I thought the Bears gave up two first round picks (2019 and 2020), swapped a third for a second round in 2020, and traded a fifth for a sixth (with a year difference). Chiefs gave up one first round pick and a second next year (and swapped 3rds). Not sure how that is more.
This will be the first season in a while where the Browns aren’t going to be the stars of the draft show. I suppose that’s a good sign.
We got our first round pick a month early.
Bears exchanged:
Future (2019) 1st (24th overall)
Future (2019) 6th (196 overall)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (1st rounder for a 2nd rounder, projecting -15 spots)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (6th rounder for a 5th rounder, projecting +15 spots)
Chiefs exchanged:
2019 1st (29th overall)
2019 Pick Swap (3rd rounders, -8 spots)
Future (2020) 2nd (value TBD)
In the old school thinking, the future picks are worth 1 round less than current year picks. Not sure that math really holds up, but they are absolutely less valuable pick for pick.
Even if ignore the “free” year of Mack the Bears got and we call the 2019 1sts a wash, the Bears 2020 pick swap is significantly less costly than giving up a 2020 2nd rounder outright. The Bears gain back some value on the other 2020 pick swap.
The Chiefs trading down 8 spots in the 2019 3rd round is probably equivalent to the Bears 2019 6th (bet we see a trade close to that during the draft).
There’s some variability here I suppose, if by some stretch the Bears finish in the bottom 5 and the Raiders finish in the top 10, then that 2020 pick swap is actually way more costly, but right now that’s pretty unlikely.
Here’s another way to frame it visually.
Bears Cost vs. Chiefs Cost
Future (2019) 1st (24th overall) < 2019 1st (29th overall)
Future (2019) 6th (196 overall) = 2019 Pick Swap (3rd rounders, -8 spots)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (1st rounder for a 2nd rounder, projecting -15 spots) < Future (2020) 2nd (TBD overall)
Future (2020) 3rd > Nothing
Future (2020) Pick Swap (6th rounder for a 5th rounder, projecting +15 spots) < [COLOR=“Red”]Nothing
[/COLOR]
Edit: Just realized I forgot the Bears gave an extra 2020 3rd rounder. So if you ignore the “Future” pick penalty then the argument breaks down.
I expect the Browns in the playoffs this year. Mark my words, they’re gonna be good.
I’m not invested in this issue much at all, but I’m a bit … surprised? … at the mental gymnastics you go through to justify this thinking. Draft picks in the next draft to occur (made in September) are somehow less valuable than draft picks to occur in the next draft (made in April, before the next draft) is odd to me. I get that the return (having the player for the season) is better (which completely ignores the salary issue, but whatever), but the cost is the same.
Again, I’m not invested, but it strikes me that you’re trying really hard to make an untenable point.
Mental gymnastics? I didn’t invent the concept of future picks being less valuable.
When was the last time you saw a team trade this year’s first round pick straight up for next year’s first round pick? If they are equal, teams would.
Typically you have to throw in a 2nd rounder for the pleasure of accelerating a 1st round pick by a year. But whatever.
It’s pretty simple. Think of it this way.
Let’s say it’s coming up on draft time, and you have a star running back that another team really wants; he’s a proven veteran that fits their scheme and they’re willing to give a lot for him. You negotiate and decide he’s worth a first round and second round pick. You now have a lousy run game. If you got those picks for this year, you can draft the best running back in the first round and maybe a solid one in the third you can develop or to add depth.
If those picks are for next year… Whoops. You have to go a whole year without a decent RB. Or spend an existing pick and maybe give up that pass rusher you could have used. It sure would be nice if those picks were for this year.
Another reason why picks for the current season are more valuable… You know now what you need and who’s in the draft. You know how useful those picks are. You have no idea how useful a pick will be next year. Maybe you’ll need a QB and everyone after the first round sucks, and so a second round draft pick next year won’t help much. And so on. It’s better to buy the pig you see than buy the one in a poke, and find out later there was a cat in that bag all along.
Forgot to add this and the edit window closed…
You also know when each team is picking this year, you won’t know next year. That first round pick next year might be the first pick or the 30th. That makes it even more of a gamble.
Yeah, I get that concept. Have for awhile, thanks.
The new concept you’re bringing up is that somehow acquiring a draft pick in September for the next draft is more valuable than acquiring a draft pick in April for the very next draft. That’s what you are trying to show, and I’m just not seeing it.
The Bears, in September traded a first round draft pick to the very next draft to be held. Seattle, in April (before the next draft) did the same. Pretty even. The Bears threw in a 6th rounder in the next draft to be held, while Seattle swapped 3rds pick (which is moving up from 92 to 84), seems pretty comparable too.
But then the Bears threw in a first round pick and a third round pick in the 2nd next draft, and got back a 2nd rounder and a fifth, while Seattle gave up a second round pick in the 2nd next draft. Now, to me, it seems that the Bears gave up more for than the Chiefs for that draft.
YMMV, of course. But this idea that somehow a draft pick for the next draft is more valuable in September than April just doesn’t work for me. Sure the benefit is a bit more because you have the year with him (although that benefit is offset because now you’re the team making him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL), but the cost doesn’t change.
That’s not what is happening. Both trades were for the same next draft to be held and the one after that. The only difference is that some were acquired in September, while some were in April. Maybe don’t think of it as “next year’s draft” when it’s actually “the next draft to be held”.
Grant Paulsen (DC area radio host and sports reporter) tweeted yesterday a rumor that Dan Snyder has taken over the war room and is trying to move into the top 5. This is bad. This is really bad. This QB class is NOT worth moving up even a couple of spots for. Hopefully if they move up it’s at least for Bosa or Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen, but we all know it’s not.
(well, granted, this is probably really good if you’re the 49ers, Jets, Raiders, or Bucs, or even Arizona, but this is extremely bad for the Redskins)
Again, in April you know what draft picks are worth and what your needs will be. In September you don’t. You also don’t know in September where a particular draft pick is going to fall, in April you do. Acquiring picks with known values is inherently more valuable than getting unknown picks.
What your specific team needs doesnt change the value of the pick. If you think, “hey, our team needs a TE” in September does absolutely nothing to effect the value of the draft pick when you make it in April.
Sure, but it can go both ways. If I had to choose between having a pick I think will be in the 10-20 range and pick 16, I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice. There is value in surety, but is that surety really worth the value the Bears gave up? Not even close for me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Drew Sample
I nominate Greedy Williams to inspire the worst puns after an interception.
They were for the same draft, but there was a whole NFL season in between. That’s kinda the important detail you seem to conveniently be ignoring.
That was pretty much the point of my last comment, I also explained why an entire playing season makes a difference. But whatever, you can’t change minds.
Already on the record for knocking Murray. The Cardinals just lit their franchise on fire for a decade.
Maybe they can use the first pick in next year’s draft to pick the next franchise QB.
Let’s revisit this mid-season (provided Murray starts, assuming he will). I happen to think he’s going to be productive, even in that woeful offense at Arizona.