We’re down to four teams, three of which were here last year. And both games look like great matchups. Here they are, all times EST, odds as of Wednesday.
Sunday, January 28
3:00 pm: 49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 46.5)
6:30 pm: Bengals vs. Chiefs (+1.5, 47.5)
The big news is obviously Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Odds are that he plays, but it sounds like he’ll be limited outside the pocket (which is a big part of his game). Last week, 6/12 of his passes were from outside the pocket before his injury, and 0/18 were outside after. The betting line on the Chiefs has shifted from 1 point favorites on Sunday to 1.5 point underdogs today.
I thought the Bengals would be humbled last week with the injuries to their O-line, and I was very wrong. So this week I’m going with Vegas and picking the Bengals. I think the Chiefs are a good team, but not an exceptional one with a hobbled Mahomes.
I can see the Niners/Eagles game going either way. On paper, the Eagles have the definite advantage. But I’m making a fan pick and predicting that Shanahan comes in with a better game plan that is enough to overcome Philly.
It’s not surprising, given the injury to Mahomes, that the Bengals are now the betting favorites.
The Bengals against the Bills were a completely different team than the Bengals against the Ravens. Quite frankly, Baltimore should have won that game.
If KC doesn’t turn the ball over, they have a chance. But a fumble and/or an interception, or a missed FG, may very well cost them the game, which is exactly what has happened in the last 3 games, all won by the Bengals, each by 3 points.
The NFL announced the finalists for the various AP year-end awards today:
Most Valuable Player
Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles)
Josh Allen (QB, Bills)
Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)
Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs)
Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals)
Offensive Player of the Year
Hurts
Jefferson
Mahomes
Defensive Player of the Year
Nick Bosa (DE, 49ers)
Chris Jones (DT, Chiefs)
Micah Parsons (OLB, Cowboys)
Comeback Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley (RB, Giants)
Geno Smith (QB, Seahawks)
Christian McCaffrey (RB, 49ers)
Coach of the Year
Brian Daboll (Giants)
Doug Pederson (Jaguars)
Kyle Shanahan (49ers)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers)
Kenneth Walker (RB, Seahawks)
Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Sauce Gardner (CB, Jets)
Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Lions)
Tariq Woolen (CB, Seahawks)
Voting was completed before the start of the playoffs; given that, here’s my best guess on winners:
MVP: Hurts
Offensive POY: Jefferson (as the MVP has essentially become the QB of the Year award, this one often is the “Non-QB MVP”)
Defensive POY: Bosa
Comeback: McCaffrey
Coach: Pederson
Offensive Rookie: Purdy
Defensive Rookie: Gardner
I think I might disagree with MVP. Before the playoffs, Hurts was injured, hadn’t played for two or three games, and there was speculation he might not be available for the Eagles’ first playoff game. Mahomes had the numbers and recency going for him. I would guess Mahomes, which might mean voters would go for Hurts for Offensive POY.
I went with McCaffrey as he had only played in ten games over the course of 2020 and 2021, due to injuries, and the Comeback Player award seems to often go to star players who have a resurgent year after injuries. Geno’s comeback was of a different (though also excellent) nature, after spending 7 years as a backup.
While I agree that Hurts best fits the term “most valuable”, remember who votes for the award - reporters seem to have the attention span of two year olds when it comes to things like this.
I think all three are worthy of the award. Shanahan showed that he could overcome the loss of players at the key offensive position, but Daboll and Pederson both got their teams to outperform expectations (and rosters) by a significant margin.
Shanahan should get it, but I agree that Pederson will get the votes. It’s another opportunity for everyone to kick Urban Meyer when he’s down, and they’ll jump at the chance.
Mahomes vs Hurts: Mahomes had 5200 passing yards vs 3700 passing yards, and 41 passing TDs vs 22 passing TDs. Now, Mahomes had almost 200 more attempts than Hurts, and he threw 12 picks, to 6 by Hurts. Their Yards per Attempt was virtually the same, as was their completion percentage.
Hurts, however, had twice as many rushing yards, and 13 rushing TDs to 4 by Mahomes.
Mahomes played in all 17 games, while Hurts missed 2 games.
Some guesses:
MVP: Mahomes
OPOY: Hurts (the voters split the difference)
DPOY: Parsons
Comeback: Geno (This has to be the biggest surprise, combined with the QB bias…)
Coach: Pederson (Recovering from Meyer is bigger than recovering from Judge)
OROY: Purdy (QB + Mr. Irrelevant)
DROY: Sauce (Honestly, he should be up for DPOY too.)
As much as I like Brock Purdy and his story this season, I can’t see him winning ORoY on only six regular season games. He’ll just have to sign off on a Hollywood biopic as compensation.