NFL 2024-25: Week 16

The Game Room
1

The Bills served notice that they are now the undisputed Super Bowl favorites by winning at Detroit 48-42. Buffalo became just the second team in NFL history to score 40+ points and allow 40+ points in consecutive games, joining the 1966 Giants. The injury-depleted Lions had their 11-game winning streak snapped, and the Vikings pulled into a tie with Detroit at 12-2 with a win over the Bears. The Eagles also improved to 12-2 with a convincing victory over the Steelers, and Tampa Bay routed the Chargers for their fourth straight win. The Ravens and Broncos solidified their playoff positions with wins, while the Bengals and Cowboys kept their faint hopes alive.

On Thursday the Chargers host the Broncos in a key AFC wild-card matchup. Saturday has two big games when Houston travels to Kansas City (who may not have Mahomes available) and Baltimore hosts the Steelers, who now lead the Ravens by just one game in the AFC North. On Sunday, the Eagles will try to keep rolling when they visit Washington, and Seattle will attempt to slow down the visiting Vikings.

Clinched playoff spot: Bills, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Vikings.
Eliminated: Jets, Patriots, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Giants, Bears, Panthers.

This week’s games. All spreads taken from ESPNBet on Tuesday, December 17 at 9:35 am CT.

Thursday night:
Broncos @ Chargers (-3)

Saturday:
Texans @ Chiefs (+2)
Steelers @ Ravens (-6)

Sunday early:
Giants @ Falcons (-10)
Lions @ Bears (+6.5)
Browns @ Bengals (-7)
Titans @ Colts (-4.5)
Rams @ Jets (+3.5)
Eagles @ Commanders (+3.5)
Cardinals @ Panthers (+4)

Sunday late:
Patriots @ Bills (-14)
Vikings @ Seahawks (+3)
Jaguars @ Raiders (+1)
49ers @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Sunday night:
Buccaneers @ Cowboys (+4)

Monday night:
Saints @ Packers (-14)

2

If nothing else, Josh Allen has served notice that he’s the MVP favorite and he should be. Holy crap on a cracker he’s unreal this year.

3

According to DraftKings, Allen’s odds to win the MVP are at -900. Next closest is Lamar Jackson at +550. Yes, Allen is a prohibitive favorite.

Also on DK, Bills odds to win the SB are +425. Eagles and Lions are both +475. Chiefs are +550; Ravens are +800. I actually expected the Bills odds to be further ahead of the field than they are.

4

Quarterback stuff:

  • The Titans appear to be benching Will Levis for this week’s game, which would likely make Mason Rudolph the starter against the Colts on Sunday. Levis threw three interceptions last week, and was replaced by Rudolph mid-game.
  • The Browns are benching Jameis Winston, and will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Bengals. Like Levis, Winston was benched late in last week’s game, after throwing three interceptions.
  • Falcons head coach Raheem Morris is noncommittal on whether Kirk Cousins will start against the Giants. Cousins has not played well recently; in his last five games, he has one touchdown pass, versus nine interceptions.
  • The Chiefs are hopeful that Patrick Mahomes can play through a high ankle sprain, but Andy Reid may have to turn to Carson Wentz if Mahomes can’t go.
5

Wow. I mean I know how lucky the Chiefs have been, but the Texans have an even worse point differential. A lot depends on whether Mahomes can play or not of course.

6

Can you imagine the hot takes if Wentz comes in and lights it up against the Texans?

7

I saw a surprising stat in the Raiders game last night; Cousins has more interceptions than any other QB for the entire season. I didn’t realize it was so bad, as I haven’t been paying that much attention to Atlanta to be honest.

My wife commented that it would be hilarious if Mahomes ended up being out the rest of the season and Wentz ended up taking the Chiefs to a Super Bowl win. That would be big time karma.

8

Mahomes was listed as a ‘full participant’ in Tuesday’s practice, although the Chiefs weren’t in full pads today.

And on DraftKings and ESPNBet right now, the Chiefs are favored by 3 points.

9

3 points at home, eh? Take the points!

10

I haven’t ever been a serious bettor, but I certainly don’t remember a point spread swinging five points in 10 hours. It’s probably happened just like this one, based on an injury report.

11

No surprise that everybody knows that as Mahomes goes, so does the team.

12

In other quarterback news, the Falcons have seen enough of Kirk Cousins, at least for now. Rookie Michael Penix Jr. will start at home Sunday against the Giants. Penix has appeared in 2 games thus far and is 3-5 passing for 38 yards.

13

I can’t believe my Brownies are benching Winston. Three interceptions is nothing. That’s only an average half.

And thanks to Railer13 for running this show!

14

Depending on what “moving forward” means, it may be for the rest of the season (all three games of it):

They owe Cousins a bunch of money, for at least the next two years, if they decide to move on from him.

15

You are welcome!

16

The Broncos/Chargers game, which was originally scheduled for Sunday, was flexed into the Thursday night game. I just read that this was the first time that a game has been flexed to Thursday. The Bengals/Browns game was moved from Thursday to Sunday.

A number of Broncos fans are upset, as they had made travel plans to spend the weekend in Southern California and watch their team play. Also, the Bengals and Broncos play the following week, which gives the Broncos the extra 3 days of rest, rather than the Bengals.

17

Flexing between days should not be a thing. Changing times is bad enough for those who might want to fly home after the game and find themselves going to a game in the evening when they expected a morning/noon one. Having to completely redo your travel schedule, including almost certainly taking (extra) days off work? Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope. The only consolation is that it was announced a few weeks ago.

With the Vikings win on Monday, the only route to Green Bay winning the division is a Week 18 tie between the Vikings and Detroit. It’s shaping up to be an exciting end to the season, with the Lions playing from hospital beds, Green Bay getting hot, and Minnesota still handling their business. Sucks to be the Bears, though. Their EASY game is against Seattle.

18

Agreed. It’s a terrible idea, and Thursday night games already have a well-deserved reputation for being hated by the players and coaches (due to the short week), as well as for often being bad football (for the same reason). A (relatively) last-minute flex is even more obnoxious, especially for fans who had made plans to travel to the game.

The league doesn’t care. For them, it’s all about driving TV and streaming eyeballs and revenue. The fact that we’re now getting Wednesday (Christmas) games and Friday games shows that the league and the owners only care about getting possible single golden egg out of that goose.

19

We all just assume it’s a bad thing, but why? The NFL is an entertainment business. Why is it a bad thing to entertain the largest number of people? A few thousand fans are pissed off that their travel plans are screwed. A few million fans are glad that there’s now a decent game for them to watch on Thursday.

“But they’re putting out a worse product!” Bullshit. If showcasing the best football was the primary goal, we’d have two teams with the best players and have them play each other every week. But variety is more interesting. Playing through some challenges is more interesting. More games to watch is more interesting.

We can keep yelling at clouds, or we can just embrace it.

20

I’ll never advocate for a team to tank on purpose. I still have to kinda hope the 49ers don’t do much more winning this season, and not just that it gets a better draft position.

The three opponents determined by finish position in the NFC West:
3rd place: Cowboys Packers, Bengals
4th place: Giants, Bears, Browns

As it stands now, that’s a difference of 22-20 (.524) and 9-33 (.214)