NFL Picks - Week 16

Well, here’s your primer.

Saturday Games
Miami @ Minnesota 12:30pm (Miami by 3)
I think Miami is going to cover easily since Minnesota isn’t the type of team that I see playing well on just pride, however their defense is improving and they tend to play well at home. I’m not real comfortable with this game, but the others look worse so I’m making it a OMNI pick.

San Francisco @ Arizona 4:00pm (San Francisco by 4)
Too few reasons for SF to play in this one, and even though it is Arizona, its still a road game. Lots of question marks with who will and won’t start, especially on the short week. 49ers win, but I’m not going to put money on them covering, just in case. However if I change my mind about one of the other games, this would be the one I’d change to with SF covering.

Philadelphia @ Dallas 7:30pm (Philadelphia by 6½)
I’m not sure I can envision Dallas scoring at all in this one. And based on that, I’m taking the Eagles to win and cover. It should matter too much if McNabb starts or not, any QB they play will probably eat up the weak Dallas secondary. Last I checked this team has owned Dallas.

Hope to comment on a few of these tomorrow.

Sunday Games
Bufafalo @ Green Bay 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)
Chicago @ Carolina 12:00pm (Carolina by 3)
Detroit @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10½)
Houston @ Washington 12:00pm (Washington by 6½)
New Orleans @ Cincinnati 12:00pm (New Orleans by 7)
N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 5)
San Diego @ Kansas City 12:00pm (OFF)
This game is actually listed as a 2 pt spread with KC favored in the Thursday papers.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville 12:00pm (Tennessee by 3)
St. Louis @ Seattle 3:05pm (Seattle by 1)
Cleveland @ Baltimore 3:15pm (Baltimore by 3)
Denver @ Oakland 3:15pm (Oakland by 4)
N.Y. Jets @ New England 7:30pm (New England by 4)

Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay 8:00pm (Tampa Bay by 4½)

My OMNI picks were:

Miami -3.0
Philadelphia -6.5
Tennessee -3.0
Denver +4.0
Tampa Bay -4.5

Oh, damn. I knew I forgot something. (“Holiday time” starting to set in…)

Bandwagon picks!

1. Dolphins
It’s a logjam in the AFC East, like it seemingly always is. The Fish look like the most complete team right now, and they definitely have the guns to pull away at the end. And of course, Minnesota should be no threat. That settles it! Dolphins to…wha? They lost? Damn, ANOTHER team I can’t root for anymore, as if finding five teams at this point wasn’t hard enough as it is!

2. Eagles
Can you say “Super Bowl favorite”? Hard to argue with it at this point. (Especially after that easy win over the Cowboys. Way to go.)

3. Buccaneers
Who else is there? In the NFC South, I mean. (And with a still-viable bandwagon, for that matter.)

4. Raiders
Ooh, that 4-game losing streak could really come back to blah blah blah. Here’s to a win to make this complete moot.

5. 49ers
See note under Buccaneers; substitute “West” for “South”.

Top 5 bandwagon standings:

  1. 25 - Eagles
  2. 20.5 - Buccaneers
  3. 17 - Bills, Dolphins
  4. Packers - 14.5

Wow. The birds (not the Dirty Birds, the other birds) have it all but sewn up. Really shows you how far they’ve come.

Sunday Games
Bufafalo @ Green Bay 12:00pm (Green Bay by 6½)
My gut tells me that this game is going to be a whole lot more of a test for Green Bay than people expect. Sure Bledsoe has had a couple of off weeks, but the Packers secondary is still dinged up and isn’t as good as the last couple weeks stats show. I have a feeling that if the weather isn’t too horrible (and its not supposed to be) that Price, Moulds and Reed could have pretty nice days. Now, it all comes down how the Buffalo D contains the force that is Brett Favre in freezing weather. I’m not sure that they will, but I’m going to go out on a limb and pick this as my “shocker” game of the week. You al know there’s always one, and I’m taking this one. Bills break the Favre streak with a upset W.

Chicago @ Carolina 12:00pm (Carolina by 3)
This game should be ugly. They winner might be the loser of the Byron Leftwich derby (probably the second QB on the board). Tradition states that the Bears will begin stringing together a series of meaningless wins to move from the top 3 draft position to somewhere in the 8-10 range, where they’ll fail to draft an impact guy. I’m not gonna bother discussing the specifics of the match-up, Bears win the upset…just because.

Detroit @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10½)
10½? Thats seems pretty high for a team thats been somewhat exposed. However the Lions really suck ass on the road and they are Harrington-less. I just don’t see McMahon playing the mistake free ball he’ll need to to pull of the W. However, my gut tells me that Atlanta won’t quite manage to cover here, maybe a 10 point win. Falcons win, Lions cover.

Houston @ Washington 12:00pm (Washington by 6½)
Another pig of a game. Houston’s D should actually give the Washington QB circus a tough time. The Redskins D is good enough to shut down the Texans, so they’ll probably get away with a win. But, its starting to become a trend, I’m picking the underdogs to cover.

New Orleans @ Cincinnati 12:00pm (New Orleans by 7)
Don’t know what to think of the Saints. Haslett really looks like a terrible coach at times, even though he’s done a pretty good job of getting this franchise on its feet. He seems to really struggle with his in-game decisions. All that said this is the Bengals. They are almost definately going to win one more game, and it could be this one, but I’m not going to put money on it. However I can envision the wheels coming off in a big way for the Saints here. Part of me gets the impression that the talented guys on the Bengals have really given up. If they were less jaded they could be dangerous, but I’ll go with the Saints to manage the win. Just to be feisty I’ll go with the Bungles to cover in this unpredictable game.

N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 5)
Finally the two paper tigers meet. Who’s going to walk away the winner and have a line on the playoffs? I think the Indy defense matches up against the Giants offense better than vice versa, and since its at home the Colts are the smart pick to win. The Giants will be game, but they will just barely miss covering here.

San Diego @ Kansas City 12:00pm (OFF)
I was excited when I read the Sun Times and it said that the books had put this game back up on the board as a KC favorite. But then it appears that my pick 5 pool didn’t get that memo. I imagine the spreads have been all over the place the last few days, and I’m too lazy to see where its at now. Its pointless anyways, the Chargers are going to walk away with this one with Holmeson the bench. If its anything smaller than 10 points, the Chargers win and cover and LT has a treeeeemendous day.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville 12:00pm (Tennessee by 3)
Titans need to prove that they are for real in this dangerous divisional trap game. They will, I think Coughlin’s knack for getting his guys to play for him in meaningless games is gone. He’s burned too many bridges and pissed off too many people. There is still alot of talent on the Jags roster, but that tiny 3 point spread isn’t enough to scare me away. Titans win and cover.

St. Louis @ Seattle 3:05pm (Seattle by 1)
Let the Marc Bulger experience continue. I think he’s gonna have a nice little day here. And I think Holmgren loses his job in this game, getting spanked at home by a chippy Rams team. Not sure why I think the Faulk-less Rams will dominate here, but its just a gut feel. Can’t argue it. Rams win and cover.

Cleveland @ Baltimore 3:15pm (Baltimore by 3)
Both teams need it. The Browns will get it. They win and cover cause I hate the Ravens. Good enough for ya?

Brief aside, anyone have an opinion on if I should start the Rams D or the Baltimore D in my fantasy league? Statistically the Ravens are the better choice, but my gut is screaming for these two teams fates to change. I think the wheels come off for the Seahawks and the New Browns spank the Old Browns. If I really was confident in that I’d start the Rams…

Denver @ Oakland 3:15pm (Oakland by 4)
I’m running out of energy here, so these last few might be brief. I’m thinking the Raiders will run out of steam against the Broncos. They are seriously pissed afgter the last meeting, and the Raiders might have been exposed last week. The Denver defense is capable of playing the same scheme as the Dolphins did. That and the points are plenty of reason for me to think that Shanny gets one over Davis. Broncos upset.

N.Y. Jets @ New England 7:30pm (New England by 4)
New England is going to win and cover. I’m not real comfortable because the both teams seem to play up and down to whoever they are against each week. The defending champs need it more and I think they’ll get it at home. The crowd will be geeked and its in primetime. The bigger the spotlight, the better the Pats seem to play lately.

Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay 8:00pm (Tampa Bay by 4½)
The Bucs are going to destroy Pittsburgh. The Bucs D will shut down the Steelers offense no metter what Maddox or Stewart do. This is the kind of game that could have people going to be early. The Buc D might out score their O, but they’ll definately out score the Pitssburgh O. Ok, so maybe it won’t be that bad, but all the match ups favor the Bucs including the venue. Bucs win and cover.

I’d like to apologize to Miami fans, but hey, it’s your team’s fault.

The Vikes did their best to hand it over to you. Dummy Culpepper still had his usual two picks (in the end zone, no less) and two fumbles. He did his part. He tried.

God, I wish they’d make a fullback out of Culpepper and pick up Jake the Snake. That, plus a good cornerback and drafting a Warren Sapp-type DE might make for a decent team.

Oh, naughty Jets, you make me sad. You lose to the Bears, and then you come to Foxboro and knock the crap out of my Pats? Well, the world no longer makes sense, and the only thing I know for sure is I want to hit someone over the head. Anyone, really. I’m not picky.

Merry Freaking Christmas

Kn(sleepy and angry)ckers

P.S.: I would like to take this opportunity to offer a snort of derisive amusement to the Dolphins. Phnuh!

Wow the hardest hit Sapp made this week was when he and Bettis collided in the pre-game warmups.