NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend

The Game Room
1

Well the playoffs are starting, we have three rookie QBS, three 2nd year QBs, three Super Bowl winning QBs, and three QBs looking to make the next step. This weekend has some very interesting games…

Saturday
Cincinnati at Houston
Minnesota at Green Bay

Sunday
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Seattle at Washington

I think all four of these games are very close. I am most confident about Baltimore of Indy. Indy is a nice story and B-more has not necessarily impressed, but Indy is not really that good, IMO (I believe Football Outsiders calls them the worst 10-6 team ever) and Baltimore will have the Ray Lewis retirement as motivation.

I also like the Packers at home. Peterson has been pretty unstoppable, but the Packers have still managed to win one of the games and played to a near draw against the Vikings in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers has had another MVP caliber season, their running game is picking up just enough and the defense is getting healthy.

I reluctantly will take Cincy over Houston. Cincinnati has very good team, but just when you are ready to buy in they can lay an egg. Still Houston has been very unimpressive and I see no reason they should improve against a stout Cincy defense.

Finally the toughest game to predict, IMO. Two rookie QBs, one team hotter than a pistol, the other almost as hot, playing must-win games for weeks. The Seahawks have the much better defense, but Washington has proven they can run the ball on anybody. I will take the Redskins at home, only just.

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I thought Indy was 11-5?

But, yeah - they’re not a good 11-5.

Here’s what Bill Barnwell had to say about them over @ Grantland:

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Whoops, 11-5…worst 11-5 team ever.

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After surviving the mid 80’s to early 90’s of the Packers, I completely realize just how spoiled we are now to have a team that has been relevant in the NFL for a few years now (including a Super Bowl win!). It’s absolutely wonderful.

With that in mind, we’re at the part of the season that really matters and that I enjoy the most. Playoff professional football!!! Good teams (generally), good matchups, and a lot on the line. What’s not to love. Other than your team not being in them of course (cough Steelers! cough Bears cough).

The Packers real season starts now. I think they’ll get a relatively easy win at home against the Vikings tomorrow night. The defense will play with more urgency and tackle a lot better than they did the first two games. And Aaron Rodgers will continue to be one of, if not the, best QB in the game today. But Adrian Peterson is the best in the game too, and he’s not one to go lightly into that good night.

I’m also going against conventional wisdom in my thinking on the other games. Despite the Bengals being hot and the Texans being just awful recently, I think the Texans get the win with their defense and running game. I really look forward to the Jonathon Joseph v. AJ Green battle, but I don’t have the highest opinion of Andy Dalton, so I’ll take Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster to get over the hump and win.

I’m also going with the Colts to surprise the Ravens. I know there is no reason whatsoever to believe it, I just do. My gut is usually pretty wrong, so take it for what it is worth.

The Seahawks/Washington game is actually the one I’m least interested in. While I like RGIII, I think his hype outpaces his actual production as a passer, and that if they continue to have him run, he won’t last long in the league. I think his knee is still bugging him and that fact, combined with Seattle’s defense, will limit his production. I also love the Russell Wilson story, although I too think his style of play isn’t made for the playoffs. He’ll likely have more success against an uneven Redskins defense. I actually think the game will come down to Alfred Morris v. Marshawn Lynch more than RGIII v. Russell Wilson, though.

I’m excited for playoff football!

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RE Washington and Seattle, I thought RG III definately showed last week that he’s nowhere near recovered from his knee injury. Even his passes were affected by his inability to complete his throwing motion without pain. They beat, aided by 3 Romo intercepts, a crippled Dallas team that had no business advancing to the playoffs. The way Wilson has been playing lately combined with the team’s overall physicality, I think this will be all Seattle.

I’ll also go with Houston at home, Green Bay and, for now, Baltimore.

BTW, my record for the year was 162-77-1, so what do I know.

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Current lines:
Texans by 4.5
Packers by 8
Seahawks by 3
Ravens by 7

The line on Green Bay is the only one I would take. Houston has been sliding lately, Baltimore is very uneven (though that was also the case when they won the SB many years ago), and the Seahawks have never won a playoff game on the road, they are not about to start now.

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Not true. 1983, in Miami.

8

Against the spread??? That would be amazing.

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Has there been a Wild Card Weekend where all four road teams won? 'Cause I can definitely see that happening here…

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No, straight up. Seemed to me there were a metric buttload of upsets this year. I was in a confidence pool so record was easy to get.

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I seriously doubt the Vikes have a prayer – unless maybe we could get some scab refs to … Oh, nm.

12

Adrian Peterson could seriously gash that defense. They aren’t that great. The question is how well Ponder plays. If the Vikes had Percy Harvin their chances at a win would go WAY up.

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And if the Packers had first round picks Brian Bulaga and Derrick Sherrod on their O Line, starting linebackers Desmond Bishop and his backup DJ Smith and first rounder Nick Perry opposite Clay Matthews, and starting RB Cedric Benson, their odds to win would go way up too.

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How does that compare with how often the favored team won?

15

In Green Bay, the high temp today is supposed to be 27°, low of 19°. That might affect a team that plays indoors.

I’ll take the Bengals, Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks. I’ll be rooting for the Redskins, and it’s been a fun ride these past 7 games, but between RGIII’s leg and a sense that this team needs another year to solidify before going deep into the postseason, I think this is where the ride ends, for this year anyway. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, and I think the Redskins could win, but I wouldn’t bet on them even-up.

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I expect the Redskins game to be really close. This is based on purely scientific considerations - I’m going to the game, and the only two games I’ve seen at FedEx Field went to overtime. :slight_smile: Go Redskins!

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I’ve never been to a game at FedEx, but OTOH I watched the Redskins at RFK* while RFK was still alive. :slight_smile:

*It wasn’t RFK yet, of course - it was still D.C. Stadium. Good Lord, I’m old. At least I don’t remember Griffith Stadium. :stuck_out_tongue:

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It should be close. It’s about in line with how the talking heads at ESPN performed, not that they always pick the favorites.

His numbers only add up to 240, though, which is missing a weeks’ worth of scores.

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Story of the Skins/Hawks game isn’t RG3 but Alfy Mo. 1600 yard rookie has his biggest test yet.

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I feel confident in predicting the Falcons will sail right through this week’s game. I’m less confident about subsequent weeks, but this week, their opponent has NO chance to win.