NFL Picks - Week 5

In My Humble Opinion
21

Sooooo. When the Jets start making my head hurt I’ll have no choice but to watch the Eagles.

I do have other picks (I’m 4th in my office pool, which really gets my next door cubicle-mate’s goat seeing as how the only reason I have for some of those picks is 'cause I like a team-- as opposed to the detailed analysis that you guys do.)

Giants at Dallas
No spread to worry about here. I like the Giants and hate the Cowboys. See? That’s what passes for deep analysis with me. Giants.

Kansas City at New York
Second to last in defense (right ahead of the last place Cheifs), but the Cheifs can score and the Jets can’t. I hope there was lots of tackling practice over the week. Maybe if the didn’t tackle like they were ballroom dancing it wouldn’t be so bad.
KC

New England at Miami
Like I said before, I hope the Pats crush the Dolphins. I’m a Jet fan, so I’m forced to pick against Miami.

New Orleans at Pittsburg
Saints got beat by the Lions last week, if I remember correctly. They should be hoppin’ mad about that. The Steelers are coming off their first win so they should be all pump. When I don’t know enough about the teams playing I go for the guys who’ve got a few points spotted.
Steelers.

Washington at Tennessee
Wow. Who cares?

I’m kidding! I care about all the games! I’m dedicated I tell ya! NO is my pick because they have the most underdoggest of knicknames and I like to root for the underdogs.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay should win this and cover the spread easily. My analysis? They’re the better team here.
Buffalo at Oakland
I don’t think a less than a touchdown spread means much when both teams score a lot of points, so my “go with the team with the headstart” doesn’t apply. I wanted to show solidarity with our northern neighbors and went with the Canadian team.
Arizona at Carolina
I have an irrational like of the Panthers so I picked them.
Cincinatti at Indianapolis
I have an irrational like of the Bengals. No I did’t pick them, I’m not stupid.
San Diego at Denver
No help here with the spread. Don’t know either of these teams too well. The Broncos have pretty horses.
San Francisco at St. Louis
I really should have picked SF since they’ll probably win by more than 2 touchdowns, but I’m a sentimental fool, so I went with the Rams.

Philadelphia at Jacksonville
If I turn to this game after being disgusted by the Jets and the Eagles are losing, I’m gonna cry. Crying?! There’s no crying in football!!!

Baltimore at Cleveland
I care about this game. I really do. I keep repeating to myself over and over: All the games are equally important. I am dedicated. I am dedicated. . .
Baltimore.

Green Bay at Chicago
I picked Green Bay on the off chance that Jarbaby will read about it and want to come down to New York and kick my ass-- then I’d get to meet her.

22

**Breakfast and Football. **

I just finished eating a real mans breakfast. Bacon, Eggs and Hash Browns. Would’ve had a beer but the wife was looking at me funny so I decided on OJ. I’m watching the Raiders/Bills contest and I have a question. Do any of these teams play defense? Hello? The object being to disrupt that team wearing the other uniform. :smack:

Omni I feel that bears Game is just too close to call. So I took the wimp way out.

Shibb The A’s!:wink:

23

Shibbs, how much room do you think you have to talk in Dip 1040? And in my own defense I made my moves drunk about an hour after the deadline, not that it affected me too much, but had I been sober I could have saved Marseilles. However, smack talk is welcome even if it’s deluded and wrong. :wink:

Here’s the rest of my OMNI picks: Indianapolis, New York Giants, Kansas City, New Orleans and San Diego

24

[Belated reply owing to incredibly frequent gum-ups on these boards. Is this internet bandwidth problem I hear about all the time really that serious?]

Omniscient - You may have missed it the first time (just before week 2, as I need at least one week’s worth of games which actually count), so here’s what I’m doing again. I’ve completely given up trying to predict the outcomes of these games, having been burned waaaay too many times (damn that last Super Bowl!), and I’ve realized that a lot of my picks were just who I liked that week. So I figured, heck, why not just make it official. My bandwagon picks are the five teams I most want to win that particular week. The #1 pick gets 5 points, the #2 4, and so on. Fortunes change very quickly in the NFL, and have been especially volatile this season, so don’t expect a whole lot of consistency from week to week.

I understand that there isn’t any real point to this…but when you think about it, is this really any different from how the college championship gets decided every year? :slight_smile:

Thanks for finding the column that started it all. I feel obliged to point out, though, that very few of these teams had any lasting improvment…never more obvious in the case of the “miracle” Mariners, who went on to get blasted out of the playoffs by the Yankees in 5 (in the deciding game, they lost by, what, 12 runs?), and then completely fail to make the playoffs the next year. The two most obvious cases are the Patriots and the Volunteers, but Bledsoe could have played in the Super Bowl were he absolutely needed, and how anyone see a championship decided by two sets of non-athletes with ballots and a bunch of computers as anything other than a complete joke is beyond my cognition. I also resent the idea that losing a legitimate superstar like Dan Marino or Barry Sanders is somehow a good thing…as if the extremely short-term gain somehow justifies not building a complete offense. All things said, I think this phenomenon is just a tad overblown, and I definitely don’t expect the Rams to benefit from it.

Oh, and for the last time, Colby didn’t care which one of them won! They were a unit! They made a deal and stuck with it! You scrach my back, I scratch yours! He practically confessed to it the instant the last vote was read! Why is this so hard to understand? (Okay, guaranteed no more Survivor hijacks for the remainder of the season.)

25

So I’m watching FOX and crying. . …

26

F%@king Twins!!! Forget I said anything Shibb.

In other news…I’ve only lost two so far.

Biggirl, I’m in the west whose playing?

27

The Eagles were playing and losing. This week outta drop me down a place or ten in the office pool.

28

Hail to the Redskins…!

Score! Gave me a 1 game lead in my pool, too. Whoohoo!

29

A few thoughts having just watched the second half of the Sunday night game betwen Baltimore and Cleveland.

First, I must confess I watched Soprano’s during the first half, so I missed some of it, mainly the 21 points the Ravens scored.

Why do the Ravens always seem to get every call? I’ve watched them the last two weeks and every critical call seems to go their way, does Ray Lewis and his murderig friends call the refs before the games and threaten their families?

Against Denver, his INT was blatant pass interference, including several horseshit calls down the stretch and the call that Deltha O’Neal ended up getting ejected over. This week, the offensive pass interference call on the 2 point try was crap, and the contact was initiated by the defender anyways. On the final drive Holcomb didn’t false start and that slant across the middle was definately pass interference. Complete and utter bullshit. And I hate both the Browns and Broncos, but at least gimme fair football to watch!

Also, while Theisman and McGuire (who is a fucking moron) were giving Kelly Holcomb a blowjob on air, they completely overlooked the fact that about every third pass he threw should (not could, should) have been intercepted. A few even hit Ravens right in the chest. Yes Holcomb played well in the first couple weeks, and yes he got the Browns in the game. I’ll admit that I missed the bulk of Couch’s performance, so I can’t say how he played, but Holcomb will look decent in the stat book tonite, and public sentment will probably say that if he’d started they’d have won. Nevertheless, he got very very lucky, while he made a handful of flat out great throws against the infamous prevent defense, he also could have thrown away the game at least 8 different times. The guy is decent, and I’m not sure if he does or doesn’t deserve to start in place of Couch, he wasn’t great tonite and the boys in the booth were delusional.

30

The main thing that gets overlooked in the Couch-Holcomb debate is that the Browns desperately need to get a running game. I’m not a Browns fan, but I would say that if the Browns just had a halfway decent running back, they would be a lock to make the playoffs. And if they had a top notch running back, they would be very formidable.

The stats don’t lie–there is virtually no statistical correllation between passing yardage and winning percentage in the NFL. There is a strong correllation between running yardage (both earned and allowed) and winning percentage. Being able to establish the run and to stop the other team’s running game are two of the most important factors in winning NFL games. The only other factor of similar importance is plus/minus on turnovers.

31

Omniscient - Wasn’t watching too closely (I was busy putting back up the world’s most ill-fitting window screens after cleaning them), but one thing I can definitely agree with you with is the relentless Kelly Holcomb praise. I think they were just caught up in the excitement of the Browns comeback, but this was a tad much. Personally, I found the entire 4th quarter of that game flat-out surreal. Stupid penalty after stupid penalty by the Ravens defense to keep the other side in in, giving up a huge gainer on 4th and 15 (how does that prevent defense work again?), dropping about 5,000 creampuff interceptions…and then there was that great stop on the 2-point conversion, and an interception in the endzone on the last play that was nearly run back for a touchdown. Some games are just beyond the scope of analysis, and I think this qualifies as one.

In any event, it looks like Baltimore or Cleveand is going to be the inaugural winner of the NFC North…and it wouldn’t surprise me if it turned out like the recent NFC East battles. (To quote the ever-quotable Chris Berman on one recent NFC East struggle, “It’s like they’re racing the Indy 500 with the parking brakes on!”)

everyone - Well, it had to happen sometime…I finally got totally burned on a pick. Not really a shocker, though; if anyone was going to trip me up, it was going to be the always-dangerous Broncos.

Just a few closing comments for this week -

  • I bet the that a lot of bookies are really, really regretting making the Chiefs a measly 3 point favorite. Really. I mean, putting yourself in a situation where the game’s lot tighter than most people expect it to be, and you still take a bath? What were they thinking?

  • Rams in serious trouble, yeah, no question about that. Loss of Kurt Warner really hurting them, no question (49ers send Ewing Rule fleeing with its tail between its legs).

10 game losing streak…

Hold the phone there, pard’ner! You’re counting meaningless, unofficial, not-the-real-thing, phony practice games which not only don’t count, but have no bearing on the official standings? Hey, I hear Isaac Bruce lost a flag football game during the summer, so it’s actually an 11 loss streak!

I mean, good effin’ lord, a little COMMON SENSE here, people!

Just wanted to defuse this right away, because there’s a real possibility of the Rams being the first ever team to finish a season 0-16 and if it happens, the last thing I want is to get caught in some silly debate about whether their losing streak is 17 or 21 when what should really command our attention is how the Rams became the first ever team to finish a season 0-16.

  • NFL Primetime, at the start of the Miami/New England recap, showed a photograph four Patriots made of them holding up their Super Bowl rings…on their middle fingers. Apparently, they showed it to the Dolphins right before the game to rile them up.

All I have to say is that this is one of the most DISGUSTING actions I’ve ever seen from an NFL team; this nearly tops the unspeakable treatment Lisa Olson got at the hands of…well, the Patriots. An insult to the league (you know, the entity which issued those rings and probably expects them to be treated with a certain level of respect) and fellow Patriots both.

What makes this even more unforgivable is that not only was the Patriots Super Bowl a complete FLUKE (let’s not kid ourselves, all right?), but they’ve now equalled the Dolphins in number of titles won. As far as I’m concerned, if you’re only equal, shut the frag up.

Man, I’ve got some tough choices for next week. With the Eagles getting hammered by the Jaguars, I’m not even sure who the favorites are anymore.

32

Actually the rings are bought, designed and presented by the team owner to the members of the organization. Has absolutely nothing to do with the league. Just a ritual that’s become popular, not sure when it started.

Also, the Pats were one of the few teams that actually had a reason to bitch about “respect”. They caught alot of flack saying they were the worst championship team ever in any sport. This was a bit much, and they should have been favored in the first two games of the season, I know I would have bet them. So to a degree their beef was warranted. Now, I believe they would have lost to the '99 Rams, the '85 Bears, any of the 49’er and Cowboy Super Bowl teams, and maybe every previous winner, but there wasn’t a better team last year or they would have beaten them. For a guy who just a few posts above bitches about the ridiculousness of the BCS, I’d think you’re respect the process and feat of actually playing a full regular season and playoff and then beating the concensus best team.

No, I don’t think the Pats are great, and I do think the media went overboard in critisizing them in the offseason. I do agree that is time to let the stupid “respect” angle die, they proved it going 3-0 to start the season. But for all the times that a athlete or team has whined and moaned about being disrespected, this was probably the most valid case.

33

OK, OK I want to do a mild rant on programming and this ssems to be the best place for ot.
Here goes
I live in NW Ohio, Where this week I got treated to the likeness of not 1, but 2 games from Pensylvania! And the other game? Washington. WTF?!?!?!

Yes, Detroit had a by. Yes Chicago plays tonight w/GB. Yes, the Vicking game got booted by the Twins. Yes Cleveland played at night.

But where the FUCK was the program director on this one? Could we not have been treated to a decent freekin’ game of ball? Do you think you could have spared us the Steelers for the Bengals?(*OK Not decent but at least local) Why in the name of all that is holy did we have to watch the Philly game? Could they have at least put on a decent west coast game???
I’d have rather watched the Jets for godsssake! What’s the matter with a Raider game for a change? Can a lonely Ohioan get a 49er game that’s not on MNF or ESPN?(Damn it’s tough being a fan of a west coast team in the Great Lakes) Why is it when the networks love cramming the Rams down our throat we have to miss them this week huh? Could it be the Rams suck this season? (wow,something to be happy about)
Granted, I was just ranting about getting stuck watching consistantly sucky games (Bite me Lion fans, you don’t live here) but lawsy could it get any freekin’ worse?!?
Note to the NFL: For future reference. May the fleas of a herd of buffalo infest your arm pits!

I feel better now

34

Don’t worry, TelcontarStorm, you should get to watch the Bucs game next week. Which is sort of a west coast game.

35

Ummmm, with the benefit of hindsight, would you like to reconsider?

36

As a former FOX affiliate program director, I think I can answer your questions. FOX assigns games regionally for the most part. Since you live in NW Ohio, your home market is probably Detroit. Because there was no Detroit game yesterday, FOX would assign your local affiliate the “best possible” game for the region. You got the Steelers rather than the Bengals because Pittsburgh is a) a little closer to NW Ohio, I think, and b) the Pittsburgh team doesn’t stink quite as much. You got the Philly game because that was the primary “national” game in the doubleheader time period. It went to the largest percentage of the country.

You may have preferred a West Coast team’s game, but FOX can’t accommodate every viewer’s preference. If you really want to thwart FOX’s choices, your only choice, as I see it is Sunday Ticket on DirecTV.

37

Not too bad so far. Now if the Pack will just beat the Bears…

38

I really, really don’t understand why I was forced to watch the boring, predictable, boring, stupid, and boring 49ers/Rams game. I mean, I would understand if I actually lived in the Bay Area, but I don’t. I live in the LA area. And the Rams no longer play in LA (though no one in LA seems to realize this.) We should have been watching the Chargers/Broncos game. 1) Because the Chargers are closer to LA. 2) Because this was a very important game in the AFC West division, probably one of the most important games of the year for both teams.

Stupid FOX.

39

Annie Thanks for the info. Next time I’ll direct my rant to the proper idjuts. FOX: May the fleas from a thousand buffalos infest you as well.

**Pepper ** Oh boy can I sympathize! Here’s a six pack, wish I could trade places with you girl!

A toast and a hope for a bit better scheduling in the future!

*ahem * GO NINERS!

40

Hey pepperlandgirl they play twice, you’ll probably get the next one. That one will be more inmportant, being closer to the pllayoffs and all. Besides, Denver’s gonna lose out to the Raiders anyway… D & R