Here’s this week’s predictions. I’ll save the additional commentary until tomorrow when I’ve had some sleep.
Sunday, Oct. 1
Indianapolis 9 NY JETS 46½
The Jets have played pretty well so far, Pennington is performing like he did before his injuries, well mostly, and he’s driving a very good passing game. The Jets running game has been bordering on awful and the defense gave up 300+ yards to JP Losman and 150 yards to McGahee. They are 2-1 nonetheless and they are at home. They look pretty good here when you realize that the Colts have played a couple close games with some key injuries and haven’t shown much of a running game yet, especially getting 9 points. Of course it helps if we pause for a moment to realize that the level of competition these two teams have faced isn’t really comparable. That 2-1 record is pretty soft and that loss to the Pats looks pretty damning after we saw how they played on Sunday night. That’s just a wordy build up to stating that the Colts are in a whole different class than the Jets. Records and past performances mean little. Though I will point out that the Jets defense has given an awful lot of yards to some unimpressive offenses. Indy’s offense is definitely not unimpressive. Eat the points and take Peyton to have a huge game this week, finally getting me a W in my money league I hope.
The Pick: Colts, Over
San Diego 2½ BALTIMORE 33½
This is going to be an exciting game to watch. I really hope it’s broadcast here, though odds are good I’ll be out at a bar watching the Satellite package either way. My man-crush on LDT is once again in full swing and I love the Chargers in the AFC this season. I wasn’t sold on the Ravens at first because I thought their running game and defense would be pedestrian. Well, the running game is still pretty shaky, but that defense looks revitalized. Pundits were either feast or famine on McNair this season, I took a wait and see approach and it’s looking like he’ll be a nice performer against average defenses. Average is not a word I’d use for San Diego though. This should be a contest of which offense is more severely neutered. Its says volumes about how good I think LDT is when I talk myself into picking a Schottenheimer team with a quasi-rookie QB on the road against a top defense. I might regret this one.
The Pick: Chargers, Under
BUFFALO 1 Minnesota 34½
This is how the wheels come off my picks. Taking too many road teams and big favorites. Looks like I’m going to make it three in a row. The AFC East looks really bad and until the Bills take out an above .500 team from outside the division I’m not going to pick them. They’ve got some decent talent and they’ll keep the game close, but the Vikings are a much more complete team. They lost to a very good Bears team that caught a few breaks and are sporting a defense that could end up in the top 5. The Vikings offense still hasn’t really clicked yet but neither has the Bills. Evans and McGahee are they only two Bills who I think are superior to their Vikings counterparts. The Vikings have experience on their side and they’ll be coming off that bitter loss with something to prove. Johnson is going to have to get in sync with his wideouts eventually though.
The Pick: Vikings, Under
Dallas 9½ TENNESSEE 37½
The Titans really do suck. Just awful from top to bottom. Fans have started a firecoachfisher website, which makes you wonder how sharp those fans are if they think this is somehow a coaching issue. It’s a talent issue. Still, it’s nearly a 10 point spread at home against a team that’s been struggling and has suffered a major distraction this week. The Cowboy defense has played fairly well and this could get out of hand if Collins continues his trend of multiple turnover affairs. The Cowboys have had a bye week to prepare and should be coming in healthy with the notable exception of TO. Instincts and history indicate that you should take the Titans to cover this spread, but I have a real tough time placing money on Collins and Vince Young. If the Titans had a dangerous pass rush and could scare Drew Bledsoe into a few INTs or sacks I’d be all over it, but that Titans defense is toothless. Seriously, someone give me a reason to think this won’t be a double digit Cowboy win. The upside is that Julius Jones should have a huge day for me.
The Pick: Cowboys, Under
KANSAS CITY 7 San Francisco 40
Christ, I’m either going to have a great week or an awful one. This will be my 5th straight road pick. I like the spunk the Chiefs have shown, but you’re just not going to convince me that Damon Huard is a reliable option at QB. The Niners have been playing really solid football and I’m a little shocked KC is a TD favorite. It’s not as if this KC defense is one that’s liable to win games on it’s own. Larry Johnson is going to need a huge day to dominate the Niners, and even if he’s goes for 200 yards I expect the Niners offense to do enough to keep it within one score. Frank Gore, Antonio Bryant and Alex Smith. The poor mans triplets!
The Pick: Niners, Over
CAROLINA 7½ New Orleans 42½
The Saints aren’t getting much respect, are they? Yes, they were carried by an awful lot of emotion last week, but it’s not as if they are a crap team. I’ve said it over and over again, this team wasn’t a 3-13 team last year from a talent standpoint. They lost Deuce and Horn. They had Aaron Brooks and Jim Haslett holding them back. The defense suffered some serious injuries. This year they have a solid QB who allows the play makers to do what they do. The defense played very smart in it’s adjustments to Vick and the Falcons running attack. I understand they are going on the road after a very emotional MNF game. The short week and risk of a letdown is very high, but I’m not sure why the Panthers are such a large favorite. Were this a 3 point spread, I’d be OK, but at 7.5? I’m throwing caution to the wind and drinking the Saints Kool-aid.
The Pick: Saints, Over
ATLANTA 7 Arizona 40
I’m going to tell you right now that this pick was decided before I even thought about the match up. I’m taking the home team out of sheer principle. No way I take 7 straight road teams, just can’t do it. I can make a case for the pick though. The Cards have been hot and cold defensively and lack the speed to shut down the Falcons quasi-option attack. They have a slight QB controversy with the Warner situation and they are going to a loud dome against a very good aggressive defense. Certainly they have some talent on offense, I expect them to score a couple big plays when the Falcons guess wrong, but Edge won’t get much of anything going and the Falcons should make them one dimensional. Vick’s mistakes won’t be exploited and I’m not sure the Cards are good enough on defense to use the Saints template this week.
The Pick: Falcons, Over
Miami 4 HOUSTON 38½
How bad are the Dolphins? Bad enough to lose to the hapless Texans? Lets mull the possibility for a moment. David Carr is connecting on 72% of his passes and only has one INT. The Texans have faced off against two very good teams and one team that just caught lightning in a bottle, so perhaps those blowouts aren’t a fair measuring stick. The truly awful rushing attack is a scary circumstance, but the Dolphins haven’t been much better. I struggle to imagine Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers being rendered helpless by the trainwreck that is Culpepper but when they barely squeak by the Titans at home I’m forced to take notice. I won’t be wagering heavily on the Texans any time soon, but it’s been a bold series of pick today so this seems to fit the mood.
The Pick: Texans, Under
ST. LOUIS 5½ Detroit 43½
Roy Williams had a big game last week and the Lions managed some points, but that was against the epically bad Packer defense. St Louis hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, but this Lions pass defense is down right comical. If Favre and company were able to scorch it for nearly 350 yards you have to like the Rams WRs in this dome to do something similar. I know Martz is gone but Tory Holt is still great and Bulger should have plenty of openings to throw into. The Rams loss came in a game where they allowed a RB to dominate for 130+ yards and I highly doubt that the glacial Lions rush will be able to move the chains consistently. There will probably be a few big plays allowed by both teams and the Lions play the run well, but between homefield and the advantage to the Rams aerial attack you have to go with them here.
The Pick: Rams, Under
CINCINNATI 6 New England 45½
Just 6 points? Seriously……lemme call my bookie. Honestly, I’m not sure how much I need to justify this one. You’d have to really be devout Pats fan to pick them here. After watching them struggle to score all season and seeing them getting trounced on Sunday it’s impossible to envision them staying with the Bengals offense. I know they are the Pats and Belichick always found a way in the past, but that’s too much respect.
The Pick: Bengals, Under
Jacksonville 2½ WASHINGTON 34
Another questionable one. I realize the Redskins looked like world-beaters last week and Brunell had a unprecedented afternoon. Portis is back and looking strong with Betts equally dominant however this is the Jags defense…not the Texans. The Redskins defense has underperformed and I’m not expecting them to quiet that massive stable the Jags are sporting. Leftwich has to play better, but that defense is going to be a shock to the Redskins. I expect a bunch of turnovers by Brunell this week.
The Pick: Jags, Under
Cleveland 2½ OAKLAND 34
Why do I think all the afternoon game spreads are bogus? The Raider shouldn’t be less than a TD dog to anyone, even the Buckeyes. I like the Browns offense to go BIG against that hopeless Raider group. Edwards and Winslow might finally get a few highlights to talk smack about this week. Andrew Walter….the football gods are really taking their vengeance on Randy Moss aren’t they?
The Pick: Browns, Under
CHICAGO 3½ Seattle 34½
This game will be all kinds of fun. Big day here in Chicago. Wish I had me some tickets. That game last week was seriously exciting. I’m loving me some Rex Grossman right now. I wish I knew what the hell he does off the field to get his teammates loving him they way they do. Everyone had tons of faith in him even after that crap throw last week. Normally everyone would have been huddled around the Gatorade shooting dirty looks at the QB. This game is going to feature two elite defenses and I’d be lying if I weren’t concerned about the way the Bears running game will respond to the speed the Seahawks have. I worry that we’ll be made one dimensional and that Rex will have to force the ball. Of course, the Seahawks are going to have the same concerns without Alexander on the field. It should be decided by who’s defense is able to force the most mistakes. I’m remembering the way the Seahawks struggled to score in Detroit when they Lions were able to stop Alexander and I’m heartened. The Bears last home game was a blowout and there’s no question that this team will be riding high when they blow that whistle. I don’t see one match-up or one player who could make a difference here, so I’m just going to go with my gut….or my heart more likely.
The Pick: Bears, Under
Monday, Oct. 2
PHILADELPHIA 11 Green Bay 47½
Eleven seems like too many here. Favre has been playing pretty well as of late and typically he gets up for primetime games. Still, the Eagles are one of my sleeper team for the season and so far I’m perfect in picking their games. That Packer defense will easy pickings for McNabb who might not get a single grass stain on his uniform this week. Reid won’t be forced to abandon the run and when that happens the Eagles usually score 35. Big days from Stallworth and Brown are likely and the Eagles will be able to stay in the nickel all game and force turnovers.
The Pick: Eagles, Over