NFL 2023: Week 18, the Final Chapter

The Game Room
1

Entering the final weekend of the regular season, here are the current playoff pictures in both conferences. (This info was gleaned from a couple of different sites. I take no responsibility for any error or miscalculation.)

AFC:

Ravens have clinched the 1 seed.
Chiefs have clinched the 3 seed.
Browns have clinched the 5 seed.
Dolphins have clinched a playoff spot. With a win, the Fins will win the East and the 2 seed. With a loss, they will be the 6 seed. Dolphins play the Bills Sunday night in the last game of the regular season.

Bills will win the East and the 2 seed with a win. With a loss, they will be the 6 seed if either the Steelers or the Jags lose. If they lose and the Steelers and Jags win, they are eliminated.
Jags will win the South and the 4 seed with a win. With a loss, they are eliminated. Jags play the Titans.
Colts will clinch a playoff spot with a win. They will win the division with a win and a Jags loss. With a loss, they are eliminated. Colts play the Texans Saturday night.
Texans will clinch a playoff spot with a win. They will win the division with a win and a Jags loss. With a loss, they are eliminated.

Steelers can make the playoffs only with a win over the Ravens and losses by either the Bills or Jags.

All other teams have been eliminated.

NFC:

49ers have clinched the 1 seed.
Lions have clinched the 3 seed, and can earn the 2 seed with a win and losses by the Cowboys and Eagles. Lions play the Vikings on Sunday.
Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot, and can win the East and the 2 seed with a win over Washington. If they lose and the Eagles win, the Boys will be the 5 seed.
Eagles have clinched a playoff spot, and can win the East and the 2 seed with a win over the Giants and a Cowboys loss. If the Boys win, the Eagles will be the 5 seed.
Rams have clinched a playoff spot, and will be the 6 seed with a win over the Niners. With a loss, they will be either the 6 or 7 seed.

Bucs will win the South and the 4 seed with a win over the Panthers on Sunday. They are eliminated with a loss.
Packers will clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Bears on Sunday. If they lose, they can still make the playoffs with losses by both the Seahawks and Saints.

Seahawks can make the playoffs only with a win over the Cardinals and a loss by the Packers.
Saints can win the division with a win over the Falcons and a Bucs loss. They can also earn a wild-card berth with a win and a loss by the Seahawks.
Falcons can win the division with a win and a Bucs loss. They cannot be a wild-card team.
Vikings can earn a playoff spot only with a win and losses by the Packers and Seahawks, and a loss by either the Bucs or Saints.

All other teams have been eliminated.

Here are the games and spreads. All lines taken from DraftKings:

Saturday:

Steelers @ Ravens (+4)

Saturday night:

Texans @ Colts (+1)

Sunday early:

Browns @ Bengals (-7)
Bucs @ Panthers (+4.5)
Jaguars @ Titans (+5.5)
Falcons @ Saints (-3)
Jets @ Patriots (-1.5)
Vikings @ Lions (-3)

Sunday late:

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5)
Eagles @ Giants (+5)
Cowboys @ Commanders (+13)
Rams @ 49ers (-4)
Broncos @ Raiders (-3)
Seahawks @ Cardinals (+2.5)
Bears @ Packers (-3)

Sunday night:

Bills @ Dolphins (+3)

By my count, just four of these 16 games will have no bearing on the playoff picture. All other games may (or may not) factor into the final seedings.

The two biggest games are the two night games: Texans/Colts and Bills/Dolphins. The Saturday game (Texans/Colts) in particular, where the winner makes the playoffs and the loser goes home. FWIW, the Colts opened as 1.5 point favorites, but are now 1 point dogs. The Bucs and Jags are both involved in similar games, where winning ensures a division crown while losing means an early exit. The Bucs have a much easier path than the Jags, as the Titans would like nothing better than to eliminate their divisional foe. Likewise, the Bears have a chance to put a kibosh on the playoff chances of the Pack. Chicago has already clinched the top draft pick.

Lots of moving parts over the weekend, and the final standings won’t be known until the last game is completed.

2

I had not planned on the Packers making the playoffs, especially with the injury bug hitting hard, especially among their best players. But it is a nice surprise that they control their own destiny. Win, and in! Then, anything can happen (except the Pack winning the Super Bowl this year. I can’t imagine that in the least).

So we finally get a Packer/Bear game that really, REALLY matters. Which is just what the NFL wanted when they started scheduling rival games at the end of the season.

Should be interesting…

3

Yes, I was going to mention that everybody is playing a divisional rival this weekend. Most games matter, some don’t. Like these:

Browns/Bengals
Jets/Patriots
Chiefs/Chargers
Broncos/Raiders

4

For the playoffs, no.

But the Bears aren’t playing for a playoff berth (same as Detroit in the same position last year), and you can guarantee they’ll bring everything they can to this game - beating a division rival is a special victory in it’s own right.

5

Browns to start their 5th QB of the season. Some guy they picked up off the street that they saw throwing balls around. (Jeff Driskel).

Five more names to the QB shirt of legendary QBs employed over the past few years/decades.

6

I am not joking when I say the Browns ought to sell that as an authentic jersey (a Browns jersey with 24 QB names). It would sell rapidly.

7

The Chefs are sitting Mahomes, which is obviously a smart move. I haven’t seen if they’re going to sit Kelce, who is 16 yards away from his 8th consecutive 1,000 yard season. He should sit, but it’s a shame his streak will end.

8

They could play Kelce for just as long as it takes him to get his 16 yards, then bench him.

9

And that would not be unprecedented. There are plenty of examples of players who are close to a record or bonus being played just enough to reach the goal.

10

Yeah, if his contract includes bonus money if he gets 1000 yards, the smart play from management’s perspective would be to make sure he gets those 16 yards.

11

That said, I have seen where they give the bonus anyway if someone is close.

12

That list of Cleveland QB futility is making me twitchy. No Mayfield? No Manziel?!

EDIT: I guess that means that picture is a decade old? Ouch.

13

Yeah it’s extremely short compared to what it would look like today.

This article is more than a year old but it goes up to Mayfield.

14

Heck, they could go back to the days after the recently-deceased Frank Ryan left the club in 1969. An almost-endless parade of busted draft picks (anyone recall Mike Phipps?) and journeymen, with the only real bright spots being Brian Sipe (arguably for only 1 year, when he won the MVP) and a few years of Bernie Kosar, who also was only really great for one year. If you wanted to bet in '69 that nobody would better Ryan’s stat line for the next 55 years (adjusted for era), you would have had a lot of takers.

15

Is Flacco hurt or are they benching him since the game doesn’t matter?

16

Keeping him out of danger. Game means nothing. The O-line has been decimated all year. Coming together better lately but since Flacco likes the down range stuff; getting sacked and hurt is a possibility. He’s their best option in the playoffs. The main receivers will be out as well. (Moore and Cooper).

17

I’d guess Kelce cares more about the streak/record than the cash, but yeah, I’m guessing they play him and throw to him until he gets his yards.

18

The Rams are keeping Stafford on the bench, but I really hope they let Puca Nukua go for the rookie receiving record.

In the same game, my 49ers are resting Purdy. McCaffrey is out, too, nursing a quad strain, meaning he’ll end the 2023 regular season with exactly 2023 yards from scrimmage.

19

As a Sehawks fan it makes me twitchy of calls to get anyone in the Draft because Geno is only middle of the road and we need a star QB.

20

Our last star QB was drafted in the 3rd round…