I had a unexpectedly solid week this week. Considering how many risks I took with big spreads and road teams the 8-6 mark ATS is a victory. Strangely almost every time I was correct about the spread I was wrong on the O/U, what’s that say about my picking ability? The 6-8 mark versus the O/U is good enough to keep me 5 games over .500. Not so lucky on the OMNI- picks after a second 1-4 week pulls me to 10-10 even.
Let’s check out this weeks games. There’s a whole pile of home favorites and a mess of half point spreads. I think I’m primed for a big week.
Sunday
INDIANAPOLIS 18½ Tennessee 48
Vince Young starting in that loud dome versus a good but banged up defense. The Colts had a scare last week and I’m betting they will be very focused here. The Titans are really soft against the run without Haynesworth and that will allow the Colts to be balanced and effective on 1st down. That spread is huge but the Titans are awful and Vince Young at QB only makes them worse. There’s no way the Titans defense will be getting off the field except after a Indy TD. It’s going to look like a Texas-Rice game or something.
The Pick: Colts, Under
N.Y. GIANTS 5 Washington 45½
I have no idea what is going on with either one of these teams. I’m inclined to trust the Giants more than the Redskins, especially at home, but the players calling out the coach last week worries me. The Giants are off a bye week which should have them prepared and focused. Of course Al Saunders system looks like it’s finally working and if they were stumped by the Seahawks this will be no easier. The Redskins don’t have the Seattle defense though so Shockey and co. might not be so stumped here. Whatever. I’m flipping a coin here. I think since I’m going to go with a bunch of home teams I’ll go with a road team just for variety on this one (plus I like getting points).
The Pick: Redskins, Over
MINNESOTA 6½ Detroit 40½
To quote Bill Simmons, it’s the resistible force against the movable object. In other words, the limp Minny offense against the toothless Lions D in the hump-dome. In contrast the Vikes D matches up pretty well against a Lions passing game with potential. I like both matchups for the home team here, I’m confident that the Vikings offense will score points and I think their DBs will force turnovers and frustration from the Kitties passing game. Neither running game will perform, so I like the over. No way the Lions get that first W on the road in a loud dome.
The Pick: Vikings, Over
NEW ORLEANS 6½ Tampa Bay 35
Rookie QB on the road in an amp’d up environment…this one is too easy. This Bucs team is slowing down on defense and really lost on offense. Gradkowski is going to take a beating. I said before the season that the Saints weren’t a team lacking for talent. The fast start proves it and this is exactly the kind of game were Reggie Bush could break out.
The Pick: Saints, Under
St. Louis 2½ GREEN BAY 47
This is a tough game to call. The Rams have been playing decent but the trouble in the redzone worries me. So far their offense has struggled on the road and this trip to Lambeau will be a new experience for them. The Packers defense isn’t strong enough to completely stop them though so we’ll have to ask if Favre will be able to out do Bulger in a shoot out. The Packers will be without Ferguson and Green it appears and Driver is dinged up. Favre will certainly play but the beating he’s taking appears to be catching up with him. I don’t love the Rams in this one, but the Packers situation just looks bleak right now. I’m heartbroken I tells ya!
The Pick: Rams, Under
NEW ENGLAND 9½ Miami 37
This one is a no-brainer. The real question is if Maroney will score enough points to lift me to my first fantasy win of the season in my money league. I benched McGahee in favor of this match-up so I’m optimistic. Culpepper is questionable and it’s sounding like Saban is going to use a “injury” as an excuse to give the ball to Harrington. If Harrington plays well he’ll keep him, if not Culpepper will magically be “healthy” next week. In either scenario the Pats defense will clean house.
The Pick: Patriots, Over
CHICAGO 10 Buffalo 34½
I said it before and I’ll say it again, 10 points feels like too many for the Bears. I guess I’m still gunshy after decades of inept offenses and close games. I’m not picking the Bills though, the football gods would punish me for such a violation I’m sure. The Bills have a knack for keeping things close against good competition and their offense has shown flashes. These Bears know Jauron and will be eager to give him a whuppin’, and he’ll play it too safe against superior talent. Hoping for another big day from TJ.
The Pick: Bears, Over
CAROLINA 7½ Cleveland 37½
Why do I have this gut feeling the Browns are going to surprise us? Each week I think they’ll finally break out. The offense is putting up good numbers, Frye, Winslow and Edwards are all near the top of their fantasy positions. Even with a struggling O-line and defensive secondary you’d think they’d score more points. Well, I’m not going to let myself get burned again here. Steve Smith is going to devour this Browns backfield and the Panthers will get healthy at home this week.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
JACKSONVILLE 6½ N.Y. Jets 37
I’m surprised this spread is so big after last weeks games respectively. The Jets aren’t the dog everyone projected and the Jags looked pretty vulnerable. I’m going to call last week a trap game for the Jags and dismiss it. That loss will refocus this defense and the Jags will shut down this Jets offense in all facets. No way the Jets gain 60 yards rushing and the Jags WRs match up very well against gang green’s DBs.
The Pick: Jags, Under
Kansas City 3½ ARIZONA 39½
OK, the Chiefs really made me look stupid last week. I’m not sure I expect them to repeat that performance. Then Denny green announces Leinart as the starter this week so I’m left to choose between Huard and a rookie starting his first game. The media would love Leinart to have a huge day and based on his preseason performance it’s not too hard to imagine. He looked pretty hopeless last week but that was against an aggressive Falcons defense playing with a big lead. I’m not sure either is a fair measure of what to expect from him. KC had a bye week prior to last week and it might have played a role in their ability dominate. Really, I have no idea what to make of this game. Lets go chalk.
The Pick: Chiefs, Over
SAN FRANCISCO 3½ Oakland 40
I think this game is going to be a blowout. Everyone is gunshy about the Niners following last weeks rout but I’m guessing KC just caught lightning in a bottle. Oakland is just terrible in all facets and should be a 10 point dog to everyone in the league. Until they do something to impress me I’m never picking them.
The Pick: [n]Niners, Over**
PHILADELPHIA 2 Dallas 44
TO comes to town and there’ll be plenty of drama surrounding this game. You’ve got to ask if either team will be distracted by the situation. The Cowboys haven’t shown any indication of being effected by TO and the media so far and the Eagles have had plenty of practice being in the spot light. I’m almost inclined to think the Eagles are in a tougher situation just because the fans and players want this victory so badly. On the field the Eagles are missing several key components, at full strength I think they’d hassle Bledsoe enough to shut down the Cowboys offense, especially at the Linc, but losses on the line and secondary will help him stay vertical. The Eagles still lack a strong running attack and can’t do anything between the tackles. Parcells is smart enough to exploit that and make them one dimensional and the Cowboy D is talented enough to contain a predictable attack.
The Pick: Cowboys, Under
SAN DIEGO 3½ Pittsburgh 37
For my fantasy teams sake I hope the Steelers get right this week but aside from that there aren’t a whole lot of reasons to expect good things here. That Charger defense is nasty, especially against the run, and Big Ben has looked downright hopeless. Rivers could have trouble facing the Steelers D for the first time but LDT and co will go a long ways to helping him cope. Willie Parker won’t be able to prop up that offense and I fear we’re in for another week of Ben’s INTs. I’ll be low scoring and won’t be a blow out but this San Diego team is the class of the AFC.
The Pick: Chargers, Under
Monday
DENVER 4 Baltimore 33
I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from McNair so far. He’s done just enough to keep this team in the win column but he’s also made enough mistakes to make these games close. That defense will always give them a chance but he’ll turn in a stinker sooner or later. I think he gets beaten up this week at Mile High and their running game will disappear. The Broncos will have trouble of their own, but so long as Plummer doesn’t fall behind Shanahan will be able to be cautious and count on his defense to create opportunities.
The Pick: Broncos, Over
Also, Darrell Jackson probably would have caught more passes if mean Tommy Harris had left Mr. Hasselbeck alone! Here’s to McNabb scoring less than 20 fantasy points tonight, please.