NFL 2023-2024: Super Bowl 58

The Game Room
1

Super Bowl week is here. For the first time, the Big Game will be played in Las Vegas, at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Raiders.

The Kansas City Chiefs, who many thought (including this Chiefs fan) had no chance of making it this far, will be looking to defend their championship and become the first team since the 2003 and 2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

The San Francisco 49ers, who were the best team in the NFC this season, will be seeking revenge against the Chiefs after losing to KC in the Super Bowl four years ago.

The line is taken from DraftKings. Time is Central time.

Sunday:

Chiefs vs 49ers (-2) 5:30 pm, CBS

Kansas City took a much different path to the Super Bowl this year, winning two playoff games on the road, primarily behind a defense that has allowed just three fourth-quarter points in their three playoff games. Their offense, which struggled mightily at times this season, has played error-free football, and has scored just enough points to win. The Chiefs and Mahomes are underdogs for the third time in the postseason.

The 49ers, who looked dominant during much of the season, trailed in the second half in both of their two playoff games, but came from behind in both contests to win. In both games, the offense came alive when needed, while the defense shut down the opponents. The Niners have taken full advantage of mistakes made by the other guys.

What do you think? Will the Chiefs repeat? Will the 49ers extract revenge? Will Taylor Swift make it back from Japan in time for kickoff?

2

I know it’s a cliche to say that great teams find a way to win, but the Chiefs going from a Super Bowl winning, offensive juggernaut/pass heavy/questionable defense team to a defensive stalwart with only one, aging stud pass catcher, and still getting to the Super Bowl is pretty damn impressive to me. Trading their most explosive offensive player in Tyreek Hill got them the draft picks and salary cap room to build on their weakness and still compete. Gutsy call that paid off.

Meanwhile, the Niners are a very similar team, but with a stud RB and a late round QB rather than the Chiefs stud QB and a late round RB. But also a very good defense.

Should be an interesting game.

3

That is a great comparison. Christian McCaffrey is the best non-quarterback offensive player in the league right now, while Isiah Pacheco is one of the better 7th-round picks in recent memory.

I totally agree. I think it will be a one-score game and may come down to the last possession.

4

And, since Super Bowl week is never about actual football, I’ll offer up the story of Amit Patel.

Mr. Patel is possibly the world’s worst gambler, losing over $21 million dollars in a few years gambling on internet sites. He also is a lavish spender: spending hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars on watches, cars, condos, rental jets, country club memberships, and, of course, cryptocurrency.

The problem? It wasnt his money. He embezzled $22 million dollars from … the Jacksonville Jaguars.

5

I’ll have to admit, it’s way easier to be nonchalant about losing vast amounts gambling when it’s not your own money at stake.

The most amusing part of that story (from my perspective as someone unaffected by his fraud, anyway), was that he used some of the embezzled funds to pay for a retainer with a criminal defense firm. Like that was really going to prevent him from getting prison time. Bet he’s slapping himself now for not quitting while he was ahead.

6

For me, the most recent amusing part (for certain levels of “amusing”) is the Jaguars asking FanDuel to give them back the embezzled funds that Patel had lost in gambling, and FanDuel apparently taking the view of “this isn’t our problem.”

7

A bit similar is the Bernie Madoff scandal. Prosecutors/courts were able to claw back money from early investors who had actually gotten paid. The idea was that these were ill-gotten gains and like stolen property; a recipient doesn’t get to keep the gains/property even though they did nothing wrong. You buy something at the pawn shop that turns out to be stolen; back it goes. Tough luck. You can sue the shop but the property isn’t yours. Right now the Jags are being nice, once the courts and lawyers get involved; all bets (ho ho) are off. My wager is FanDuel will return most if not all the money.

49ers Chiefs win. It’s Taylor Swift’s world and we’re all living in it.

8

Yeah, at this point I think I’m rooting for the Chiefs simply because a Chiefs win would probably piss off the MAGAts. Otherwise I have absolutely nothing to root for on either side.

I previously said I didn’t know which I would find to be more annoying: Chiefs beat the 49ers or Chiefs beat the Lions. Turns out Chiefs beat the 49ers is more annoying. Because at least if the Lions were in it, I’d have the two week run up to root for them. As it is, I’m just waiting for the draft.

9

I would think that once you embezzle the money you start thinking of it as yours.

10

The point spread is now 49ers by 2.

I’m pulling for the 49ers but don’t see how they can be favored. The Chiefs are to me the stronger team, the team to beat, and that’s not just the players but also the coaching. 49ers not by 2 indicates the betting is heavily on the 49ers to win. It’s the money, not necessarily the teams’ capabilities. At least not directly.

11

The 49ers are the better team on paper. The line would be higher if it weren’t for the perception of Mahomes.

12

The opening line was 49ers -2.5. It soon moved to 49ers -2, and has stayed there for well over a week, IIRC. (At least, it was at -2 on Sunday when I created this thread.) The fact that there’s been little movement on the line means that the bookies got it right on the opening line.

I’m a bit surprised that more money hasn’t been bet on the Niners, because the Chiefs have some major injury issues, while the Niners appear to have everybody healthy.

13

Bear in mind that the point spread / betting line is only partially related to the perceived relative strengths of the two teams. What it truly represents is what size of spread (and towards which team) generates a relatively equal amount of betting action on each team.

14

I suspect this is true, but the one nuance might be the fungible nature of money. They might have to prove that it was the stolen money which was gambled and lost. I haven’t bothered to read into the situation, but in most cases that would be nigh on impossible. That said…FanDuel and the NFL have a pretty lucrative partnership so they may want to avoid an acrimonious lawsuit, so this will probably be settled out of court in the NFL’s favor.

I’m of two minds here. MAGA turning into Chiefs haters makes me want them to win very badly. I’m far more annoyed by the toxic misogyny of the Taylor hate than I am the overexposure. At this point I hope it’s Taylor on the field after the game saying, “I’m going to Disney World!”.

That said, I’m very excited for the Brock Purdy, Super Bowl Champion storyline. Having Mr. Irrelevant going out there and beating the reigning GOAT QB would be juicy. And after the whole toxic MVP debate between him and Lamar, I feel like him winning would be a nice little bit of karmic justice.

Setting aside the narrative reasoning, this is a tricky game to predict. One of my betting rules for the Super Bowl is to bet on the team with the best single unit. In this one it’s probably either the SF Offense or the KC Defense. It’s close but I think I give the edge to the KC Defense.

The Niners have been politicking the Refs hard in the run up trying to make sure that the Chiefs OL doesn’t get away with holding Bosa all game long. If that works and if there’s a steady stream of flags short circuiting the Chiefs drives, that could be the difference. That tactic could backfire, with either the 49ers OL taking just as many flags or the Refs swallowing the whistle entirely out of sheer stubbornness.

The trend for the Chiefs is low scoring games while the 49ers have been having shoot outs. As much as I want to believe that a high scoring affair favors the offensive talent on the Niners side, the Chiefs have Mahomes. The Lions carved the 49ers up most of the NFCCG and in spite of the Chiefs WR issues this season, you’d be a fool to think Mahomes and Reid won’t be able to match Goff and Johnson in a shooting match.

Shanahan has mostly avoided the label of choker in spite of his repeated failures in the playoffs. His track record looks awfully similar to Reid’s tenure in Philly. I don’t really see Shanahan as a guy who turtles up or mismanages games, so I think more than anything it’s just been a bunch of bad matchups and bad luck. But the dude as a lot on the line. If he loses as a favorite this year you can bet the rumblings are going to start getting louder.

Right now I’m predicting Kansas City 34 - San Fransisco 31. But I’ll probably flip flop 6 times over the weekend.

15

What was the toxic MVP debate? I must have missed it.

16

I don’t care how rich you are. If you spend upward of $10k to go to this game, you are financially irresponsible.

Just my opinion.

17

That’s a fair point.

18

That’s a good point.

But, as a Bills fan (yeah, I know what everyone’s going to say…to which I respond to no one in particular: sit on it!), I really need SF to put a pin in those donkeys.

Would rather have had it been Baltimore, in a nice shut-out, but they had some issues that last game. And then I’d be go Raven.

Meh, if it takes the 49ers to get 'er done, then so be it. But they’d better whup some ass.

Since am only really hoping for a negative outcome (i.e., Kill those whining, arrogant little Chefs and stop them running their mouth, no matter who does it), I don’t even know if I’ll bother watching “The Game.” Only hatred fuels me at this point, and that doesn’t sound like a fun way to watch the game.

I’ll probably read the play-by-play, if anything, as the “big” show goes on, in real time. Not watching any highlights if those dweebs from KC win, though.

19

Reading through the comments here and elsewhere, it’s obvious that the Chiefs are becoming a team that people love to hate. They have supplanted the Patriots for this honor, although neither the Pats nor the Chiefs will ever approach the Cowboys in this regard.

And it didn’t take long for KC to achieve this goal. It wasn’t very long ago that they were the darlings of the league.

20

Part of that is they’re the new “always winning” team. People love to hate successful teams and claim everything is biased towards them regarding penalties, scheduling, yadda yadda. Generally happens to any sustained success, even on a relative scale. See: a significant portion of Vikings fans when asked about the Packers. Some Bears and Lions fans, too.

Part of it is the Swift Phenomenon. 45 seconds of one of the most popular celebrities in the nation being happy is 45 seconds too much. See my first part. Also tying in to this is the new conspiracies surrounding Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to…wait for it…vote. Not generally who to vote for, just to vote. That’s bad, according to democracy-hating fucksticks.