses for struggling against this defense. Frankly, taking this show on the road may benefit the Skins by getting them out from under some of that local pressure to live up to expectations. I’m pretty sure Samkon Gado is not the answer in Texas, that offense will struggle and turn the ball over about 4 times in this game.
The Pick: Redskins, Under
Chicago 3½ MINNESOTA 34½
I got burned last week but underestimating the Bears offense. I won’t do it again. That Lions defense is a good one and the Bears ran roughshod over it. The Vikings have a good defense as well, especially strong in the secondary unlike the Lions, and a little weak in the middle. For the Bears to dominate this team they’ll have to shift their gameplan and really make some hay on the ground between the tackles. The passing game to the tight ends will be crucial to spread that middle. It’s unlikely they will have as much success on the outside and over the top this week, but I’m ready to stop hedging my bets with Rex. On the flipside, this Vikings offense could be totally quited by the Bears. So far they’ve won a pair of close fought games with a slow, ball control passing game. Those WRs will have DBs hanging all over them and they’ll get popped in the mouth after each catch. Expect the alligator arms to return and expect Brad Johnson to spend some time counting the panels in the dome roof.
The Pick: Bears, Over
Carolina 3 TAMPA BAY 34½
A match up of 0-2 divisional opponents. Steve Smith will be on the field I suspect, finally, and we’ll find out if their difficulties are really all about his absence. I don’t think that’s all it is, they’ve not looked crisp and the play calling has been questionable. The uncertainty in the running game is difficult to explain, they’ve still got a good line and Foster was able to move the ball last season. Hell, even Goings was able to move the ball regularly in the past. Unless they are able to gain yardage on the ground they’ll struggle, with or without Steve Smith. On the other side, this Bucs defense has looked really inept. Bad tackling, slow pursuit and they’ve lost the turnover battle in every contest while playing two teams with historically iffy offenses. I’ve got no reason to expect Chris Simms to put it together this week either. I hate taking so many road teams, but I’d be pretty amazing if the Panthers laid another egg against this floundering team.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
DETROIT 6½ Green Bay 38
Which team is more hapless? The pathetic Favre led Packers or Roy “40 point” Williams and the Kitties? The Lions are still about 4 TDs short of that offensive outburst and Favre actually played a little better game last week. At the same time, the Packers offensive line is riddled with holes and has some injury concerns heading into this week. The Lions do indeed have a stout front four and it could give the Packers lots of trouble. Favre really seems to struggle against teams that play the cover-2 and the Lions are working it into their system. Of course it’s a pretty crummy version of it, but it’s there none the less. Neither team is likely to run the ball well, but I still am guessing there’ll be some point scored in this tilt. Favre will shoulder a heavy burden but the pressure up front will be too much for that passing game, he’ll get away with bad throws against this secondary keeping them in the game though. It’s a real stretch to take the Lions giving a TD but you have to do it here I think.
The Pick: Lions, Over
Baltimore 6½ CLEVELAND 33½
This game will probably look an awful lot like the Bucs-Ravens game. I expect the Ravens to dominate both sides of the ball and the Browns line won’t slow down the Ravens big boys much. As much as Winslow wants the coach to open things up the entire passing game is going to have to rely on Droughns being a threat to move the chains. This is a play action offense and with him getting nothing there won’t be any room for Frye to complete his passes. I do think the Browns can be effective and Charlie Frye has shown flashes of talent but they aren’t balanced or talented enough elsewhere to expect a victory here.
The Pick: Ravens, Over
ARIZONA 4½ St. Louis 44½
Divisional match-ups all over the place. I’m going back and forth on the Rams. I’m not sure they are for real. I picked them to fall to the Niners last week but that was more confidence in SF than doubt in STL. The game is in a dome, which may or may not help the Rams these days. The Rams secondary looked awful last week and they face a premiere passing game this week. I suspect the Rams defense will get scorched and the Cards will outscore them even if Steven Jackson has a big day.
The Pick: Cards, Over
SEATTLE 3½ N.Y. Giants 44
We’ll see if Deion Branch is a difference maker this week. The Gints have to fly cross country for a rematch of last season’s debacle. NY is off strong start and their offense seems to be performing at a higher level than the Seahawks right now, but the Seahawks homefield advantage is significant. They clicked into form last week and that inexperienced Giants secondary will have a tough test slowing down Hasselbeck and crew. Everything as always hinges on Alexander’s ability to get the job done. So far he’s been a little gimpy and the tandem the Giants are sporting is probably on par with that attack right now. This is a very even match but I’m going to lean towards homefield and the crowd noise disrupting a offensive line that’s not entirely meshing yet. Eli will play well, but I think the Giants make one too many mistakes to claim victory.
The Pick: Seahawks, Over
Philadelphia 6 SAN FRANCISCO 42
I’ve been liking the Niners this season, the strides that offense have made are simply amazing compared to last season. In the same breath I’ve been pimping McNabb and company’s return to dominance in the NFC East. Both have exceeded the average pundits expectations. The Eagles lost a really painful one last week and I think that loss will steel their resolve in the road tilt. I really don’t expect Reid to go into a cocoon with a lead again any time soon and the Niners secondary has some holes. Part of me thinks this will be a shoot out, but the Eagles defense will probably hold the score down just enough to make the under.
The Pick: Eagles, Under
NEW ENGLAND 7 Denver 39½
I really dislike what the Broncos have been doing here, but the Pats haven’t done anything to be a 7 point favorite either. I know Plummer is a real dog so far but last season he found his form after a slow start. The pressure from the rookie will either boost him or break him sooner than later. The Pats have played a couple cream puffs and get to try and extend their record to 3-0 at home. I don’t like the Pats this season and I know that the defections will eventually catch up to them but the schedule gods have been very kind. It’s worth noting that the Pats will be coming in with something to prove after last seasons playoff exit and getting even with Shanahan and crew will be very sweet. You know the fans will be feeling it in primetime too. I don’t have a strong logical reason for making this pick but until the Pats fall you have to back them.
The Pick: Pats, Under
Monday, Sept. 25
Atlanta 4 NEW ORLEANS 42
As much as I want this game to be the feel good story of the season for Saints fans, the Falcons have been down right lethal. The Saints have gotten off against a couple crummy teams with weak defenses, there’s nothing weak about the Falcons D. The Saints run defense has been very good so far, but Droughns and Ahman Green don’t have the same kind of support that the Falcons backfield has. Plus, it’s worth noting that Vick has tended to play pretty well when the spotlight is on. John Abraham will be badly missed, but I’m not sure it’s enough to turn the tide in the Saints favor. Brees won’t have to watch his backside as much. The Saints don’t have a guy on defense who can effectively shadow Vick and that’ll be the difference. Teams that succeed when Vick is clicking are teams with a superior LB who can pursue. No one fits that description in New Orleans this week.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
OMNI Picks: Falcons, Bears, Ravens, Redskins, Panthers
