NFL offseason discussion (up to but not including draft)

The Game Room
121

Anderson turned down a 3 year deal with 20m with 10m guaranteed. Really crazy, unless there’s been some tampering and he knows there’s interest in him.

He could be trying to hit UFA next year but since he may not even be the starting QB this year, this leaves the possibility that he knows a team will be willing to give him a big contract and compensate the Browns for him.

Also, GMs and by extension knowledgable fans way overvalue draft picks. The rumor is Corey Williams to the Browns for a late 2nd rounder. People were objecting to giving up the pick… if you could find someone as good as Corey Williams at that pick, you’d be really happy - so why not just take Williams?

122

It doesn’t matter what he does in the future, he won a Superbowl. He’s already a New York immortal alongside Phil Simms. I’m not saying he’s a top 5 QB yet; I’m saying that he has proven to be worth the trade that brought him to New York.

Tell me you wouldn’t trade two 1sts plus a 3rd and a 5th if it would bring the Lions a Lombardi trophy.

123

I heard that too. They still have to work out a long term contract, but I can’t imagine that would be problem.

I think the trade is one of those that is a win/win/win. For Corey, he gets a fat new contract and the adulation (and pressure) of being a vital cog to a team. (but he does have to leave beautiful Green Bay for ugh Cleveland). For the Browns, they get a young, very good lineman to shore up their horrible run defense. He can also get to the passer from the inside pretty well also. And giving up only a second rounder, is pretty good price. They are taking a risk, because I think the contract is going to be pretty hefty for a guy who has only 20 starts in 4 years. But he is a hard worker, if a bit flaky. For the Packers, they get a second rounder for a guy who plays at a position the team has some pretty good depth and who was gotten in the 6th round originally. It’s a bit of a risk, because of Pickett’s age and Jolly’s injury, but they drafted Justin Harrell in the first round last year and they have Jenkins who can play inside too. They generally rotate DT’s, so the loss of Williams, even though he’s good, isn’t a killer. And now they don’t have to overpay for him.

I think if the Browns don’t mind a bit of overspending and the Packers avoid injuries on the defensive line, it’s a good trade for everyone.

124

Is there any team in the NFL more effed up than the Oakland Raiders?

I ask because of their latest move was to sign DT Tommy Kelly to a record breaking $50.5 million dollar contract, with $18.5 million guaranteed, making him the highest paid defensive lineman in the NFL. Which leaves only one question.

Who the fuck is Tommy Kelly?

Never recorded over 70 tackles a season.
Never recorded over 5 sacks a season.
Went undrafted in 2004.
Has only played one full season.
Is coming off a torn ACL that ended his season last year.
Even when healthy and starting, the Raiders were 25th against the run.
Has never been to a Pro Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Raiders leader in sacks is a free agent.
Oh Raiders. When will you ever win?

125

When Al Davis retires/dies, and not before.

I’m not that surprised about the Anderson deal. The only quarterback in recent memory who’s managed to keep a first-rounder on the bench for more than two seasons is Brett Favre - and I think Anderson knows he isn’t Brett Favre.

Much better to get a long-term deal with $10+ million guaranteed somewhere else; tell me the Falcons or Bears won’t pony up more than $20 million for him.

I know I would. Hell, we sent the Raiders more than that for Jon Gruden - two 1st rounders, two 2nd rounders, and $8 million.

126

I have a feeling you’re going to be having a lot of heated discussions with fellow NYG fans in the years to come. As happy as I was for Eli to be able to shove it in the face of all his critics, I have a feeling that from now on he’s going to dealing with even more unrealistic expectations.
And Really Not All That Bright, I think you’re making a “wish” bet. I was at every UCF home game and I’m a big fan, but I’d be stunned if Kevin Smith has a huge rookie year. Keep in mind that this is a guy only 3 years removed from being a high school DB, and has spent that time as the feature back in an I-formation offense. NFL coaches are going to be very cautious about having that guy be the only thing between their franchise QB and a blitz.

He’s likely going in the middle rounds to a team that already has a solid #1; throw in the fact that he does not have return skills, and I think you run the real risk of him getting one or two starts via injury, but not getting on the field the rest of the season.

127

I’d make that trade if I were getting that defense. The defense is what did it in the Super Bowl, not Eli. Again, I hope I’m wrong and I hope Eli makes the leap and gets rid of his inconsistencies. We need more good quarterbacks in the league.

128

Sweet God, it must suck to be Raider fan these days.

129

Eh?

They ran plays out of the shotgun at least 25% of the time - including rushes. I’d say, if anything, that blitz pickup is one of his strengths. If he has a weakness it’s running pass patterns - I don’t think I saw him run anything other than flares and short screens last season.

Also, I get that he wasn’t playing against “top tier” competition most of the year (although remember he put 150 yards on Texas), but C-USA was much better last season than it was a couple years back when DeAngelo Williams was in serious contention for the Heisman.

130

Yes, they ran plays from the shotgun – and as you correctly point out many of them were runs, not passes; moreover many of the passes were play-action out of the gun, basically the WV/Oklahoma spread stuff that’s the rage now in college football. (and which, BTW, I think we’ll see a even more of at UCF in the next couple years) You don’t have those offenses in the NFL. You do see a lot of Bill Walsh stuff, and that’s very different from what UCF ran.

I didn’t mention the level of competition; I don’t think that’s a big issue, except insofar as it affects his draft status. Statistically, though, C-USA was much, MUCH worse vs. the run last year that 2 years ago. I think there were something like 4 teams that ran for 200 per game.

131

But for Carson Palmer and the gang, of course.

132

Madieu Williams will sign a big contract with the Vikings…

WTF? How do you expect to upgrade a piss-poor pass defense using players from another piss-poor pass defense? The Vikings had the best group of safeties in the league the last two years and still couldn’t stop anyone. So, they let Dwight Smith go and he signed with the Lions for peanuts… and now they’re giving a guy who isn’t as good $33 million…

That said, I absolutely cannot understand why the Vikings are so bad at defending the pass. They have spent tons of money acquiring very good players and yet their pass defense has been consistently terrible. I realize that everyone passes against them because the run defense is so good but they play Cover-2 most of the time…

furt, I would be stunned if 24K doesn’t go before the 3rd round. Of course, his draft stock will depend a good deal on how good his 40 time at the Combine is, but I think 4.5 or better is likely- he ran a 4.48 as an HS senior. Also, he did play safety in high school, but only during his senior year - he was the starting tailback during his sophomore and junior years.

The pundits seem to agree with me, mostly:
http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_draft/kevin_smith.htm

http://www.thefootballexpert.com/kevinsmithprofile080001.html
http://cfn.scout.com/2/719789.html

Remember, he wasn’t some sort of “system” guy. The UCF offense is set up to feature short passing; Smith was getting 40 carries a game by midseason only because our pass offense was so weak.

By way of comparison, Daunte (Culpepper)'s numbers were system-based. His NCAA-record 70% career completion percentage was based mostly on the fact that he hardly ever threw a pass downfield. I love Daunte, but I’m firmly convinced that his early success in the NFL had a good deal to do with throwing to Randy Moss and Cris Carter, and less to do with his ability.

I’ll go so far as to say I think KS is a better NFL prospect than Culpepper, and I think he may end up being a better NFL player than Asante Samuel, too.

133

Williams didn’t play last year, though - his last season was '05.

134

Whoops. Misread your post.

Anyway, C-USA total rushing yards per game for 2005-2006: 1862.6, or 155.22…

…and for 2007-2008: 2,036.8, or 169.67 per team.

Difference in YPG per team: 14 and a bit. So, okay, I’ll give you that one.

Still, Williams’ production wasn’t quite as good even if you tack 14 extra yards per game onto his totals (2,200 to 2,457, and Smith scored 30 total touchdowns to Williams’ 19).

All of which is a very long-winded way of saying that if Williams is good enough to start for the Panthers, Smith ought to be too. (Williams ran a 4.49 at the Combine, which should be right around what Smith runs).

135

hey, I hope you’re right; I hope he goes in the first round, wins ROY, and goes to Canton. And I do think that long-term he’s an excellent prospect, very possibly the best UCF player ever in the pros. Some of the backs he reminds me of did very well in the NFL – Terrell Davis being the foremost

My point was just that with all of the stuff that I mentioned above, I’m not sure how well he’s going to do, statistically, this year, which is what your bet is. I see him being taken in round 3 by someone like Cleveland or Arizona, who need depth and a future at RB, but who do have a clear #1 to start the season (much the way Williams was in Carolina).

136

…Well…I don’t!

137

I wouldn’t either. I’ve got some really horrible choices for your new name lined up :slight_smile:

138

Hey! Don’t make me start brainstorming!

I might come up with a light drizzle…

139

Derek Anderson just re-signed with the Browns, sez the radio.

140

The Lions might trade Shawn Rogers for Marcus Stroud.