NFL 2024-25: Week 14

The Game Room
1

The Chiefs became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but only because of an ill-timed snap by the Raiders center, which ruined a game-winning field-goal opportunity. The Raiders became the first team to be eliminated from postseason contention. That game was one of 12 one-score games throughout the holiday weekend. The Lions escaped an upset bid by the Bears, thanks to some ridiculous clock management by Chicago’s former coach. The Cowboys won their first home game of the season, and the Bucs pulled off a miracle OT win in Carolina. Seattle is now in first place in their division, and the Steelers have a 2-game lead in theirs. Buffalo became the second playoff team with a win in the snow, and the Chargers solidified their playoff position with a win over the Falcons. The Eagles stayed right behind Detroit with a solid win over the Ravens, as did the Vikings with a 1-point victory over the Cardinals. In a highly entertaining MNF game, the Broncos defeated the Browns, who might be the best 3-9 team in recent history.

Thursday night features a battle for the NFC North, as Green Bay visits Detroit. The Vikings host the Falcons, as they try to keep pace with the Lions. Seattle visits Arizona, trying to protect their slim lead in the NFC West. Sunday night’s game features an AFC West battle when the Chargers visit Arrowhead. And MNF showcases perhaps the two most disappointing teams this season when the Cowboys host the Bengals. Six teams have a bye this week, the last bye week of the season.

This week’s games. All spreads taken from ESPNBet on Tuesday, December 3 at 9:10 am CT.

Thursday night:
Packers @ Lions (-3.5)

Sunday early:
Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)
Jets @ Dolphins (-6.5)
Falcons @ Vikings (-5)
Saints @ Giants (+5)
Panthers @ Eagles (-12)
Browns @ Steelers (-6)
Raiders @ Buccaneers (-7)

Sunday late:
Seahawks @ Cardinals (-3)
Bill @ Rams (+4.5)
Bears @ 49ers (-4)

Sunday night:
Chargers @ Chiefs (-4)

Monday night:
Bengals @ Cowboys (+5.5)

Byes:
Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Commanders, Ravens, Texans

2

I think this was touched on in one of the other late November threads. There are 5 games left for most everyone. Normally the playoff picture would still be in massive flux, but given the large standard deviation in team wins this year (or winning %), a large majority of the current “in” teams have prohibitive chances of making the playoffs.

ESPN Playoff Odds

In the AFC, only the final wild card slot is really up for grabs, and even there Denver has a 75% to 25% edge over the Colts, who play each other this weekend, with just a few also-rans with meager prospects. If the Broncos win, the AFC will basically be all locked up with 4 games still remaining, which is mind-boggling. The Colts (.462) are the only team in the AFC with a winning % between .417 (Miami who is next in line with a 9% chance) and .615 (3 teams incl. Denver).

Things are bit more up for grabs in the NFC, with 4 mortal locks, the Commanders @ 83%, and 5 teams vying for the 2 remaining slots, 4 of which are 6-6. It’s basically division titles or bust for all 5.

The larger number of slots is what gives the top teams locks so early, of course.

3

That can’t be right. The Giants lost their 10th game the day before the Raiders did. Both are now 2-10, in a three-way tie with Jacksonville for the #1 overall pick.

4

Looks like you’re right. Haven’t mathed it all out for weird potential edge cases on Sunday games, but it looks like the Giants were eliminated as soon as they lost on Thanksgiving.

But you’ll have to forgive a Chiefs fan for focusing on the AFC West.

5

Teams already eliminated: Giants, Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars

This bye week is the last winnable week of the seasons for the Pats.

6

They each have a bye week, but do play each other in Week 15.

7

Ah, but they close the season against the Bills. If playoff seeding is set by then, that might be an eminently winnable game. Depends on if the #1 seed is still up for grabs by then.

8

:exploding_head:

9

If the Commandos make the playoffs, they will have done so playing a very weak schedule. I don’t think they’ve beaten an over-.500 team yet.

10

Yes, please forgive me. It should have been in the AFC.

11

Three of which are from the NFC North, two of which will be wild cards. Each of the 4 North teams still have 3 divisional games to play. So a lot could change in the last five weeks. (Astute analysis, I know.)

Which, as you indicated, are the division titles in the South and West. 3 weeks ago, Atlanta looked to be a lock to win the South, but they’ve lost 3 in a row while the Bucs have won their last two. Atlanta swept the Bucs this season, so they will hold the first tiebreaker if they end up tied.

12

You are right, their best win was against the Arizona Cardinals who are 6 - 6.

13

Yeah, I know. Not that long ago fans were already talking about next season.

They made a handful of personnel changes on defense and became one of the best in the league seemingly overnight. It’s bonkers.

If they can get a run game in place they might be scary. And if Geno can stop his habit of throwing a dumb interception at least once a game. (Okay, last game he had none but I feel like the special teams group had enough turnovers that they already filled the team quota.)

The passing game is already scary good, but you can’t be that one-dimensional on offense and expect to compete at the highest level.

14

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is going onto injured reserve. He’d already been dealing with a sprained non-throwing shoulder, but after suffering a concussion when Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair hit him in the head on Sunday, the Jags have probably shut him down for the season by making this move: he has to be on IR for at least four games, and they only have five games remaining – and, at 2-10, they have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

15

What a game in Detroit!

16

Packers were in it until the end, but it seems to be the Lions’ year. And, honestly, I don’t begrudge the Lions, or their fans, for it one bit.

17

That was the Dan Canpbellest game that’s ever been Campbelled. Five times going for it on 4th down, including the last absolutely insane call. I can appreciate not wanting to give Love 40 seconds to get in FG range, but I’d never have the guts (or some might say stupidity) to make that call.

18

Yeah, and then Goff got tripped up on the handoff. Ay-yi-yi. I thought they were just there to try and draw them offside, but nope. Next thing I know, Goff’s got the ball and he’s heading down to the turf. Luckily the gridiron gods are smiling on Detroit this year and it all worked out.

19

I assumed the same. No one’s crazy enough to actually not take the FG with 43 seconds left, right? I guess they were counting on the Packers thinking the same thing and being caught off guard.

All’s well that ends well, but oof. Crazy.

20

I love the going for it on fourth down strategy. Love it.

But it wasn’t the end-of-game one that turned my stomach upside down, it was the earlier (failed) attempt when they went for it from their own 30 yard line.

Yikes.

mmm