NFL Picks - Week 13

In My Humble Opinion
1

I figured I’d take my turn to put up a template.

Thanksgiving Day Games
New England @ Detriot 12:30pm (Pats by 5½)

Washington @ Dallas 4:05pm (Skins by 1½)

Sunday Games
Miami @ Buffalo 1:00pm (Fish by 2½)

Chicago @ Green Bay 1:00pm (Pack by 9½)

Baltimore @ Cincinnati 1:00pm (Ravens by 3)

Carolina @ Cleveland 1:00pm (Browns by 7½)

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville 1:00pm (Steelers by 3)

Arizona @ Kansas City 1:00pm (Chiefs by 9½)

Atlanta @ Minnesota 1:00pm (Falcons by 3½)

Tennessee @ New York 1:00pm (Giants by 3½)

Denver @ San Diego 4:05pm (Broncos by 3)

Houston @ Indianapolis 4:05pm (Colts by 11)

St. Louis @ Philadelphia 4:15pm (Pick’em)

Seattle @ San Francisco 4:15pm (49ers by 9)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 8:30pm (Bucs by 1)

Monday Night Football
New York @ Oakland 9:00pm (Raiders by 6)
Note, the spread is from Sheridan’s on USA Today, so may be off. Please feel free to adjust if you know better

2

I’ve been MIA here for a number of weeks, but I’ll put in an appearance just long enough so everyone can laugh at me when I pick the Redskins to win at Dallas. Dammit, the streak can’t be allowed to reach double digits! :mad:

So for tomorrow, I’ll take both road teams - to win, and against the spread both. I’ll wait until later in the week to pick Sunday’s games.

3

Hey, I got your back man. Skins are gonna smack the Cowboys down with a quickness. I did appreciate the TMQ (I think it was?) article on how ridiculous it is to give the same two teams home field advantage in the short week every year, just in the name of tradition.

At least, if you’re going to insist on going with tradition, make sure their opponents have their bye week beforehand, so they don’t have to play, and then fly off to play an away game 4 days later.

4

Well there’s nothing to be thankful about Thanksgiving’s football offerings because all four teams suck. I pick the home teams without the spread.

I pick the Bills over the Fish–it’s freakin’ cold up there, Packers over the Bears but not by the spread-Favre’s in choke mode, B-more over Cincy by 6, Browns over the Panthers, Jags beat the Steelers at home by 6, Cards & Chiefs–who cares?, Falcons over the Vikes by 10-yes 10, Giants over the Titans, Chargers beat Broncos by 3, Dungey’s Colts whoop the Texans by 21, if Warner QBs for the Rams I’ll take the Eagles at home by 6, the 'niners will destroy the Seahawks by at least 14, the Raiders at home beat the Jets by 10 Monday night. The big game is Sunday night in the Superdome where the 'aints choke at home at the hands of Warren Sapp and the mighty Bucs. Tampa is really looking forward to some payback and the 'aints are not up to it. TB by 14, at least. The road to San Diego runs through the Big Guava! Are we that far from Gruden meeting the Raiders in the Big Game?

5

Wow, another Bucs fan? Good to see you jump in with your two cents, E72521.

6

I think I’ll take the 2 dogs tomorrow.
Now if I can cut out early from my last class, I can make it to a bar for the afternoon game!

7

Bandwagon picks. REALLY easy picks this week. (No more ties for the remainder of the season, I promise.)

1. Buccaneers
I trust that your jinx concerns have been allayed, Shibboleth? Good. Because this is now the team to beat, and few have paid more dues to reach this point. I’m incredibly relieved to finally see a powerhouse emerge in this loopy season, and I want this squad to run. All the way to…oh, at least the conference championship game.

2. Dolphins
Now that they finally have most of their key players, expect the good times to come back. I’ve completely given up on the Bills at this point…sorry, Drew, but looks like redemption just isn’t in the cards. The Dolphins are now my favorite to win the division.

3. 49ers
Good team wins, bad team loses, more autographs get signed. Consistency…gotta love it, gotta hope for it.

4. Falcons
It take a lot for any Atlanta team to impress me, so it says a lot that I have them here. I don’t particularly like “one man team syndrome” (Olajuwon Theory?), but as long as that one man is healthy, this squad will be a helluva lot of fun to watch.

And a big Thanksgiving surprise…

5. Lions
Let me make this perfectly clear…this one’s for Marty Mornhinweg. I find it downright sickening any time a coach has to take all the blame for the team’s failings. I’m shocked that the Lions defense, which couldn’t stop a lethargic tortoise, is getting a completely free pass. I’m not expecting them to do all that good against the ambitious Patriots, but for the sake of simple justice, a man’s gotta hope.

(Honestly, folks…these are the Lions. That alone is almost a no-win situation.)

Top 10 standings:

  1. Bills - 17
  2. Buccaneers - 14.5
  3. Dolphins, Eagles - 12
  4. Panthers - 11
  5. Packers - 10.5
  6. 49ers, Cardinals - 10
  7. Steelers - 9
  8. Cowboys, Rams - 6

The Billls are still on top, but barring an absolute cataclysm, I’m not picking them again, so their days are definitely numbered. Panthers and Cardinals are also dead in the water and dropping fast. Steelers still have a chance to win my respect, but they may be too far behind at this point to make much of a different.

EDITORIAL POINT OF THE WEEK: Overtime should be settled one of two ways. First, as I mentioned before (I think it was week 9), instead of a kickoff, the toss winner should have the option of taking it on the 10 or giving it away on the opponent’s 10. That makes a “cheap” field goal impossible, and actually makes it a good idea for certain teams to give it away. The other way is to give each team exactly one possession, starting from a point well behind the 25 (let’s say the 50). After the drive ends…whether it be an 8-point touchdown, 7-point touchdown, or field goal…the other team gets it. Whoever gets the better score wins. If both get the same score…it’s a tie.

What? Ties are bad, you say? Well, don’t go for a tie, then. Do the “manhood” thing that was unfairly thrust onto so many college coaches and go for a do-or-die 2-point conversion, or go for it on 4th and goal from the 10. Sudden death overtime should be just that, not an endless series of chances where the winner depends on who botches a 30 yard field goal first. Besides, points scored is one of the tiebreakers, so we can’t have indiscriminate run-ups.

Comments? (Like I even need to ask… :slight_smile: )

8

Note to DKW: I still worry about jinxes. It’s about the only superstitious thing I do. But it’s the CNN/SI one that I worry about. Dr. Z still has the Falcons ranked number 1 and the Eagles 2, so until they both lose the Bucs won’t grab the top spot.

Thanksgiving Day Games
New England @ Detriot 12:30pm (Pats by 5½)
Gotta go with the Patsies here. Mornhinweg will find a way to lose, it seems.
Patriots 30-21

Washington @ Dallas 4:05pm (Skins by 1½)
See, here already I put superstition about curses aside and go with the Redskins, who are the better team. They’ve got to be beat Dallas in Dallas sometime, right? How about today?
Redskins 21-14

9

Both RTFirefly and I were wrong about the Redskins. I’ll see if I can make up some ground in the Sunday games.

Sunday Games
Miami @ Buffalo 1:00pm (Fish by )
Buffalo to pull the upset in the land of ice and snow here.
Bills 30-21

Chicago @ Green Bay 1:00pm (Pack by )
The Packers will demolish the Bears, who really should have lost last week, also.
Pack 28-7

Baltimore @ Cincinnati 1:00pm (Ravens by 3)
I’m a bit nervous about this one, but will go with the Ravens to prevail nearby. It’s gonna be cold here tomorrow, folks.
Ravens 20-14

Carolina @ Cleveland 1:00pm (Browns by )
Another cold game. Is Lamar Smith going to play or is he still in the pokey?
Doesn’t matter.
Browns 24-14

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville 1:00pm (Steelers by 3)
Kordell continues to confuse everyone, looking decent one play and indecent the next.
Steelers 27-19

Arizona @ Kansas City 1:00pm (Chiefs by )
I think that Marcel Shipp will have more yards but also more fumbles. Priest Holmes will have more touchdowns.
Chiefs 31-21

Atlanta @ Minnesota 1:00pm (Falcons by )
Michael Vick is going to show Randy Moss how a superstar should behave.
Birds 27-24

Tennessee @ New York 1:00pm (Giants by )
I picked, incorrectly, both of these teams to win last week. I’ve gotta be right with one, but which?
Titans 23-17

Denver @ San Diego 4:05pm (Broncos by 3)
AFC West has consistently given me fits all season. Why should this game be any different. This should be a fun duel of premier young RBs in the league. I expect the Chargers to rebound at home.
28-21

Houston @ Indianapolis 4:05pm (Colts by 11)
This should be no problem as the Texans continue to fail to string together wins or get an away victory.
Colts 30-14

St. Louis @ Philadelphia 4:15pm (Pick’em)
If Kurt Warner plays this out the Rams should lose. But I also expect that some of the adrenaline that Philly used last week should have worn off by now. Unless they’re dosing their players with it.
Rams 21-17

Seattle @ San Francisco 4:15pm (49ers by 9)
Seattle should cover this spread, but I don’t think that they can win in SF.
49ers 27-20

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 8:30pm (Bucs by 1)
I just can’t pick the Bucs even if it’s the right thing to do. I’ve also been seeing mixed reports that Deuce is/isn’t going to start.
Saints 24-21

Monday Night Football
New York @ Oakland 9:00pm (Raiders by 6)
I expect Chad to help break the “Jets suck in December curse”. But this probably isn’t the game to do it in.
Raiders 29-24

10

No responses yet? Curious. Well, since I found it fun doing it the first time, here are the recaps:

Patriots -5 1/2 @ Lions: Mornhinweg a little wiser; rest of Lions no better. Pats win and cover.
Redskins + 1 1/2 @ Cowboys: First the Packers turning into the Washington Generals every time they’re at Minnesota, now this. It’s damn scary, I tell ya. “Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons” (gotta love that Sports Guy) easily win outright.
Dolphins @ Bills: See, if the Bills played like this against the Jets, then they’d really be the favorite to win the division, like I mentioned a couple of times. Bills by 14.
Bears @ Packers: Memo to Bears offense…just because you get a lucky bad call that reverses a turnover doesn’t mean you should expect it every damn time. Packers by 10.
Ravens -3 @ Bengals: “Would the lady who left her 11 grandkids in Cinergy Field please take them out…the Bengals are leading them 21-7, and we desperately want them to quit while they’re ahead.” Ravens win (of course) and cover (sigh…).
Panthers @ Browns: A total shocker; Panthers win by 7 and break a streak of 23 losses after summer. It says something about this franchise that that’s considered worthy of celebrating.
Steelers -3 @ Jaguars: Nice stuff of the last-gasp 2 point conversion. Guess they really, really didn’t want another tie. Steelers win; Jags win for real.
Cardinals @ Chiefs: One ESPN.com respondent said that he’d rather watch paint dry than the Cardinals. After this game, he’s probably thinking he was a bit harsh on the paint. Chiefs 49-0; worst loss in Cards history.
Falcons @ Vikings: A Vick of a finish, and a Vickportant win for the suddenly Vicksurgent Falcons. (Yes, I was as amazed as everyone else.) Falcons by the OT touchdown.
Titans & Giants: sigh…what coulda been. Titans by 3.
Broncos -3 @ Chargers: I’m getting damn unnerved at the overwhelming impact overtime has had on this season. I really am. Chargers outright.
Texans +11 @ Colts: Ah, well, it’s not like there anyone expected great things from the Texans. Colts both ways.
Rams even @ Eagles: Eagles with the huge win. The Eagles have now won with three different quarterbacks this season. Somehow, I still have a hard time believing it’s all Kurt Warner’s fault.
Seahawks +9 @ 49ers: Reality still holding firm on the west coast. 49ers coast to victory, just fail to cover.
Buccaneers -1 @ Saints: Sometimes you’re the captain, and sometime’s you’re the poor sap walking the plank. Or something. Saints both ways.

11

Sorry for my absence folks. I was off in some godforsaken part of Minnesota for the last 5 days and was without internet access. I actually had to call a friend to make my Pick 5 pool picks for me. What a pisser. I finally snuck online at a relatives to adjust my Fantasy team and make my confidence league picks.

So, I did all my football related stuff with virtually no thought and no research. And guess what…I did frigging awesome. Go figure.

My OMNI- picks were: New England, Cleveland, Atlanta, Tennessee, and Buffalo

At least I think they were, I didn’t write them down and the website is down and I can’t double check. In any case, I’m pretty sure I went 4-1 this week, losing only the Cleveland game which suprised alot of people. I also only lost 3 matchups in my confidence league, sadly my Cleveland game was a high confidence one, but the others (Tampa and St Louis) were low. I guess I shouldn’t be too proud since quite a few other people did well too. And lastly, my Fantasy team will probably win big this week. Granted it was a no-brainer to play Tomlinson, but I almost benched Bledsoe against Miami at home after a few bad weeks in favor of Pennington, but decided to stick with my stud and it panned out big time. Not to mention the timely addition of one Emmitt Smith to the roster and starting lineup. Good times.

I had been up for about 26 hours when I crashed last night at about 7AM due to a 12 hour drive across 3 states, a few loads of laundry at the parents, and a bartending shift, and as such chose to sleep in and skip the early football games. Since I’d have been watching the Bears piss away another Packer game, its probably for the best. My mood would be far, far worse right now had I actually watched it and not just seen the final score. However, I did notice that the Bears went for 2 at the end of the game and failed, where if they had just accepted loss and taken the PAT they’d have covered. Part of me knows it was the right thing to do, but I’m left feeling a little bitter that all you assholes who picked the Pack didn’t get screwed.

Anyways, thanks for keeping this thing alive the last few weeks to all of you who have contributed. I’m going to try and make a concerted effort to lay out a good post to kick off this coming week. Gotta get back in the swing of things…funny how having a shitty home team can really take the zest out of the anticipation leading up to each Sunday.

12

Correction to DKW

It’s the Tuesday Morning Quarterback you were referring to, not the Sports Guy.

13

Sure, Omni, stay away all week and then come in and BRAG about how you destroyed me in Fantasy play. I didn’t have a bad week, you just had a better week. Feh. I even picked up extra points by grabbing Danny Wuerrfel. It’s the story of my season, I tells ya. The biggest difference might have been the Ravens D (I haven’t seen the actual scores yet).

But I think that I beat you in the SDMB Pick’em league so far. At least I’ve got that. And my health.

What I don’t have is a Bucs road win over the Saints. Which is all I really wanted!

14

Shibbs, I was at least kind enough to not point out who I spanked. You opened that can of workms ;).

Actually, I think the big swing was me picking up Emmitt and starting him. I usually get nothing from my Flex spot. Where my other defense would have also put up something like 15 points too. Since I got you by 23 points and I still have Janikowski left to play, its probably not just one position that was the difference since I had two guys combine for 69 points.

Oh, and I was way off on who my OMNI picks were. Goes to show how little I thought about it, and how many other thoughts I had. Here’s the real picks:

New England, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee, Tampa Bay

You know, I really wasn’t watching that ampa game with the passion and zest I should have been, I bet thats why they lost. Sorry Shibbs, my bad.

15

Hey, I still have Porter left tonight. If he has 3-4 TDs and a couple of hundred yards AND the Polish Junkie pulls a hammy or gets a DUI on the way to the Stadium I could still win. And Shipp was a huge disappointment in my swing spot this week. He should have had some good numbers against KC’s pedestrian defense.

Interestingly, in MOFL, where I have Tomlinson, he only scored 2 points more than Portis (19 vs 17), instead of the 11 point swing here. In that league you score more points for TDs by distance and fewer for yards. So I was cheering Tomlinson on, not realizing that you had him also.

16

Porter’s a bitch. [sub]I’m not just saying that since he seems to be getting all the looks that used to go to Tim Brown…really, I’m not…seriously.[/sub]

17

Porter and Bulger were my prize free agent acquisitions this year. Bulger would be more so if that freak Martz would play his better QB.

18

My free agent moves have been less than stellar. Pennington has turned out nice, but I made that move late in the season. Emmitt could end up being the last piece to the playoff puzzle. Branch was a great cog when Brown was hurt but has slipped alot since he’s been back. I’ve been lucky in which weeks I start role players like Andre Davis, and Mike Hollis. The real diamond in the rough was Moe Williams though, he’s been shut out the last 2 weeks, but he was a machine producing 15 yards and a TD every week before then.

The worst part is that Oakland always seems to be playing in primetime, or at least is the only afternoon game we get to watch here. So my roomate hears me bitching and screaming at Gannon for overlooking Brown week in and week out. I’ve grown to despise Porter and Gannon as a result.

19

Mullinator - You’re right, of course. Crap, I’ve gotta make a file on these guys…