Oops, I just noticed that the link from my last post doesn’t work. Let’s try that again, shall we?
Oh, and while we’re discussing the draft: Loser’s Curse Haunts the First Round.
Once again, Mike Ditka is vindicated over the Ricky Williams “fiasco” a few years ago in the draft.
Whyzzat?
Yeah, I think I remember reading the same thing in FO as well. It probably was the same guy.
My basic point still stands: Why is that guy writing for the Wall Street Journal, as opposed to Sports Illustrated? It’s odd.
Is the “Senior Blip” theory from FO as well?
Note: I corrected (or at least I tried to) your link in this quote based on your sibsequent post.
No, I don’t think so. Their college QB projection system, which they’ll unveil in the upcoming book, focuses on completion percentage and games started.
Here’s the preview of the system on their website. Like the WSJ article, they also say Leinart looks like the best pro this year.
With the money they saved, they kept their free agents and were able to get a couple more proven commodities. They made it to the playoffs and had a rather good defense for a few years there.
Actually, what Ditka did was kind of the inverse of the theory posited by the previous link. Nevertheless, it all ended up the same way in the end.
Well, I guess I better dole out some grades for this debacle. I didn’t watch much of the draft on Sunday, after watching and drinking during the Saturday portion and then going out for a evening of festivities before a bartending shift I was in need of a good sleeping session. Then I had to get up mid-afternoon to meet up with my folks for my birthday dinner. In short, I feel like I’m excused from tuning out for day two.
Just to get the ball rolling, here’s Mel Kiper’s draft grades. You will probably need to borrow an unnamed person’s Insider login to read it. It’s not the most compelling analysis though, while his discussion of the players is sound and comprehensive as always, all of his grades for every team range from B+ to C. I suppose this is fair since we have no idea if any of these players will amount to squat, but taking a strong opinion on a team shouldn’t be too much to ask. Of course, being opinionated is not something I struggle with.
To begin with I’ll cover the bloodbath that is the Bears draft. Here’s Mel’s comments first:
Here’s my take. I’ll reiterate what I said earlier in the thread, I have faith in the Bears ability to scout and draft defensive talent, especially relatively unknown small school talent, due to the rate at which they’ve succeeded in the past years. Angelos was equally good in his years in Tampa Bay. Generally speaking I think the Bears landed a great crop of athletes and I’m convinced that Manning, Dvoracek and Anderson will be eventual starters and immediate contributors.
Still, they seem to be at a complete loss when it comes to evaluating the “economics” of the draft. By that I don’t mean dollars and contracts but player value and draft position value. More is not always better and sometimes a single first rounder is better than 2 second rounders. Best player available is a proven concept and if a stud falls to you you take him, and worry about trading up to get that lower rated need player if you must as opposed to trading down in some myopic need to address a need position without reaching.
In short, my bitterness about them passing on Chad Jackson has not abated. I’m curious what would have happened if the Steelers had not moved up to nab Holmes, I’m guessing that with his return skills the Bears would have made that pick instead of trading back. Even if you felt he wasn’t the ideal fit at that pick, when he slid to #36 you should have done what the Pats did and move up to get him. Shockingly dumb move, really. The Bears currently have Moose Muhammad, who was pretty average last year and dropped tons of balls and who really only has a couple years left in his body. Bernard Berrian, an over achieving stick figure. He showed some potential, but he’ll never dominate and good corners make him disappear. His barely average return ability is the only reason for optimism. They have Mark Bradley, the real bright spot in the group. He’s got blazing speed and performed great as a rookie, however he got hurt so we’ll see if his speed suffers and if durability is a persistent problem. Justin Gage is the only other notable name and he sucks. They’ve got some rookies and practice squad players who the team has high hopes for but not a one is a realistic replacement for Muhammad when he finally breaks down for good. Chad Jackson would have been an ideal longterm replacement for him. With WRs taking time to develop, especially #1s, having Moose under contract to tutor Jackson (who by most accounts needed some refinement to go with his crazy speed and size) is too good an opportunity to miss.
On every draft board I saw Danieal Mainning was projected as a mid-third rounder. The Bears essentially wasted their acquired 2nd round pick by taking him there. They could have kept that 1st round pick and still landed this guy who they apparently we targeting. He will probably be excellent, but they got nothing from trading back.
The pick of Devin Hester is utterly indefensible. He doesn’t possess any notable DB skills. At one point he was projected as a future star due to athletic skills but no one I know of projected him anywhere near the 2nd round, he was universally a 2nd day type player. His only respectable talent is as a return man, however the Bears have publicly announced following the draft that Berrian is still the starter at that position. So, they are either lying or they didn’t see RS as a key need which makes this pick even more dumbfounding. Again, there were serious need players available here with great value.
Dvoracek is a guy I have no complaints about, good player and good value. He’s an athletic and crazy strong DT from Oklahoma who scored a 41 on his Wonderlic test. :eek: I didn’t actually see this pick announced because I was busy trying to recover from throwing myself off the balcony when the Cardinals drafted Pope just before this pick. The Bears publicly announced that they didn’t see TE as a need position. Um, WHAT!?!?!? Having a 6’8", 260 lb body with pass catching skills and 4.65 speed is really not a luxury this team needs? Seriously? With a young developing QB a big, rangy TE wouldn’t be an asset over a superfluous positional enigma in Hester? Utterly insane.
Jamar Williams is a good pick. He addressed the discussed need the Bears have for depth at OLB. This guy tackles well and has good speed. His shortcomings will be concealed if the Bears are able to slot him alongside Urlacher and Briggs on the weak side. As expected the Bears seem to get into form late in the draft where evaluating talent is more critical than establishing value.
Mark Anderson is rated as the 7th best DE prospect by Scouts Inc. If that’s accurate and his measurables are valid this guy is a real steal. He played as part of a dominating SEC defense and he’s got room for improvement in both size and skills. With quality coaching he’ll be a great fit with the Bears. One of his criticisms is that he plays too fast and out of control. Is apt to over-pursue plays. In Ron Riveria and Lovie Smith’s style of defense that reads a strength, not a weakness.
JD Runnels is a stud blocker at FB and by all accounts is NFL ready as a lead blocker. He could elevate the Bears running game from adequate to superior. The Bears clearly hope this guy is the next Lorenzo Neal. Ideally he’ll prove to have better than apparent pass catching skills out of the backfield as a outlet. Even if he lacks this talent he’ll be a tremendous asset on first and second down. Excellent.
I’ve heard nothing discussed about Tyler Reed, but if he makes the roster as a backup to an already rock solid OL I’m content. Decent Guards are crucial to a running team and getting this guy into camp for a long look might be a coup. Scouts Inc has him listed as the 35th OG out there and the Bears took him as the 11th off the board, I’ll trust that they saw some real potential.
The most frustrating thing is that they could have remained in the first round and gotten Chad Jackson and still landed Manning with their 2nd round pick. The lower half of the draft would look exactly the same. I’d have been ecstatic. They could have traded back and still landed Pope as the second 2nd rounder. In either case they would have only lost Devin Hester. It’s just infuriating that such a solid backend of the draft is spoiled by two monumental cock-ups on the front end.
It’s also annoying that we signed Ricky Manning Jr for $20 million, a guy up on felony assault charges, from the Panthers only to watch them nab a replacement in potential stud Richard Marshall right after our silly Hester pick. They got a guy who Angelos coveted and a guy we could have had. So not only did we take a possible bust in Hester at way over his value, we missed a chance to rat-fuck the Panthers who punked us in the playoffs. Grrr!
My grades? 1st & 2nd rounds: D; 3rd - 7th rounds: A; Net Grade: C
Later I’ll review some of the notable teams drafts. Especially the Packers, Lions, Vikings, Pats, Giants, Jets as well as my choices for best and worst draft. Basically I’ll cover the SDMB posters favorite teams and the Bears divisional rivals.
Lets hear you recaps too.
Here’s Sports Illustrated’s projected top ten for next year. I’m posting it here in hopes we can laugh at it in 363 days.
- New Orleans Saints - Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
- Minnesota Vikings - Michael Bush RB, Louisville
- Houston Texans - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
- Detroit Lions - Justin Blalock, Tackle, Texas
- Tennessee Titans - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
- New York Jets - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
- Chicago Bears - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
- San Francisco 49ers - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
- Buffalo Bills - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
- Green Bay Packers - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
That is just utterly absurd. Has there ever been a draft which featured 8 of the top 10 picks being offensive players? When was the last time 3 RBs went in the top 10? That is blatantly lazy journalism. You can bet Mel Kiper’s board won’t look anything like that with the exception of Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson being near the top.
Additionally, the Packers will not be the worst team in the league considering Favre is back and they still play in a pretty soft division. Hell, last season things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Pack and they only fell to 5th worst.
The Bears won’t be anywhere near 4th worst either with that defense. From homefield in the playoffs to 4th worst overall? Insane. I won’t even mention the contradiction in having both the Packers and Bears in the bottom 4, I suppose the Lions and Vikings are both going to go 12-4…
Oh wait! The Lions are picking 7th and the Vikings are listed picking 9th! Apparently the NFC North won’t win a single inter-divisional game. And the team winning the division will do so with a 6-10 record. What a fucking idiot.
It’s not shock that the other 6 teams all come from 3 divisions too. :rolleyes: Obviously this guy doesn’t buy that whole “parity” thing.
One more comment about the Bears. They didn’t draft a Punter and Steve Weatherford is available as an undrafted FA. A Punter who started 4 straight years in the Big Ten on my atrocious alma mater Illinois. Clearly he’s tested and proven. He needs to go to camp as a Bear. Not only do we desperately need a reliable punter we need one who can double as a kickoff specialist and he can. With Ron Turner’s connection there I’m more than a little optimistic that this will work out. He’s also a hometown kid and used to kicking in some nasty weather. Perfect fit. The Bears can’t possibly fuck this up.
The just because the Vikes’ll be trading up from the 36th pick.
Shut up.
It could happen.
Shut up!
Hmm, so you’re saying the Vikings will have the 4th worst record…yeah, I buy that.
In case you didn’t notice, the 36th pick in the 4th pick in the 2nd round.
No, I’m just stupid. I meant the 32nd pick.
:smack:
When, when will I learn never to put any numbers in any of my posts?
:smack: :smack: :smack:
And another for good measure:
:smack:
Heh. I knew what you were aiming for but I had to call you on that one. I threw the caveat at the end just in case other readers might have glossed over the statements without registering the mistake.
Stay tuned for a Packers draft review I’m throwing together now.
I’ll reply to some things Omni offered, and then a few original comments about the Pack and the draft as a whole. That should blow my next hour or so.
First off, Kiper’s grades are pretty useless, since they are so close together. But it seems identical to fantasy football drafts; almost everybody is happy and think they did fine right after the draft. Which would explain all the C’s and B’s.
Onto the Bears:
The thing that stuck out to me about their draft was their lack of drafting on the offensive side of the ball. They have a solid to outstanding defense, and the 29th ranked offensive, and they draft 5 defensive players, and wait to the sixth round to get a fullback and a guard. Seriously, what the fuck? As a Packer fan, I was happy to see it, but it just made no sense to me, especially given the talent available that they passed on. Are they that happy with Fred Miller and Terrance Metcalf? Where the heck is an honest to god playmaker on the team? Are they that confident that Mark Bradley is the solution, and that Desmond Clar, willl suddenly blossom? And don’t get me started on Grosston or Ortman or whoever they got playing QB (actually I’m thinking Griese will be the starter, because Grossman will catch a severe cold and be unable to play all season). Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson are a fine pair of runningbacks, but they got crap everywhere else? How do you not try and improve that glaring weakness through the draft?
Now, the players they did get:
Daniel Manning
Agreed, except for the part of him being excellent. Actually, he very well maybe, because he reminds me a bit of Nick Collins, a small school guy who has amazing skills, but needs refinement. He should do fine in a year or two.
Devin Hester
Once again, I agree with Omni, but even moreso. He has the opportunity to be a great return guy, but do you blow a early pick on a guy just to return kicks, especially when he comes out early, is dumb as a post, and has a bad attitude. This pick was horrible.
Dusty Dvoracek
I looked at this guy briefly because the Pack may need another guy in the middle, and he didn’t really impress me. He’s a beast to be sure, but he’s slow, and unless you run at him, he won’t make a play. He’s also has character issues and had to go to anger management classes. Although I like his competitiveness, and he has the ability to be a force within 7 yards of where he starts, I don’t think he’ll be more than a rotational player, especially with Tommy Harris, Tank Johnson, and Ian Scott sitting in Chicago too.
Jamar Williams
The fourth round is when they start to draft with the slightest consideration of need. He may be a good pick, but he seems to be a career underacheiver who doesn’t play like he measures. As NFL says about him: “He would be a solid free-agent signing because of his strength and instincts, but he may struggle to make it in the NFL because of his lack of athleticism, playing speed and explosiveness.”
Mark Anderson
A great pick, I think. The only real knock on this guy is that he’s not big enough to be a dominant de, but also not fast enough to be a Dwight Freeney pass rush. I think he’ll work out well.
JD Runnels
If you’re happy with a fullback who is one inch taller and only 15 pounds bigger than your starting runningbacks, more power to you. I doubt he’ll ever be more than a backup at a forgotten position.
Tyler Reed
I don’t know him, but he’s a 6’3" 300 pound guard from Penn State, so there’s nothing wrong with picking him. ,
Mine: First Day: D Second Day: C- Overall: C-.
The Bears draft will be defined by who they didn’t pick rather than who they did. They didn’t help their horrid offense much, they didn’t get difference makers, and at best, added depth where they seemed set. Good for them, good for the Packers.
And speaking of the Packers, I’ll repeat mostly what I said earlier, with a few extra thoughts: To be Continued…
First Day:
AJ Hawk (1st rd, 5th pick), OLB Ohio St.
Daryn Colledge (2nd rd, 47th pick) G/T Boise State
Greg Jennings (2nd rd, 52nd pick) WR, Western Michigan
Abdul Hodge (3rd rd, 67th pick) ILB, Iowa
Jason Spitz (3rd rd, 75th pick), C/G, Louisville.
The Pack made a ton of trades, including getting the 37th pick for Javon Walker. Although I think Walker was worth a first rounder, I have no problems getting that high of a second rounder for him. A good trade for the Pack to get rid of a problem.
So the Pack were sitting there with the 36th and 37th picks of the draft, and I was quite happy. Then they traded down. When it happened, I was a bit miffed. And by “a bit miffed” I mean frothing at the mouth infuriated. Some players we passed on by trading down: Chad Jackson, Winston Justice, Jimmy Williams, and the second best guard in the draft Lutui. They did get 2 late thirds and an early fourth for trading down, but, with those players there, I think they gave up too much. It works out, basically, getting Colledge instead of Lutui, and Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz for Chad Jackson. Let’s just say I’m not overly impressed. They did the trade down again in the third round, and now have a couple picks in the early 4th round. Those trades I don’t mind because there wasn’t the talent on the board that was there in the second round. Personally, I think the Pack fucked up. But I said that about Nick Collins, so what do I know.
TT, once again went with small school guys that I didn’t know much about. Here’s the breakdown so far:
AJ Hawk - Great pick and a great player. He’ll have an immediate positive impact and, paired with Barnett and possibly Hodge, we have a nice linebacker crew. I have no problem letting Leinart and Vernon Davis go to fill in a team need with an outstanding player.
Colledge - He’s undersized and not technically proficient enough to be a tackle, but will be a good to great guard. He’s fast enough to pull on sweeps and screens, which the Pack do a fair amount of, and is strong for his size. Much better in pass protection and a 4 year starter whose well developed so he can start right away, which will make Favre happier. I think he’ll do fine, because he’s a good fit. Another smaller school guy.
Greg Jennings - Dumb pick. Not only trading away Chad Jackson, but I’m not impressed by this guy much and he could have been had much later. He’s extremely productive guy from a small school. He’s only 5’11", 197 lb, with a 4.53 40, so he’s not a big guy, or a burner. He’s a smallish possession receiver who has great stats, but hasn’t had to play the best of the best. If we’re lucky, he’ll develop into a Donald Driver clone, but he’ll never be a Javon Walker. I’m not impressed, and they could have done much better.
Abdul Hodge - Great pick. Another young linebacker that is smart and fast. He may have some problems if asked to go into coverage, but he’s great against the run, if a bit undersized. He’ll need a widebody to keep lineman off of him, but he’s a potential starter right out of the gate. I like!
Jason Spitz - Good pick, with risk. He’s versatile, and can play guard or center. I’m guessing he’ll start at guard, and eventually move to center, but it all depends on how Scott Wells does at center. He’s a bit of project, because he’s a bit sloppy in technique and effort. However, he could turn into a dominant player because the size, meanness, and aggressiveness, but could also be a bust cause of his head.
Overall: The Pack filled their biggest needs, getting one amazing and one great linebacker, and a couple of interior linemen. That makes me very happy. But they still need some help in the secondary, and could use a couple of picks at skill positions on offense. So far, I like the players they got, but I’m pissed at the players they passed on. I’m not impressed with Jennings either.
Second Day
Cory Rodgers (4th Round, 104th pick), WR/KR TCU
Will Blackmon (4th Round, 115th pick) CB/WR Boston College
Ingle Martin (5th Round, 148th pick) QB Furman
Tony Moll (5th Round, 165th pick), T/G Nevada
Johnny Jolly (6th Round, 183rd pick), DT Texas A&M
Tyrone Culver (6th Round, 185th pick), FS Fresno State
Dave Tollefson (7th Round, 253rd pick), DE NW Missouri State
Goddamn that’s a lot of picks. Sitting at the top of the 4th round, the Packers could have reevaluated and gotten some talent that had fallen. As I stated earlier, I wanted Gabe Watson most, and then Victor Adenmanyu, but those didn’t pan out. Let’s see what we did get:
Cory Rodgers: Another guy who came out a year early. He’s fast… and that’s about it. He’ll be an immediate help as a return guy on special teams, but other than that, he’s not much. He may make a speedy 4th receiver, but that’s about it. Unlike the Bears wasting a 2nd rounder on a return guy, I don’t mind the 4th round pick on one. There were certainly other players I’d rather, but he’ll do fine.
Will Blackmon: This guy intrigues me. Pro Football Weekly had him as their 10 best CB, which, in the 4th round, would be amazing value. I’m concerned because he played 3 years as CB, and last year as a WR. Now, that either means he couldn’t make it as a CB, or, as I’ve heard, he’s willing to sacrifice his own wellbeing for the team and move where he is needed. He’s got a chance to really shine, but he had a goddawful Senior Bowl week, and needs some serious coaching before he’ll be ready. A project, but with a ton of upside.
Ingle Martin: Whatever. A big armed guy who couldn’t beat out Chris Leak at Florida and had to go to Furman of all places. A nice sleeper with a huge arm who needs to spend a few years in NFL Europe. A nice project if you can wait 5 years for a strong armed, productive quarterback. With Aaron Rodgers, the Pack may have those 5 years…
Tony Moll: He’s a smallish OT, who, if I had to guess, will be moved to G because he’s neither big enough, nor fast enough, to be an NFL tackle. A versatile guy who can fill in spots and could be a big help on special teams.
Johnny Jolly: Despite having a hilarious name, I like the upside on this pick. He fell because he’s an injury waiting to happen, and, in fact, will probably be unavailable because of ankle surgery early this season. But, and this is a big butt (pun intended), I love his upside here. If you like Dvorachek in the 3rd round, getting this guy in the 6th is amazing. He’s another strong, but not very mobile, DT, who tires out and needs to get his head straight. If he actually does what he is capable of doing, he’ll be a great rotational guy on the defensive line. I love this pick.
Tyrone Culver: I like this guy, but not necessarily the pick. He’s incredibly smart (wants to be a dentist), and a guy who can call plays on the field. However, he doesn’t have elite speed or coverage abilities, so I don’t think he’ll ever be a NFL starter. However, he’d make a solid backup, and he seems like a smart guy, so I like him.
Dave Tollefson: A speed rusher from a small school. I don’t expect much, but he’s supposedly fast for a big guy. I don’t expect much from him.
All told, the second day was an intriguing mix of guys with big upsides and fill-in guys who shouldn’t be starting in the NFL. I’m excited that we got what seems to be a couple good return guys, and I love Blackmon’s and Jolly’s upside. It’s too much to hope they’ll both develop into starters, but I love the picks. And I like getting a couple guys who will be solid backups. I think Ingle Martin was a wasted pick, but with so many picks, and his nice small school production, he’s worth a flyer.
Grades: Day One: B+; Day Two: B+; Overall: B+
That’s more than enough for now, but I will note that I think Arizona and Philadelphia had outstanding drafts, while the Vikes, REdskins (of course), and the Falcons had the worst draft. The best pick of the draft was Arizona getting Leinart, and the worst was the Texans blowing this year, and possibly the next 5, taking Vince Young.
And going from one WR in the first round to this year to two in the top ten is a little hard for me to swallow. I shared your questions about the Pack and Bears, and I don’t see Minnesota or my Bills being that awful either.
I don’t understand why nobody has any love for Moose. The last time he had an actual quarterback he got the most fantasy points of all receivers in the league. That means he had monster stats. Don’t cite drops unless you also think Terrell Owens – famous for his alligator arms – also sucks.
As for age, he was from the same draft class as Joe Horn, Keyshawn Johnson, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, and Amani Toomer, right? There’s still some game left in those guys, don’t you think? At least enough for this year, surely.
ROUND 1
Ernie Sims. This is the same Ernie Sims that has suffered no more than 5 concussions during his college career. Apparently, they’re using leather helmets in college, because professional helmets mean no more concussions. Ask Troy Aikman, Kurt “Statue” Warner, and Steve Young. Once again, I am vindicated. The Jets desperately wanted to move up and get the Lions’ pick, but didn’t want to pay with their second rounder. I don’t know why the Jets didn’t want to pull the trigger, because it would have pulled in one of the best drafts ever (at least the day after). Needless to say, daddy doesn’t like this pick. Couldn’t we have traded it? Couldn’t we have taken Bunkley or Wimbley? I’d have been happy with either one of those at that point, dammit. However, if he can keep his bell unrung, then he should be an upgrade (I hope).
ROUND 2
Marcus McNeill, Andrew Whitworth, Darryl Tapp. These guys were taken after Josh Bullocks. Now, I’ve got no big problem with Mr. Bullocks, but we’ve already got a safety that does the same thing, Kenoy Kennedy. Meh.
ROUND 3 (ding ding!)
Gabe Watson was still around. Might have traded up for Ashton Yobouty or even have taken Ko Simpson or Will Blackmon. Nope. We don’t take them. We take Brian Calhoun, which isn’t bad seeing as the Detroit media are now reporting that Artose Pinner, our backup, is a lazy bastard and apparently needs a good replacin’. Couldn’t we have done it with the guy from UCLA? Gr. This upsets me.
ROUNDS 4 TO 7
Where’s Gabe Watson? Gabe Watson!! What in holy screaming fuck were we thinking? Dan Wilkinson is retiring. We need to replace him, right? No, apparently Jesus is going to come down and play nose tackle for us. He better be good with the double team. Alton McCann, a corner from Virginia is the notable one. I don’t know much about him. No Rodrique Wright? Come on, with him and Gabe Watson, out defensive line would be beefy! What’s wrong with beefy? Do we not like beefy? Omar Jacobs was a HUGE steal here.
Jonathan Scott was taken in the sixth. Supposedly the Lions are happy with him. I’d have liked a Jeremy Bloom in here too to make sure our special teams stays special.
Fred Matua was a good pick in the seventh. That one is Trevor-approved.
All in all, the draft was meh…but it could have been a very good one. This is why I need to be GM of the Lions, dammit!!!
The Packers were probably the most active team in the draft and they achieved their main goals of bolstering their defense and moving Javon Walker. All in all that’s a big plus. Lets look at it pick by pick and I’ll try not to let my general bias and feelings of ill-will towards the Cheeseheads color the analysis too much.
AJ Hawk is a quality addition, no doubt. Personally I’d have wanted Vernon Davis in this slot and I’ve made no secret of how good I think he’s going to be. Don’t think I’m not doing back-handsprings knowing the Bears D won’t have to match up with him twice a season for the next 12 years. That doesn’t mean Hawk is a bad pick though. He’s a great value and a perfect need-fit for the Pack. Still, I don’t view him as the next Ray Lewis and Zach Thomas. His ceiling is probably closer to that of Dan Morgan and he lacks elite speed and size. He’s maxed out his frame and unlike Chad Greenway shouldn’t be expected to add any mass. He’ll be steady for many years but I think he’ll get washed out of plays unless he has a dominant D-line in front of him.
Here we’ll discuss the Javon Walker trade. Getting the 37th pick in return is a pretty solid option considering how Walker undercut their leverage by being so petulant. All along I argued that Denver was the perfect fit for him and I’m happy to see that’s how it played out. Realistically I think he’s worth more than the 37th overall pick, but under the circumstances it’s a fair value.
What happened next was staggering in its stupidity. Here the Pack sits with the 36th and 37th picks. Chad Jackson is still sitting on the board and the Pack just traded away their only play making WR. What possible scenario is it advantageous to give away the opportunity to take the perfect replacement? This is probably dumber than the Bears passing on him since he’s an even more ideal value here and they got less in return. Did the Pats convince them they weren’t taking Jackson and they assumed he’d be there with the 37th? Did they even ask? Are they actively trying to piss off Favre?
As for that 37th pick, it’s somewhat baffling that the Packers traded it away too. There were still some superb talents on the board here. They could have landed LenDale White or Winston Justice, both first round talents at need positions for the Pack. Justice will be a dominant OT, character issues aside, he’s the key reason White, Bush and Leinart were able to prove how good they could be. Even taking Jimmy Williams would have made perfect sense. Collecting picks is one thing, but considering they were just on the heels of gaining picks from the Pats did they really need to get 2 picks in every round? Are all these guys going to make the team?
Moving on to guys they actually did take, we see Daryn Colledge. Could be a good pick, but I’ll take a page from my Bears critique and point out that he’d have been there for them in the 3rd round. Better talent was on the board at DB and OT, especially McNeil. He’ll be a great bookend and is much more polished than Colledge. All in all a strange pick considering the number of picks they had in the next 30.
Greg Jennings is a nice pick but another guy I feel like was a bit of a reach where another player at the same position would have been preferred. Stovall has more upside and competed against elite competition. Jenning will be an adequate pro and I love the way he competes, but Stovall reminds me of Marcus Robinson before his injury. I see this as another reach, but not as egregious as the previous one.
The Packers best pick of the day was Abdul Hodge, scoring a highly touted LB in the third round (how the hell did the get the 3rd pick in the 3rd round by the way?) is nice but Hodge was totally underrated making this pick outstanding. Personally I prefer Hodge to Greenway and think he’ll make some eyes pop in GB, he may even overshadow Nick Barnett. Had the Packers known he’d be available (and it was pretty likely at this spot) and been targeting him, that Hawk over Davis pick looks more vexing.
Jason Spitz is a guy I don’t have much knowledge about but he doesn’t appear to be worth taking as the 5th interior lineman in the draft. Again, he feels like another reach, considering Eslinger was still available in the 6th round this looks like a ugly pick. They took a OT in Colledge who’ll probably play OG and they took a OC here who’ll probably play OG….do they have an aversion to drafting players at the position they played in college? Bad pick considering this is what they got in return for passing on Jackson
Corey Rodgers and Will Blackmon look like desperate choices. Good athletes at a need position, but there’s some great players coming off the board here at other non-skill positions they need. Dumervil, Gabe Watson, Ko Simpson and a collection of Offensive Lineman who are probably the equal of Spitz. My guess….the Packers looked at their press and their lineup after the first day and realized they pissed away chances to help themselves on offense. These picks feel like the price they paid for passing on Chad Jackson. They’d have been better off with fewer picks and a couple standouts.
Ingle Martin and Tony Moll. As for Moll….who? I won’t pretend to have anything constructive to offer about this cat, though as noted before they passed on McNeil who’s a much safer choice than this one. Spitz might have still been there with that pick. Martin is a pretty nice pick though. He’s got a cannon for an arm which always makes me warm in the pants. He won’t be viewed as an immediate competitor for Rodgers job as heir-apparent but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t become the most popular man in GB when Aaron struggles in 2007. I don’t worry about the transfer from Florida, he’ll be a much more mature guy now and he was very productive at Furman. Any time you get a QB with an elite arm and a 61% completion rate you should be optimistic.
Of the rest, Jolly is the only one I’ve heard of and he appears to be a solid value at this point, Scouts Inc. predicted he could go as an early 2nd day pick. Adding a wide-body will help the young LBs assuming he can devour NFL blocks. He’ll need to add a little size to excel.
Overall Grade: C- Getting Hawk and Hodge were great additions, but the rest of the draft was very hapless. They had a ton of picks and I’m sure a few will become productive. Still, all those trades back make it appear that they are a team without a plan. They basically said, “we’ll take what we can get”. They used up 3 picks to find a starting WR when they could have taken a top prospect in the 2nd round. They added 2 lineman early who are expected to have to move to a different position and passed on bigger people when they were available. The latter half of the draft is filled with guys who weren’t even rated on most peoples boards.
The Packers realistically could have had a first day that consisted of: AJ Hawk (or Vernon Davis), Chad Jackson, Marcus McNeil (or Maurice Stovall), Abdul Hodge and Max Jean-Gilles. I see no realistic reason to consider this draft to be any better than the Bears except for the fact they were drafting at the top of it instead of the bottom of it.